Bottom Line

Injuries have limited Dobbins to just 23 games in three NFL seasons. He missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL and struggled to be effective until late last year.

Still, there’s enough evidence in his limited career sample size to suggest that Dobbins can be an effective runner behind a stellar Ravens’ offensive line and yield quality RB2 numbers for fantasy managers.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dobbins missed all of 2021 due to a torn ACL and struggled to return from that injury early in 2022.
  • He played six games to begin the season before undergoing a cleanup procedure on his knee and didn’t return until Week 14.
• In the context of fantasy, Dobbins logged two top-10 weekly finishes in PPR and two more within the top 30. Not a great season, but not bad in context.
• He was much better following his Week 14 return. From that point through the end of the regular season, Dobbins finished as the RB22 in PPR points per game (11.8) among qualified players with the 4th-most rushing yards per game (99.2) in that span.
• We don’t have much of a track record to go off of with Dobbins. That said, he was highly effective as a rookie in 2020 (aka the last time he was fully healthy):
  • Dobbins ranked as PFF’s 11th-highest graded RB (min. 50 carries) and finished as the RB12 in PPR points per game (16.3) among qualified players from Week 11 to Week 17 that year.
  • For context, he handled only 37.5% of the Ravens’ total carries and received only 4 targets in that span.
• A glaring hole in Dobbins’ fantasy production profile is his receiving involvement. He’s only seen 32 targets in 23 games in his career.

What to Expect in 2023

• Fantasy managers have a small sample size of what Dobbins can do when healthy, but he’s generally been a quality asset in those times.
• The Ravens’ offensive line blocking for Dobbins is also tremendous:
  • 2nd in PFF run blocking grade in 2022
  • 1st in Football Outsiders’ RB yards per carry in 2022
• New OC Todd Monken will assuredly have this Ravens offense passing the ball more than ex-OC Greg Roman ever did, but it’s difficult to say how much that’ll affect Dobbins’ pass-catching upside:
  • In four NFL seasons as an OC (Buccaneers 2016-18, Browns 2019), only three RBs have received 40 or more targets in a Monken-led offense:
    • Nick Chubb (2019): 49
    • Kareem Hunt (2019): 44
    • Jacquizz Rodgers (2018): 45
  • That’s certainly more receiving volume than Dobbins has ever received, but it’s not as though he’ll see difference-making opportunity as a pass-catcher.
• Overall, Dobbins is still only 24 years old with lots of tread left on his proverbial tires and should be considered a quality mid-RB2 in 2023.
• Dobbins opened training camp on the PUP list, although his absence seemingly has more to do with a contract dispute than his health. 2023 is the final year on Dobbins' rookie contract.