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Jefferson burned fantasy drafters last year, finishing WR20 in PPR despite playing all 17 games. But the underlying usage still screams elite. Add in a QB upgrade with Kyler Murray, and Jefferson’s back as an attractive pick in mid-to-late Round 1.
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Despite playing all 17 games, Jefferson finished as one of fantasy’s biggest draft busts. He supplied 84 catches, 1,048 yards, and only 2 TDs. The last two marks set career lows.
He finished WR20 in total PPR points and 25th in half-PPR; 28th in PPR points per game and 34th in half-PPR points per game.
Jefferson’s best weekly PPR finish came at WR8, with only two other weeks inside the top 12. He added four more top-24 finishes but also landed outside the top 36 seven times.
No WR underachieved more than Jefferson vs. expected fantasy points, which is based on usage.
His WR28 finish in PPR PPG (11.9) came in well under his expected finish of WR9 (15.3). A chunk of that includes his 8.8 expected TDs vs. only 2 actual scores.
But there was nothing wrong with Jefferson’s role. He ranked second among WRs in routes, sixth in target share, and 10th in red-zone target share. His QB play just stunk.
Here’s where Jefferson really underperformed.
Among 43 WRs with 80+ targets, he finished:
One stat helps explain the sudden struggles. Jefferson’s catchable target rate fell to 71.7% after sitting at 78.0% in both 2023 and 2024. The 2025 figure ranked 36th in the same sample of 43 WRs.
The Vikings weren’t a ripe environment for production, finishing 30th in total plays and 24th in situation-neutral pace. They added finishes of 30th in time of possession, 30th in plays, and 32nd in third-down conversion rate. That helped limit this unit to 20.2 points per game, seventh-fewest in the league.
QB play really bottomed out. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards and 1.05 TDs per game.
Durability stayed on Jefferson’s side. He played every game for the second straight year. His only missed time as a pro has been a seven-game 2023 absence for a hamstring injury.
Jefferson enters Year 7 still locked into the No. 1 role.
Jordan Addison returns as the No. 2 target after QB play limited him to career-low per-game numbers: 3.0 catches, 43.5 yards, and 0.21 TDs.
The Vikings added Jauan Jennings to replace free-agent departure Jalen Nailor, who vacates 53 targets from last year’s number. Jennings should absorb most of that work.
T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season after a second straight down year (51-438-3 in 15 games). He won’t impede Jefferson’s shot at finishing among the league leaders in target share. Our current projections have him at 28.7%, which would have ranked fourth among all pass catchers last season.
The Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray, who's the favorite to start over J.J. McCarthy.
Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. He ranked 13th in the same sample in catchable throw rate -- 76.4% -- just ahead of Matthew Stafford.
Murray projects as a sizable upgrade on McCarthy and gives Jefferson a shot at returning top-5 fantasy WR numbers.
There’s no concern here. The Vikings return HC Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips, a tandem that helped Jefferson finish WR1, WR5, and WR4 in PPR points per game from 2022-2024.
One reason why: A tilt toward the pass. This duo has finished fifth, second, 20th, and 13th in pass rate. Even with the awful QB setup in 2025, the Vikings slid to a mid-pack 19th in situation- neutral pass rate.
Jefferson’s multi-year track record shows a high-end WR1 ceiling, so there’s no projection needed. At 27, he’s only one year past the peak production age in our historical aging curves.
It begins and ends with the health of his QB, who has missed 6+ games in three of the past four seasons. Murray enters the summer healthy, though, and we’re not knocking Jefferson’s numbers down for any QB risk.
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It's Clear Who Justin Jefferson Wants His QB To Be
It's Clear Who Justin Jefferson Wants His QB To Be
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson spoke glowingly of QB Kyler Murray on Monday. “He understands the game. He understands the defenses," Jefferson said on KFAN. "He understands how to put touch on the ball, just enough to where it gets to where it’s gotta go, without making it difficult for us. He understands the game a lot more… he kinda throws the ball before you even get out that break… he’s a smart guy, and he’s a competitor.”
Vikings Activate Jordan Addison's Fifth-Year Option
Vikings Activate Jordan Addison's Fifth-Year Option
The Vikings picked up the fifth-year option on WR Jordan Addison. That puts him under contract through the 2027 season for $18 million guaranteed.
Kevin O’Connell Hints At Vikings New Offense Look With Kyler Murray
Kevin O’Connell Hints At Vikings New Offense Look With Kyler Murray
Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was asked on KFAN1003 about the new offense with Kyler Murray at the helm. O’Connell called it the “Justin Jefferson program” and might have revealed some expectations for new QB Kyler Murray. O’Connell also mentioned that defenses will want to have a spy for Murray (and then quickly added, or “any of our other QBs”). But, the comment shows a potential plan for the offense: help Justin Jefferson get open by forcing defenses to respect Murray’s rushing.
Justin Jefferson Hits 1,000 Yards After Disappointing Fantasy Season
Justin Jefferson Hits 1,000 Yards After Disappointing Fantasy Season
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson went 8-101-0 on 11 targets in Week 18, catching passes from QBs J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer. That puts Jefferson at 85-1048-2 for the entire season. He had 141 targets on the season, only catching 60.3% of his targets on the year. It does mark his sixth straight season over 1,000 yards receiving. Despite the success, Jefferson will enter next season with uncertainty around the Vikings’ passing game.
J.J. McCarthy Out For Week 17
J.J. McCarthy Out For Week 17
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has a hairline fracture in his right hand and is out for Thursday's game vs. the Lions, HC Kevin O'Connell said Tuesday. We imagine that McCarthy will also miss the season finale, but we'll keep you updated on his status. McCarthy's absence on Christmas puts QB Max Brosmer back under center. He threw for 126 yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs in a Week 13 loss in Seattle. The spot on Thursday -- at home for Detroit's 26th-ranked QB defense -- is much better. But Brosmer isn't even a recommended QB2 start and adds a ton of risk to Minnesota's skill-position players.
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