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J.K. Dobbins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJ.K. Dobbins's Basic Stats

J.K. Dobbins
ADP: 9.6
Bye: 5
Experience: 4
Age: 25.5
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.37

SPARQx (Rank): 142.70 (99%)

J.K. Dobbins's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0 0 0
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
70.4 0.5 2.1 15.5 0.1 11.8

J.K. Dobbins's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#58 Running Back

74.6 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
9.6 96.6 404.6 2.94 0 1.4 9.8 70 0.42

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJ.K. Dobbins's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Dobbins is working back from a September Achilles tear. It was his second significant injury as a pro, following a multi-ligament left knee injury back in 2021.

Dobbins is still only 25, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever recapture early-career form. He got just $50K guaranteed on his one-year deal with the Chargers.

The good news is that he landed in a wide-open backfield under a run-loving coaching staff. If Dobbins does make it all the way back from his latest injury, he’d stand a good chance to emerge as the Chargers’ lead runner.

That makes him worth considering as a flier near the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Dobbins’ 2023 season ended with a torn Achilles in the third quarter of the opener. He underwent surgery on September 15.
  • It was Dobbins’ second severe injury as a pro. He tore his left ACL with associated LCL, meniscus, and hamstring injuries in August of 2021. Dobbins missed that entire season – and then missed eight games in 2022 due to more trouble with that knee.
  • Dobbins has played in just nine games over the last three seasons.
  • He’s been super efficient when on the field.
    • Dobbins carried 134 times for 805 yards (6.0 YPC) and nine TDs as a 2020 rookie.
    • He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 92 totes in 2022.
    • His career 5.8 yards per carry ranks first among all active RBs with 200+ career carries.
  • Dobbins has not been as good in the passing game.
    • He’s averaged just 1.5 targets and 1.1 catches per game.
    • He’s caught more than two balls in just three of 24 career games.
    • His 6.6 yards per catch and 5.1 yards per target are both well below league averages for RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Dobbins resumed running in early March and was cleared for football activities at the end of that month. He declared himself 100% recovered in late April – about 7.5 months after surgery.
  • Dobbins signed a one-year, $1.61 million deal with the Chargers. He got just $50K guaranteed, which means that he’s not a lock to make the final roster.
  • Dobbins joins a new-look Chargers backfield alongside former Ravens teammate Gus Edwards and rookie Kimani Vidal.
    • Edwards tallied career highs with 198 carries and 810 rushing yards last year. But he posted career lows in most efficiency metrics and turned 29 in April.
    • Los Angeles added Vidal in Round 6 of this spring’s draft. He led Troy in rushing in all four of his seasons on campus, including 2,793 rushing yards over the last two years. Vidal also totaled 92 career catches. The 213-pounder earned an 8.88 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
  • The Chargers have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. Both guys have long histories of run-heavy offenses. That includes four seasons spent together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in rush attempts and rush rate:
    • 2011 - 3rd, 3rd
    • 2012 - 7th, 3rd
    • 2013 - 3rd, 2nd
    • 2014 - 9th, 6th
  • It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
  • Those 49ers RB rooms were not nearly as productive as you’d think. Here’s where those teams ranked in total RB PPR points:
    • 2011 - 20th
    • 2012 - 18th
    • 2013 - 18th
    • 2014 - 29th
  • That was largely because the RBs didn’t do much in the passing game. Here’s where the 49ers’ RBs ranked in total receptions:
    • 2011 - 30th
    • 2012 - 25th
    • 2013 - 29th
    • 2014 - 31st
  • The 2023 Chargers ranked:
    • 32nd in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
    • 30th in adjusted line yards
  • The team spent the fifth overall pick of this year’s draft on OT Joe Alt. He ranked second among 278 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades.
  • L.A. also signed free-agent Bradley Bozeman, who projects to start at C. He ranked 17th among 32 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grades last year.
  • The big question with Dobbins, of course, is whether he can recapture his form after a second severe injury. A 2017 study on Achilles tears in NFL players found that:
    • 26% of players never return to play.
    • Across all positions, there was a net decrease of 23% in approximate value over the three seasons following the injury.
    • RBs saw the biggest decrease in production: a 78% decrease in approximate value in the three seasons post-injury.

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Gus Edwards, RB LAC

10:21am EDT 6/14/24

Gus Edwards Out With Undisclosed Injury, Expected Back For Camp

Chargers RB Gus Edwards is sidelined with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, HC Jim Harbaugh said on Thursday.

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Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins said Monday that he's 100% recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered last September. "It was like a walk in the park, it was like a sprained ankle," Dobbins said. "It was very easy, because I had the knee [injury] -- the knee was pretty hard. The Achilles was, I would say, easy, just because that's my mentality. It was pretty easy to me." We'll file this under "believe-it-when-we-see-it." Full health is not the same as full effectiveness. RB Cam Akers quickly made it back from an Achilles injury but hasn't been the same runner since. Dobbins still isn't a player to invest heavily in at this point. But we'll be keeping a close eye on him this spring and summer. The Chargers' backfield will be a key situation for fantasy owners to monitor, with Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and rookie Kimani Vidal duking it out for touches.

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The Chargers added Troy RB Kimani Vidal in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Despite offers from LSU and South Carolina, the Georgia native took his talents to the Sun Belt Conference. Vidal averaged 11.2 carries per game as a true freshman and led the team in rushing – something he’d do in all four seasons. But his workloads really picked up from 2022-2023 for the run-heavy Trojans. In fact, Vidal was among the busiest college RBs with 526 carries (plus 44 catches) over that stretch. He held up well, too, missing only one game due to injury in his career. At nearly 5’8, 213 pounds, Vidal has bowling ball size and runs with matching intensity. Per The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, the 22-year-old’s 94 missed tackles forced ranked second in the FBS last season. He’s not special out of the backfield, but Vidal’s tape shows a capable receiver with more pass protection refinement than the average rookie. He lands in a nice spot under run-loving HC Jim Harbaugh in a relatively wide-open backfield alongside J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. It shouldn’t be considered a surprise if Vidal pushes for snaps in 2024.

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Former Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins plans to sign a one-year contract with the Chargers, according to multiple reports. This comes after Dobbins visited several teams. He lands with the franchise that already signed his former teammate Gus Edwards. We'll see about the specific terms of Dobbins' deal, but Edwards landed a two-year pact worth $6.5 million total, with $3.375 million in guarantees. We'll bet that Dobbins gets significantly less coming off his September Achilles' tear (and checkered injury history). The former second-round pick will be interesting to watch this summer, especially in a backfield that could present open competition for touches. But Edwards stands as the better bet for work right now. And we'd bet on the Chargers adding a RB in the draft. For now, don't let Chargers RBs factor heavily into your draft plans -- despite their modest best ball ADP numbers.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

J.K. Dobbins, RB LAC
Dynasty MVP 47.5
Position Rank #93 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
157
243
416
Dynasty Write-up
Dobbins went down in Week 1 with an Achilles tear. He landed in a fine spot to rehab his value, as the Chargers' backfield is among the league's most unsettled.
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