Bottom Line

Walker’s rookie season matched his college profile: Excellent rushing, underwhelming receiving.

He scored as a top-18 RB in points per game across fantasy formats – and ranked top 8 in 11 healthy games without Rashaad Penny.

But Walker faces new competition from RB Zach Charbonnet. The second-round rookie looks like the early favorite to handle the majority of passing-down work. We’ll see how many carries he siphons.

Walker seemingly has a wide range of outcomes in 2023. He’s worth considering at RB2-level prices. But any more expensive than that and he becomes a risky pick.

What We Learned Last Year

• Walker posted a 228-1,050-9 rushing line and 27-165-0 receiving line in 15 games as a rookie.
• He finished 18th among RBs in PPR points per game and 14th in non-PPR.
• Walker needed hernia surgery in mid-August and missed Week 1. He spent the next four games in a timeshare with Rashaad Penny, totaling 23 carries and 7 targets.
• Penny went down with a season-ending injury in Week 5, paving the way for Walker to take over.
• In 11 healthy games the rest of the way – omitting Week 13 when he left early and including the Wild Card loss – Walker averaged:
  • 19.7 carries
  • 84.6 rushing yards
  • 0.82 rushing TDs
  • 2.5 targets
  • 2.0 catches
  • 14.0 receiving yards
  • 0 receiving TDs
• His scoring average in those 11 games would have ranked seventh among RBs in PPR points per game and sixth in non-PPR points per game.
• Among 48 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Walker ranked:
  • 11th in Pro Football Focus rushing grades
  • 13th in elusive rating
  • 16th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected
• But Walker ranked second-worst in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, which measures run-to-run consistency. That means Walker had a boom-or-bust rushing profile last year, breaking off plenty of big runs but also having a lot of runs go nowhere.
• Walker drew 7.5% of Seahawks targets in his 11 healthy games as lead back.
• Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets last year, Walker ranked:
  • 35th in yards per target
  • 42nd in yards per route run
  • 33rd in PFF receiving grade

What to Expect in 2023

• The Seahawks let RB Rashaad Penny walk in free agency.
• But Walker faces new competition in rookie RB Zach Charbonnet.
  • Seattle grabbed Charbonnet with the 52nd overall pick of this spring’s draft. That’s 11 picks later than Walker was selected last year.
  • Charbonnet spent his first two college seasons at Michigan before transferring to UCLA and operating as the Bruins’ lead back the last two years.
  • Across those two seasons, he totaled 2,496 yards and 27 TDs on 6.3 yards per carry.
  • Charbonnet also racked up 61 receptions for 518 yards.
  • Here’s how Charbonnet and Walker stacked up in their final college seasons in key rushing and receiving metrics:

• Shortly after the draft, HC Pete Carroll called Charbonnet a “complement” to Walker and highlighted the rookie’s ability in the passing game. Charbonnet looks like the early favorite for passing-down snaps this season.
• Walker returns to the same offense this year piloted by OC Shane Waldron and QB Geno Smith.
• Last year’s Seahawks offensive line ranked:
  • 18th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades
  • 30th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards
  • 24th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate
• Seattle didn’t make any significant additions to the O-line this offseason. But OTs Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas both turned in solid rookie seasons last year and are candidates to take steps forward in 2023.