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Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJustin Jefferson's Basic Stats

Justin Jefferson
ADP: 1.2
Bye: 13
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.43
Speed Score: 104.90
Burst Score (Rank): 126.80 (79%)

Justin Jefferson's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
7.4 105.6 0.7 14.9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
7.3 103.6 0.6 14.1

Justin Jefferson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Wide Receiver

215.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
1.2 116.1 1557.1 9.5 3.9 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJustin Jefferson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

BREAKING NEWS – Jefferson is arguably the best wideout in the league, fresh off a dominant and historic 2022 season.

Let’s make this one easy for everyone; if you want to win your fantasy football league in 2023, you should try and roster Jefferson.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Jefferson is arguably the best WR in the NFL. He concluded 2022 as the WR1 overall.
  • He logged nine top-5 weekly finishes, with three other games inside the top 24. Jefferson added five games outside the top 40, probably just to prove he’s human.
  • Jefferson led the Vikings in target share (28.6%), air yards share (38.4%), and weighted opportunity rating (0.67).
  • All those numbers stayed nearly identical after TE T.J. Hockenson arrived via trade vs. before.
  • Among 30 WRs who saw 100+ targets last season, Jefferson ranked third in PFF receiving grade, second in yards per route run (2.62), and first in targets (176) and yards after catch (632).

What to Expect in 2023
  • Jefferson became the youngest player in NFL history to lead the league in catches (128) and receiving yards (1,809) in 2022.
  • Since entering the league in 2020, Jefferson ranks third in catches (324), first in receiving yards (4.825), ninth in receiving TDs (25), and second in total PPR points (973.3) among all WRs.
  • Even with the addition of 2023 first-round pick WR Jordan Addison, Jefferson figures to be among the league leaders in every relevant statistical category. The Vikings ranked fifth in pass rate last year and third in pass attempts. We see no reason to expect a 2023 shift in philosophy.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Jordan Addison, WR MIN

5:00pm EDT 9/10/23

Jordan Addison scores in opener

Vikings WR Jordan Addison scored his first career TD in Week 1. Kirk Cousins found the rookie deep for a 39-yard score on 3rd and 11. Addison’s 6 targets matched K.J. Osborn’s total and was predictably behind Justin Jefferson’s tally (12). Still, you have to view Addison’s debut as a success. The 21-year-old should prove useful as a matchup-based WR3 going forward. We expect the Vikings to remain a pass heavy squad in 2023.

View all Jordan Addison Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson reported for this week's mandatory minicamp, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert. Jefferson skipped voluntary workouts earlier this offseason, presumably because he's looking for a new contract. We'll see if he and the Vikings can come to an agreement before the start of the season.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is not at this week's OTAs. "I hope to see him as soon as possible," HC Kevin O'Connell said Tuesday. "But I think as we work towards minicamp we'll have a real clean cut plan of what that looks like, and hopefully get some work ... It's one of those things that we've had great dialogue throughout the offseason. A lot of that will stay between Justin and I. But I just know that he's getting work, wherever he's spending this offseason. Look forward to having him here when he decides to come up." Jefferson's absence is likely related to ongoing contract negotiations. There's been no talk of a holdout at this point, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on the situation. Minnesota's mandatory minicamp is June 13-14.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

The Vikings selected USC WR Jordan Addison with the 23rd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. broke out as an 18-year-old true freshman at Pittsburgh and then exploded for 1,593 yards and 17 TDs on 100 catches as a sophomore, winning the 2021 Biletnikoff Award as the top receiver in college football. Addison transferred to USC last offseason to play with HC Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams. His stat line wasn’t as spectacular as the previous year, but he still averaged a strong 5.4 catches, 79.5 yards, and 0.73 TDs per game, leading the Trojans in all three categories. Addison’s tape shows a refined route runner and explosive mover who can win at all levels of the field. The concern? He’s just 5’11 and 173 pounds. That weight lands him in the third percentile among WRs invited to the Combine since 1999 and would make him a bit of an outlier if he develops into a high-end fantasy producer. Over the past ten seasons, there have only been four WRs under 180 pounds to top 1,000 receiving yards (DeSean Jackson, John Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Darnell Mooney). Addison projects as an instant starter alongside Justin Jefferson. The rookie should absorb the 107 targets left behind by Adam Thielen.

View all Jordan Addison Shark Bites »

Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell said Friday that his regulars will start this weekend's game vs. the Bears but that there's a plan to potentially pull them early to get backups some reps, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert. The Vikings can't get the NFC's #1 seed and can only climb from #3 to #2 with a 49ers loss to the Cardinals. QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, WRs Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and TE T.J. Hockenson are candidates to leave Sunday's game early.

View all Kirk Cousins Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Dynasty MVP 196.2
Position Rank #1 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
614
1,004
1,830
Dynasty Write-up
Jefferson kicked off his career with three straight seasons of 1,400+ yards. The only question here is his long-term QB.
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