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Week 16 Running Back Preview: Jahmyr Gibbs Bounces Back
Top Fantasy RBs for Week 16
Here are the top Week 16 running backs, with usage and matchup details that drive their positioning in the Week 16 RB rankings.
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1. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
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Gibbs had one of his worst performances of the season, going for 58 total yards on 17 touches against the Rams. He continues to struggle rushing the ball. Gibbs has been under 4 yards per carry in five of the last seven games. Luckily, Gibbs' receiving output has carried his fantasy performances. The Steelers have been volatile against RBs, so Gibbs certainly could hit his ceiling with enough touches. He is a must-start.
2. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
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McCaffrey gets a Colts defense that's played the run tough lately, surrendering just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs and ranking ninth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position over the last five weeks. CMC has made his living on volume and TD production more than rushing efficiency this year, though. And he remains a strong bet for both of those things with his 49ers 5.5-point favorites with a 26-point implied total in Indianapolis on Monday night.
3. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
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Robinson gets a reeling Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs over the last five weeks. And his Falcons are implied for an inflated 25.5 points -- ninth most on the week. Expect a big game from Bijan.
4. De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
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Achane carries some rare uncertainty this week, as he’ll play alongside QB Quinn Ewers in his starting debut. Of course, the third-year RB remains a must-start. He’s hit 16 PPR points in each game and currently sits fifth among RBs in total PPR points.
5. James Cook, Buffalo Bills
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Over the past five weeks, Cook ranks fourth in PPR points per game. Next up is a Browns defense that’s allowed a lead back to score in six straight. Keep expectations high here.
6. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
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We won't pretend to be optimistic about the Colts' offense after what we saw from QB Philip Rivers last week. But Taylor at least racked up 25 carries and four targets. Those 29 opportunities were his second-most in a game all season. Week 16 brings a softer matchup against the 49ers' 21st-ranked RB defense. Taylor remains a must-start in season-long leagues.
7. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
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Barkley has garnered 20+ carries in two straight games and four of six contests since the Week 9 bye. The Washington matchup sets up as another good volume spot. And a defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry to RBs on the season adds efficiency upside.
8. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
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Jacobs hasn't practiced all week with a knee issue. His status for Saturday's game will need to be verified. We expect him to play, and if he does, he'll fall into his usual RB1 range. In Week 14, Jacobs carried 20 times for 86 yards and a TD against this Bears' defense. That fell right in line with Jacobs' season-long average of 17.9 PPR points per game (RB7). Verify his status before the game, but as long as he's good to go, Jacobs remains a top-10 fantasy option.
9. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
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Henry draws a New England run defense that’s allowed only 3.7 YPC and five season-long rushing TDs to RBs. Of course, Henry remains a must-start following games of 94 and 100 rushing yards. For the year, he slots sixth among RBs in attempts.
10. Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys
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This week should present a Williams-friendly matchup. The Chargers sit fifth in pass-defense DVOA but just 21st against the run. Williams has remained a pretty safe weekly play with 15+ carries in six straight games and just one game all season without a catch.
11. Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
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Brown’s carry share has taken a hit alongside a healthy Samaje Perine. Still, he’s remained a strong PPR producer with 7 catches in two of his past three outings. Next up is a Miami defense that’s allowed the seventh-most receptions to enemy RBs.
12. TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
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Henderson went off for 14 carries, 148 yards, and 2 TDs in Sunday's loss to Buffalo. The matchup stiffens this week vs. Baltimore, but they’re certainly not an elite unit. They’re tenth-worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed, helping boost Henderson’s profile as an RB1/2.
13. RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
Harvey has seen strong workloads in victories the past two weeks, with 16+ touches and at least one TD in three straight outings. Jacksonville brings some resistive potential on defense, but the Broncos also arrive as 5.5-point favorites. That should mean another solid-to-good workload for Harvey, who also sports eight games of 3+ receptions (dating to before J.K. Dobbins went down).
14. Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
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Per Jared's Matchups That Matter, the Vikings have the second-best matchup for the week for their running game. Jones has emerged as Minnesota's clear lead back while also ranking fourth on the team with a 14% target share since he returned from a hamstring injury. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most receptions to RBs and the second-most overall fantasy points. Jones is a mid-range RB2 but has top-12 upside in a potential breakout spot.
15. Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Irving went 16-60-0 on the ground last week but only had one catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. He ran fewer routes than Rachaad White. The only RB to score in the game was Sean Tucker. Irving’s lack of routes and red zone touches makes him a bit of a risky bet, but Irving is still being ramped up after his injury. The Panthers defense has struggled against talented RBs, so Irving’s upside makes him a start this week.
16. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Etienne's clearly no lock for strong efficiency, with six games of less than 3.9 yards per carry among his past seven. But he's also coming off consecutive multi-TD games and looks like one of the league's best workload bets with rookie Bhayshul Tuten out. Denver's not an easy matchup on any front, but it has proved tougher to passing offenses than to RB scoring.
17. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
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Played on Thursday
18. Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
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Volume, particularly in the passing game, drives Jeanty's value. He ranks seventh among all RBs with 64 targets, but this week looks rough for the Raiders' offense. Las Vegas is implied to score a minuscule 11.5 points against Houston's top-ranked defense. Jeanty should be busy as an outlet receiver, but he will continue to struggle to find running room. He's a low-end RB2 with limited ceiling.
19. D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
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The Packers did a solid job defending Swift in Week 14. Green Bay held him to 63 rushing yards and 11.2 PPR points in its 28-21 win. In Week 16's rematch, Swift looks like a good bet to see an increased role in the passing game with the Bears down two of their top three WRs. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs, but Swift's consistent production and role in the passing game keep him firmly in mid-range RB2 territory.
20. Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Gainwell went 13-80-0 on the ground and also went 7-46-0 through the air. Gainwell’s usage as a receiver has made him a much better PPR play than teammate Jaylen Warren. Warren was questionable with an illness, but Gainwell’s effectiveness could continue giving him a bigger role. Gainwell has become a start in PPR leagues moving forward, even against a tough Lions’ rush defense.
21. Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
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Dowdle played clearly ahead of Chuba Hubbard last week. He went 16-49-1 on the ground and also caught a pass for 5 yards. Dowdle handled the only goal-line carry of the game, which resulted in his TD. The Buccaneers have struggled against some RBs, but they are far from a consistent soft run defense. Dowdle can be started with confidence in his volume.
22. Breece Hall, New York Jets
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Hall gave way to Isaiah Davis late in last week's blowout loss to the Jaguars, finishing with just 12 carries and two targets. The Jets are only" 4.5-point underdogs to the Saints this weekend
23. Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
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Judkins draws a Buffalo run defense that's allowed a league-high 18 rushing TDs to RBs. They also sit 27th in PFF's rushing grades and 31st in run defense DVOA. While the matchup is nice, the worry here is that Buffalo plays from ahead as 10.5-point favorites. Judkins also enters with only 1.6 receptions per game.
24. Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
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It briefly looked like Tyrone Tracy Jr. might lose significant touches to Devin Singletary, but Tracy has put those concerns to rest. Since Week 11, Tracy has played 64% of New York's snaps, taken 54% of the RB carries, and posted overall RB16 production. He's out-touched Singletary 18-6 last week and gets a neutral matchup against Minnesota this week. Tracy's recent volume and production -- especially as a receiver -- keep him in RB2 territory.
25. Woody Marks, Houston Texans
Marks' volume has been great, but he has shown a slight propensity to get banged up in games. He missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury that limited his snaps last week. As long as he starts, Marks is a strong bet for top-24 numbers thanks to his volume and a matchup where the Texans are massive favorites against a Raiders' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. However, if the Texans get out to a big lead, Marks could have his workload limited, which brings slight risk to his upside.
26. Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals
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Bam Knight's season-ending ankle injury leaves Carter atop Arizona's depth chart. He out-carried Emari Demercado 14 to one and out-targeted him four to three last week. And HC Jonathan Gannon has been talking Carter up this week. Don't expect huge rushing volume in this insanely pass-heavy Cardinals offense. But Carter has already averaged 4.8 targets and 3.8 catches over his last five games and could see even more work in the passing game vs. Atlanta on Sunday.
27. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Warren went 12-33-0 on the ground last week and 3-15-0 through the air. He took a backseat to Kenneth Gainwell, who had 5 more touches than Warren. Gainwell has now outscored Warren in PPR leagues in four of the last five games. Warren’s lack of usage in the passing game makes him more of a flex play this week against a tough Lions rush defense.
28. Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
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Hampton remained behind Kimani Vidal in passing-down snaps in his second game back. But the Chargers have shown their preference to get the first-round rookie the ball. The split lowers both his floor and ceiling, and Dallas' run D has improved since acquiring DT Quinnen Williams. But the Cowboys appear likely to miss Williams (concussion) this week, helping that rushing matchup for Hampton.
29. Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
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Pollard has been a marvel over the last two weeks. He has gone 40-273-3 in total touches over that time. He is clearly playing over Tyjae Spears, handling 71.4% of RB touches over that period. Unfortunately, Pollard runs into a tough match-up against the Chiefs, who have only given up one 100-yard rusher this season. Pollard can be a flex play, but don’t expect the same fantasy production you’ve seen over the last two weeks.
30. Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
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Played on Thursday
31. Kyle Monangai, Chicago Bears
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D'Andre Swift has been limited with a groin injury. That could lead to a few more carries for Monangai this week. As it stands, Monangai is already commanding 44% of Chicago's RB carries since Week 11. However, his production has slipped in the last two weeks, including a 6.7-point outing against the Packers in Week 14. View Monangai as a solid Flex option with a decent chance of earning 15-plus touches.
32. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
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Hubbard only went 8-29-0 on the ground last week with a catch for 9 yards. Most of his work came on third- and fourth-down situations. Being clearly behind Dowdle makes Hubbard's start going forward. The Buccaneers have struggled against some RBs, but they are far from a consistent soft run defense.
33. David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
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Montgomery went 7-32-1 on the ground last week, his third straight game with a TD. His role has decreased since HC Dan Campbell has taken over the playcalling duties. The lack of snaps makes Montgomery a TD-dependent flex only.
34. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
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Pacheco went 11-21-0 on the ground last week, continuing to split work with Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith. The lack of work and ineffective run blocking from the Chiefs' O-line make Pacheco a poor play. The Titans' defense doesn’t hel,p allowing only 3.3 yards per carry to RBs, best in the league.
35. Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers
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Vidal has maintained a passing-down lead over Omarion Hampton since the latter's return from IR, likely driven by Vidal's superior pass-protection skills. That, plus a split run game, has garnered Vidal 15 and 13 touches in Hampton's two games back. A run-leaning offense has helped that volume for both players. We'll see whether game script can support that this week against a slightly favored Dallas squad. Ultimately, Vidal's just a deep option with modest upside.
36. Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
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Played on Thursday
37. Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
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Spears only had 15 touches over the last two weeks, with Pollard emerging as a consistent producer from the RB position. Spears still flashed, going 3-34-0 last week, averaging 11.3 yards per carry. Even so, he won’t get enough touches to be overly relevant. Spears should stay on the bench if possible.
38. Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
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Played on Thursday
39. Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
This week's game script favors Aaron Jones, but Mason is on the Flex radar. Since Jones returned from a hamstring injury in Week 8, Mason has only taken 38% of Minnesota's backfield carries. However, he leads the team in short-yardage attempts, and the Giants have allowed 13 rushing TDs to RBs this season. View Mason as a Flex option with a decent shot at punching in a TD in a favorable matchup.
40. Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
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Allgeier is in a nice spot this weekend. His Falcons are 3-point favorites with a 25.5-point implied total vs. a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs over the last five weeks. It's enough to make Allgeier an RB3 or Flex option in non-PPR leagues.
41. Audric Estime, New Orleans Saints
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With RB Devin Neal out and RB Alvin Kamara likely out for Week 16, New Orleans' backfield is down to Estime and Evan Hull. Hull out-carried Estime 4 to 3 last week, while Estime out-targeted Hull 3 to 0. Snaps were 39% to 31% in favor of Estime. We'd lean Estime if picking between the two, but we're ultimately guessing at how work will be split. And this Saints backfield hasn't been great for fantasy purposes all season. In fact, New Orleans ranks dead last in total RB PPR points.
42. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
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In three games back from injury, Stevenson’s carry shares have gone 22%, 48% (in a blowout), and 26%. He’s a low-end Flex option as a road underdog vs. Baltimore.
43. Evan Hull, New Orleans Saints
With RB Devin Neal out and RB Alvin Kamara likely out for Week 16, New Orleans' backfield is down to Hull and Audric Estime. Hull out-carried Estime 4 to 3 last week, while Estime out-targeted Hull 3 to 0. Snaps were 39% to 31% in favor of Estime. We'd lean Estime if picking between the two, but we're ultimately guessing at how work will be split. And this Saints backfield hasn't been great for fantasy purposes all season. In fact, New Orleans ranks dead last in total RB PPR points.
44. Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals
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Since Perine returned from injury in Week 13, he’s handled a sizable 45% carry share. He remains a poor bet for targets behind a healthy Chase Brown, but his current role supplies some deep-league Flex value. Miami presents a neutral matchup for RBs.
45. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
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Hunt went 6-12-0 on the ground last week, continuing to split work with Isiah Pacheco and Brashard Smith. The lack of work and ineffective run blocking from the Chiefs' O-line make Hunt a poor play that is TD-dependent. The Titans defense doesn’t help,p allowing only 3.3 yards per carry to RBs, best in the league.
46. Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals
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Demercado should pick up some extra work with Bam Knight joining James Conner and Trey Benson on IR. But Demercado was out-carried 14 to one and out-targeted four to three by Michael Carter last week. Demercado can't be trusted in Week 16 fantasy lineups.
47. Devin Singletary, New York Giants
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Singletary only earned six touches last week, but had averaged 15 touches in New York's previous three games. The Giants went pass-heavy last week, but could revert to a more ground-oriented approach against a solid Vikings' pass defense. There's enough potential for Singletary to be a low-end Flex option in deeper leagues, but his floor is worrisome.
48. Chris Rodriguez, Washington Commanders
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Rodriguez looks ready to return from last week's injury after getting back to full practices this week. He gets a Philly matchup that's been neutral for RB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed and ranks 17th in rush DVOA. That presents some upside. But arriving as 5.5-point underdogs with a sub-20-point team projection counters with downside. It's also tough to know how much work he takes back after Jacory Croskey-Merritt delivered a nice 18-96-1 rushing line against the Giants last week. Rodriguez's total lack of receiving production adds risk to his profile and ultimately makes him forgettable outside of non-PPR formats (and not even super attractive in those).
49. Rachaad White, TB
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White only received one carry last week. He's also losing goal-line reps to Sean Tucker, so there isn't much of a path to value behind Bucky Irving. Carolina has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs, but White's lack of touches makes him a risky fantasy option in Week 16.
50. Brian Robinson Jr., San Francisco 49ers
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Robinson has finished with between 7 and 9 carries in 5 straight games. He's totaled just two catches and one TD over that span, though. Robinson is a weak fantasy play against a Colts defense that's held opposing RBs to 3.3 yards per carry over the last five weeks.
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