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J.K. Dobbins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJ.K. Dobbins's Basic Stats

J.K. Dobbins
ADP: 5.5
Bye: 10
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 23.5
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.37
SPARQx (Rank): 142.70 (99%)

J.K. Dobbins's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#23 Running Back

175 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
5.5 200.6 983.1 8.6 2.2 1.5 29.1 220.7 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJ.K. Dobbins's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Dobbins tore his left ACL last Aug. 28.
  • The team has said the recovery is going well. HC John Harbaugh said in late March that Dobbins and Gus Edwards (who also tore an ACL) “may or may not” open training camp on the PUP list. But he added that they would likely be cautious with both players leading up to the regular season.
  • As a 2020 rookie, Dobbins ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade among 64 RBs with 70+ carries. He also ranked 11th among that group in elusive rating. Dobbins trailed Edwards (5th) in the 1st category but easily beat him in the 2nd.
  • Dobbins closed out 2020 leading the backfield in carries, though not far ahead of Edwards. He garnered just 13.8% of carries over the 1st 6 games in a backfield led by Mark Ingram. Dobbins then drew 31.5% for his 9 healthy games after the Week 7 bye. Edwards got 25.1% over the same span. Dobbins reached 40% carry share just twice all season.
  • He also matched exactly Edwards’ post-bye target total (4.5% of the team total) for their 9 shared games. Dobbins’ receiving role nearly disappeared down the stretch. He tallied only 2 total targets over the final 5 games.
  • Dobbins led all 3 of his Ohio State backfields in receptions (as well as carries). He averaged 9.1 yards per catch for his college career and totaled 5 TD catches.
  • In Lamar Jackson’s 3 starting seasons, Baltimore has ranked 30th, 25th and 31st in RB target share, sending 15.6% or less to the whole position each year.
  • This study of 312 NFL players who suffered ACL tears between 2013 and 2018 found that they missed more games and dipped in performance. RBs saw the largest decrease in performance, measured by Pro Football Reference approximate value.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

It’s easy to get excited about Dobbins as a player, if you watch him. But there’s a lot working against him. Before the ACL tear, he resided in a committee backfield alongside the league’s highest-volume rushing QB. His team ranks near the bottom of the league in RB target share. And then there’s the knee recovery. Even without any setbacks this summer, Dobbins still faces that extra challenge vs. others at his position. Fantasy drafters have gotten a little more apprehensive compared with early draft season, but he’s still going 21st among RBs in FFPC best-ball drafting as of this writing – in the middle of Round 4. That’s not late enough to make up for the risk. It’s right in the middle of what’s become viewed as the RB “dead zone.” And Dobbins sure looks like a potential zombie.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

J.K. Dobbins, RB BAL

1:20pm EDT 6/16/22

Ravens backfield update

Ravens HC John Harbaugh said he’s “hopeful” RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins will be ready for the regular season. Harbaugh also said that they're “on track,” so Week 1 is realistic barring a setback. Both guys will be ~1 year removed from ACL surgery come the regular season, so the question is just how much action they see in training camp. Neither player has practiced so far this spring.

View all J.K. Dobbins Shark Bites »

Ravens beat writer Jamison Hensley writes that J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards “likely won’t be available” for upcoming OTAs. Baltimore opens up OTA workouts on May 24, when both guys will be about 9 months removed from ACL tears. So we're not talking about a setback here; both guys are expected to return for training camp. Adding rookie RB Tyler Badie and veteran Mike Davis in recent days, Baltimore has the bodies to get through the spring. While the backfield looks messy now, we know this team wants to go run heavy — especially without Marquise Brown. In 3 seasons as Ravens OC, Greg Roman’s units have ranked 1st, 1st and 3rd in rush attempts.

View all J.K. Dobbins Shark Bites »

Ravens HC John Harbaugh said Monday RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are "making progress" in their recoveries from last year's torn ACLs. It's the first real update of any kind that we've gotten on these guys since they tore their ACLs in late August and early September, respectively. Harbaugh added that Dobbins and Edwards will "likely" start training camp on the PUP list. But the timing of the knee injuries makes both guys good bets to be available come Week 1.

View all J.K. Dobbins Shark Bites »

According to multiple reports, the Ravens are assuming RB J.K. Dobbins will miss the season because of the left knee injury he suffered Saturday night. The 2nd-year back is having an MRI to confirm the diagnosis today, but NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the team believes Dobbins tore the ACL. His loss obviously boosts Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Ty'Son Williams. Don't be surprised, though, if Baltimore adds another RB as rosters get trimmed down around the league.

Update: Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Dobbins is officially out for the season with an ACL tear.

View all J.K. Dobbins Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

J.K. Dobbins, RB BAL
Dynasty MVP 158.9
Position Rank #16 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
522
859
1,307
Dynasty Write-up
We'll track Dobbins' recovery from his late-August ACL tear, but we're tentatively expecting him to be ready for the start of the 2022 season. Dobbins ripped off 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie in 2020 and is only 23 years old.
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