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Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Justin Jefferson
MIN

WR MIN

#5 Wide Receiver

200 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 202
40 Time: 4.43

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

7.3

DS Projection

11.6

Consensus

38 other sites
12

Low Ceiling

16.2

Rest of
Season

11.7

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.1 85.8 0.5 11.6
Weekly Writeup
Jefferson has turned in 4 straight top-20 fantasy finishes. Next up is a Panthers defense that Football Outsiders ranks dead last in coverage vs. #1 WRs.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.7 80 0.6 11.7
Week 5
Although fantasy managers had to be pleased with Jefferson reaching the 100-yard mark for the 2nd time in 3 games, there was also disappointment. Going into halftime, Jefferson already had gone over 100 yards, and he only added an additional 20 after the break. And facing a defense that had no answer for him, the Vikings preferred to feature Alexander Mattison as both a runner and receiver, which allowed them to play a ‘Mike ZImmer’ type of game in which they won with defense and a mostly conservative offense.

For those who invested an early-round draft pick on Jefferson, that pick is paying off very well and that should continue to be the case. He’s yet to have fewer than 7 targets in a game, and he’s averaging 9 per game. Not Davante Adams territory, but certainly excellent usage. Not only has he scored in 3 of the last 4 games, but he’s averaging over 100 yards in the last 3, and a repeat of his 1,400 yard rookie season is definitely in play.
Week 4
It was just another day in the office for Jefferson, who once again paced the team in receiving. Jefferson secured a solid 6-84-1 line vs. a tough Browns secondary that has allowed the 6th fewest points to the position. Jefferson continues to have great usage in this offense as he paces the team in deep targets and sees about a quarter of his target on the inside. This usage gives Jefferson upside every week as the main deep threat and a solid floor as he continues to pace the team in routes.
This week the Vikings take on the Lions, who have been dominated by opposing #1 WRs. This includes big games from Deebo Samuel (9-189-1) and Davante Adam (8-121). This matchup makes Jefferson an intriguing DFS play in Week 5.
Week 1
Jefferson was relatively quiet, compared with Adam Thielen’s 9-92-2 receiving line in the Week 1 loss at Cincinnati. But the 2nd-year wideout fell just 1 target short of Thielen’s 10 and caught 5 of his looks for a solid 71 yards. Jefferson nearly had a TD of his own as well, but a 4th-quarter catch-and-run found him going down at the 1-yard line. (And whether he actually touched down before crossing the goal line was arguable.)

The surprise in this game was 3rd WR K.J. Osborn matching Jefferson’s 9 targets. We’ll see about Osborn’s role and target share going forward, but we’re certainly not going to let his emergence -- whether for a single game or more -- make us worry for Jefferson.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • You probably already know it, but Jefferson had a historic rookie season. Some highlights:
    • 5th most PPR points per game ever among rookie WRs
    • 22nd in that category among all RBs, WRs and TEs, combined
    • 7th most receptions for a rookie (on 10th most targets)
    • Most receiving yards ever
    • Tied for just 20th in TD catches
  • That last 1 is a highlight because it leaves room for upside. Jefferson’s 8% TD rate ranked 84th among all targeted WRs. The average for the entire position: 7%.
  • Jefferson saw 23.1% of his targets in the red zone, compared with 28.3% for teammate Adam Thielen, according to Pro Football Focus. Jefferson trailed Thielen just 30-28 in total red-zone looks, though, and caught only 4 fewer passes in that range. Thielen scored 14 times on plays from the 20-yard line and in, however. Jefferson got 5 TDs there.
  • The rookie garnered just 8 end-zone targets vs. Thielen’s 20, scoring twice on such passes compared with 13 for Thielen. Even if Thielen remains the favored target in that range, Jefferson should be in for some positive regression after snagging just 25% of his end-zone targets.
  • The 2 finished similarly in average depth of target (Thielen 12.54, Jefferson 12.01) and catch rate (Jefferson 72.7%, Thielen 69.8%). Next Gen Stats also had them near-identical in separation: Thielen at 2.7 yards on average, Jefferson at 2.6.
  • Jefferson wasn’t really an offensive factor in the season’s 1st 2 games. Olabisi Johnson started ahead of the rookie, and Jefferson drew just 3 targets in each of those contests. He totaled 5 receptions for 70 yards.
  • Over the final 14 weeks, Jefferson averaged 8.5 targets, 5.9 receptions, 95 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. That’s a full-season pace even a little better than the huge actual numbers he produced.
  • Jefferson beat Thielen in targets in 8 of their 13 shared games, including each of the team’s final 5 contests. Jefferson drew 27% of the team’s pass attempts over that stretch. Only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins reached that share over the full season.
  • Minnesota made only minimal changes to the WR depth chart this offseason.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jefferson’s rookie-year success has been well-publicized. The only real question is whether he can repeat it.

The one aspect we can’t know is his focus/work ethic: Will he let himself slip at all off last season’s high? We’ll see and will certainly watch for any such reports over the summer. But it would be foolish to bet against his ability at this point.

Target volume could be an issue, but Jefferson ranked a solid 16th among WRs in targets last year. And his pace over 14 starts would have pushed him up to 9th in that category. It’s a low-volume pass offense, but Minnesota also has its WR targets concentrated in 2 players. Jefferson ranked 7th among all wideouts in target share in 2020, with Adam Thielen 20th.

Jefferson is in a good spot to keep his catch rate well above average, and there’s room for growth over his TD production last year. All told, he belongs in the Round 2 range of at least PPR and half-PPR drafts.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Adam Thielen (foot) aren't listed on the final injury report. Both guys got some time off in practice earlier this week but should be ready to play their usual roles vs. the Panthers on Sunday.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Adam Thielen (foot) missed their 2nd straight practices on Thursday. We haven't heard any concern about their availability for this weekend's game vs. the Panthers, but make sure to check back tomorrow afternoon for another update.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson returned to practice on Monday, just 10 days after spraining the AC joint in his shoulder. It sounds like he was limited, but just the fact that he was out there is confirmation that he'll be good to go come Week 1.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is considered "day-to-day" after hurting his left shoulder in Friday's practice, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "Tests came out as good as possible," Rapoport adds. "All positive news." It sounds like we should fully expect Jefferson to be ready to go come Week 1.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder in Friday's practice. ESPN’s Adam Schefter cites a source saying the injury is “nothing serious.” Further testing is scheduled for this weekend, though. We'll pass along an update when it's available. For now, we're not moving Jefferson in the WR rankings.

View all Justin Jefferson Shark Bites »

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