What You Need to Know:

• You probably already know it, but Jefferson had a historic rookie season. Some highlights:
  • 5th most PPR points per game ever among rookie WRs
  • 22nd in that category among all RBs, WRs and TEs, combined
  • 7th most receptions for a rookie (on 10th most targets)
  • Most receiving yards ever
  • Tied for just 20th in TD catches
• That last 1 is a highlight because it leaves room for upside. Jefferson’s 8% TD rate ranked 84th among all targeted WRs. The average for the entire position: 7%.
• Jefferson saw 23.1% of his targets in the red zone, compared with 28.3% for teammate Adam Thielen, according to Pro Football Focus. Jefferson trailed Thielen just 30-28 in total red-zone looks, though, and caught only 4 fewer passes in that range. Thielen scored 14 times on plays from the 20-yard line and in, however. Jefferson got 5 TDs there.
• The rookie garnered just 8 end-zone targets vs. Thielen’s 20, scoring twice on such passes compared with 13 for Thielen. Even if Thielen remains the favored target in that range, Jefferson should be in for some positive regression after snagging just 25% of his end-zone targets.
• The 2 finished similarly in average depth of target (Thielen 12.54, Jefferson 12.01) and catch rate (Jefferson 72.7%, Thielen 69.8%). Next Gen Stats also had them near-identical in separation: Thielen at 2.7 yards on average, Jefferson at 2.6.
• Jefferson wasn’t really an offensive factor in the season’s 1st 2 games. Olabisi Johnson started ahead of the rookie, and Jefferson drew just 3 targets in each of those contests. He totaled 5 receptions for 70 yards.
• Over the final 14 weeks, Jefferson averaged 8.5 targets, 5.9 receptions, 95 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. That’s a full-season pace even a little better than the huge actual numbers he produced.
• Jefferson beat Thielen in targets in 8 of their 13 shared games, including each of the team’s final 5 contests. Jefferson drew 27% of the team’s pass attempts over that stretch. Only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins reached that share over the full season.
• Minnesota made only minimal changes to the WR depth chart this offseason.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jefferson’s rookie-year success has been well-publicized. The only real question is whether he can repeat it.

The one aspect we can’t know is his focus/work ethic: Will he let himself slip at all off last season’s high? We’ll see and will certainly watch for any such reports over the summer. But it would be foolish to bet against his ability at this point.

Target volume could be an issue, but Jefferson ranked a solid 16th among WRs in targets last year. And his pace over 14 starts would have pushed him up to 9th in that category. It’s a low-volume pass offense, but Minnesota also has its WR targets concentrated in 2 players. Jefferson ranked 7th among all wideouts in target share in 2020, with Adam Thielen 20th.

Jefferson is in a good spot to keep his catch rate well above average, and there’s room for growth over his TD production last year. All told, he belongs in the Round 2 range of at least PPR and half-PPR drafts.