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Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJustin Jefferson's Basic Stats

Justin Jefferson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 6
Experience: 4
Age: 25.1
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.43
Speed Score: 104.90

Burst Score (Rank): 126.80 (78%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.06 (62%)

Justin Jefferson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.8 97.3 0.52 12.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
7.3 103.6 0.6 14.1

Justin Jefferson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#3 Wide Receiver

296.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 102 1452.5 7.8 7.5 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJustin Jefferson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

The QB question and recency bias have pushed Jefferson from the clear No. 1 WR in 2023 ADP to fourth or fifth at the position this year. Given that he scored as the WR2 and WR1 in PPR points per game across healthy outings the past two years, the upside is obvious. You should chase that more than you should worry about the QB.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Every QB knows to get the ball to Jefferson. The WR set a career high for target share across his eight healthy games, despite Minnesota starting four different QBs and Jefferson losing seven midseason games and parts of two others to a hamstring injury.
  • Jefferson also set career highs with 2.91 yards per route and a 91.2 Pro Football Focus receiving grade, despite getting just four of those eight healthy games with Kirk Cousins.
  • Even his PPR scoring average slipped just 1.2 points per game vs. 2022 – including the game Jefferson left early and the limited action he saw in his first game back.
    • Throw out those two, and his 24.1 PPR points per game would have topped his 2022 rate by 2.6 points. It also would have beaten CeeDee Lamb for tops at the position.
  • Minnesota erased the only potential question from Jefferson’s profile by giving him a large contract extension in the spring.

What to Expect in 2024

  • No one needs to make a case for Jefferson the player. The only question here is the QB play.
  • It’ll be some combo of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy this season, neither of whom has played a regular-season down for Minnesota.
  • That’s probably not a confidence-inspiring pair, especially with Darnold looking like the better early bet to open the season behind center. But the Vikings clearly view Darnold as an upgrade over Dobbs-Mullens-Hall. If they didn’t, they would have stuck with last year’s group.
  • Minnesota also didn’t make any meaningful additions at WR or TE, despite T.J. Hockenson looking uncertain to start the year after a double-ligament knee injury in Week 16 of last season.
    • Robert Tonyan arrived on a minimum contract as the “biggest” TE addition.
    • Trent Sherfield was the biggest name added at WR.
  • The Vikings did sign RB Aaron Jones almost immediately after the Packers released him. It’s hard to see that impacting Jefferson’s usage, though.
    • At his best, Jones hasn’t been a high-volume runner. So his arrival shouldn’t signal a significant shift in run-pass split.
    • At worst, he’s better than Alexander Mattison. So Jones’ addition should help the offense.
  • Over HC Kevin O’Connell’s two seasons, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
    • Even after Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included four missed games and a limited outing for Jefferson.

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Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

9:30am EDT 6/3/24

Justin Jefferson contract extension arrives

The Vikings are signing WR Justin Jefferson to a four-year extension, according to NFL Network. The $140 million deal includes $110 million in guarantees and will make him the highest-paid non-QB in the league.

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Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson admitted recently that he has no timetable for return from last year's multi-ligament knee injury. Hockenson tore his right MCL and ACL on December 24. The MCL injury delayed the ACL surgery until January 29, pushing back Hockenson's timeline. He'll be just a little over seven months removed from surgery come Week 1.

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Vikings WR Justin Jefferson did not report for the start of the team's offseason program on Monday. He's entering the final year of his rookie deal and is (rightfully) looking for a big contract extension. “I’ve had a lot of great dialogue with Justin throughout even the early part of this offseason and leading up,” HC Kevin O’Connell said. “My hope is we can get him around the team. Obviously such a special player, but it goes beyond that this time of year because of just the energy and flat-out way he goes to work.” We'll see where these contract negotiations go and how long Jefferson stays away from the team. We'll also see if the Vikings add a QB early in the draft later this month. Despite those issues, Jefferson still sits fourth among WRs in our current 2024 fantasy football rankings.

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The Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick of this year's draft -- plus pick No. 232 -- from the Texans in exchange for picks 42, 188, and a 2025 second-rounder. Minnesota now holds the 11th and 23rd overall picks in the draft. The obvious conclusion here is that the Vikings are stockpiling ammo to make a move up for a QB. They'd likely need to trade into the top three to land Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Drake Maye. Or they could make a smaller move up for J.J. McCarthy. Any of those guys would be good news for the short and long-term fantasy outlooks of WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison, and TE T.J. Hockenson. QB Sam Darnold currently tops Minnesota's depth chart.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Dynasty MVP 164.2
Position Rank #9 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
517
838
1,524
Dynasty Write-up
Jefferson has kicked off his career with four straight seasons of 1,000+ yards. After signing a mega extension, he's now under contract through the 2028 season. The Vikings addressed their need for a franchise QB by selecting J.J. McCarthy 10th overall.
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