Welcome to Week 16’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 16 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 16!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Steelers at Lions (52.0)
2. Chargers at Cowboys (49.5)
3. Falcons at Cardinals (48.5)
4. Patriots at Ravens (48.0)
5. Bengals at Dolphins (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Rams at Seahawks (42.5)
13. Bills at Browns (41.5)
14. Jets at Saints (40.5)
15. Raiders at Texans (38.0)
16. Chiefs at Titans (37.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Lions (29.5)
t-2. Eagles (26.25)
t-2. Texans (26.25)
t-4. Bills (26.0)
t-4. 49ers (26.0)
t-6. Bengals (25.75)
t-6. Cowboys (25.75)
t-6. Falcons (25.75)
t-6. Ravens (25.75)

Fewest Projected Points

28. Commanders (19.25)
t-29. Jets (17.25)
t-29. Titans (17.25)
31. Browns (15.5)
32. Raiders (11.75)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. 49ers (64.1)
2. Bears (63.9)
3. Texans (63.8)
4. Cardinals (63.6)
t-5. Giants (63.1)
t-5. Broncos (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Dolphins (59.2)
29. Ravens (59.1)
30. Steelers (58.6)
31. Titans (58.3)
32. Raiders (56.8)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Jets at Saints (26.2 seconds)
2. Eagles at Commanders (26.8 seconds)
3. Steelers at Lions (27.3 seconds)
4. Chiefs at Titans (27.4 seconds)
t-5. Packers at Bears (27.7 seconds)
t-5. Falcons at Cardinals (27.7 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Raiders at Texans (28.8 seconds)
13. Buccaneers at Panthers (28.9 seconds)
14. Chargers at Cowboys (29.2 seconds)
15. 49ers at Colts (29.3 seconds)
16. Bengals at Dolphins (29.6 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Rams at Seahawks

The forecast calls for a 40-50% chance of rain with winds around 20 mph and gusts up over 30. The rain shouldn't be impactful, but the wind will be. Per Rotogrinders' Kevin Roth, we could see gusts of 30-40 mph in the first half, tapering off to around 30 mph in the second. We'd shy away from using either kicker in this game. We're not adjusting projections for the offenses but could certainly see both teams lean a bit more toward the run. 

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Chiefs at Titans (+58.4%)
2. Packers at Bears (+53.2%)
3. Eagles at Commanders (+49.1%)
4. Patriots at Ravens (+46.7%)
5. Colts vs. 49ers (+45.8%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Vikings at Giants (-4.4%)
29. Jets at Saints (-5.8%)
30. Titans vs. Chiefs (-12.5%)
31. Browns vs. Bills (-32.4%)
32. Raiders at Texans (-40.7%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Justin Herbert at Cowboys (+43.4%)
2. Quinn Ewers vs. Bengals (+26.6%)
3. Jalen Hurts at Commanders (+23.1%)
4. Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers (+19.4%)
5. Tyler Shough vs. Jets (18.0%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Trevor Lawrence at Broncos (-18.7%)
29. Jaxson Dart vs. Vikings (-20.9%)
30. Marcus Mariota vs. Eagles (-22.0%)
31. Dak Prescott vs. Chargers (-24.0%)
32. Geno Smith at Texans (-31.0%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Colts vs. 49ers (+11.6%)
2. Vikings at Giants (+10.3%)
3. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+9.1%)
4. Falcons at Cardinals (-1.1%)
5. Packers at Bears (-2.5%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Texans vs. Raiders (-24.3%)
29. Saints vs. Jets (-26.7%)
30. Seahawks vs. Rams (-28.3%)
31. Patriots at Ravens (-29.3%)
32. Raiders at Texans (-50.6%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+34.3%)
2. Vikings at Giants (+29.7%)
3. Browns vs. Bills (+19.6%)
4. Chargers at Cowboys (+18.1%)
5. Texans vs. Raiders (+16.3%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Raiders at Texans (-15.6%)
t-29. Titans vs. Chiefs (-17.3%)
t-29. Bears vs. Packers (-17.3%)
31. Steelers at Lions (-18.1%)
32. Seahawks vs. Rams (-22.7%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers at Cowboys (+31.3%)
2. Steelers at Lions (+23.7%)
3. 49ers at Colts (+20.7%)
4. Packers at Bears (+17.2%)
5. Lions vs. Steelers (+16.7%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cowboys vs. Chargers (-14.9%)
29. Rams at Seahawks (-15.1%)
30. Giants vs. Vikings (-20.3%)
31. Raiders at Texans (-23.3%)
32. Commanders vs. Eagles (-24.6%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Dolphins CBs Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Ashtyn Davis

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Steelers CB Brandin Echols

Chiefs WRs Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown vs. Titans CBs Marcus Harris, Darrell Baker, and Kaiir Elam

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Antonio Hamilton, and Noah Igbinoghene

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, and Amik Robertson

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Tre Harris vs. Cowboys CBs Reddy Steward, DaRon Bland, and Shavon Revel

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Jaguars CBs Greg Newsome and Montaric Brown

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Bears CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Chargers CBs Donte Jackson, Cam Hart, and Tarheeb Still

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Bengals CB D.J. Turner

Jaguars WRs Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Parker Washington vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Raiders WRs Tre Tucker and Jack Bech vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+80.4%)
2. Eagles at Commanders (+31.3%)
3. Bengals at Dolphins (+27.2%)
4. Eagles vs. Steelers (+20.0%)
5. Falcons at Cardinals (+19.6%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Patriots at Ravens (-22.5%)
29. Texans vs. Raiders (-24.6%)
30. Commanders vs. Eagles (-33.9%)
31. Cardinals vs. Falcons (-35.0%)
32. Browns vs. Bills (-44.0%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bills at Browns (+96.2%)
2. Texans vs. Raiders (+76.3%)
3. Giants vs. Vikings (+72.5%)
4. Jets at Saints (+47.3%)
5. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+45.9%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Chargers at Cowboys (-42.1%)
29. Bears vs. Packers (-46.0%)
30. 49ers at Colts (-55.8%)
31. Steelers at Lions (-61.2%)
32. Seahawks vs. Rams (-61.7%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Charlie Smyth vs. Jets (+39.2%)
2. Zane Gonzalez at Cardinals (+29.3%)
3. Cameron Dicker at Cowboys (+25.5)
4. Andres Borregales at Ravens (+19.9%)
5. Ben Sauls vs. Vikings (+17.2%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Tyler Loop vs Patriots (-15.9%)
29. Harrison Mevis at Seahawks (-23.5%)
30. Blake Grupe vs. 49ers (-27.5%)
31. Wil Lutz vs. Jaguars (-33.0%)
32. Daniel Carlson at Texans (-45.4%)