Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Jefferson built off his historic rookie season to post 108-1,616-10 in year 2. He ranked as the WR4 in PPR.
• He saw an elite 28.8% target share. Only 3 WRs topped his 167 targets.
• Jefferson appeared in all 17 games after playing all 16 as a rookie.
• He hit 4+ catches in all but 2 games. He finished as a top-15 WR 9 times; the WR1 twice.
• With Adam Thielen sidelined for 4 games, Jefferson posted 20.5, 14.7, 11.8 and 22.1 PPR points. The game with 11.8 (at Green Bay) was with Sean Mannion under center.
• Compared to other top-tier talents, Jefferson fared well. Among 37 WRs with 100+ targets, he sat 3rd in PFF receiving grade, 5th in yards per route run and 7th in yards per catch.
• Jefferson spoke up about the 2021 offense and the direction it's going under new HC Kevin O’Connell (formerly with the Rams): “We had an old-style offense last year,” Jefferson said. “It’s 2022. You get into a new age and move to a new generation. Adding new things to the offense allows us to be more comfortable with the offense and work in different areas of the fields.”
• According to ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, the new-look offense will have “a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and movement, reliance on three-receiver sets, a zone run game and play-action concepts.” Basically — a lot of what the Rams do under Sean McVay.
• Jefferson should step into a Cooper Kupp-like role, affording a similar ceiling.
• Kirk Cousins returns for his 3rd season alongside Jefferson. That continuity is key — and it wasn’t always a given, as Cousins’ name routinely came up in offseason trade rumors.
• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson said he's "so excited" about new HC Kevin O'Connell's offense. "Our offensive style, it's not a run-first offense anymore," Jefferson said.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Only 23, it’s wild to think that we might not have seen Jefferson’s best season just yet.

What we have seen is a nice jump in production from year 1 to year 2. He’s poised to dominate targets again with a QB he’s already established with. And now, he’ll play under what’s almost certainly an upgraded coaching staff.

The LSU product shouldn’t last beyond the middle of Round 1 in 12-team PPR setups.