Kenneth Walker III - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Walker struggled through injuries last year and lost some playing time to RB Zach Charbonnet. He finished 22nd among RBs in PPR points per game.

Walker and Charbonnet are both back in Seattle for 2024, but they’ll be in a brand new offense under first-time OC Ryan Grubb. That adds some uncertainty to the workload split.

Consider Walker a risk/reward RB2 in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Walker ranked 22nd among RBs in PPR points per game last season; 20th in non-PPR.
• He slightly overachieved vs. his opportunity. Walker ranked 27th at his position in expected PPR points per game; 24th in expected non-PPR points per game.
• He dealt with a bunch of injuries.
  • He missed the first couple of weeks of training camp with a groin issue.
  • He was knocked out early in Week 11 by an oblique injury and missed the next two games.
  • He also appeared on the injury report with calf, chest, and shoulder injuries.
• In his 14 healthy games, Walker:
  • Played 57.5% of Seattle’s offensive snaps
  • Ran a route on 39.2% of the pass plays
  • Handled 67.6% of the team’s carries
  • Drew a 7.7% target share
• Walker lost more playing time to RB Zach Charbonnet late in the season, although his share of the workload actually increased a bit.
  • In Weeks 1-6:
    • 67% snap rate
    • 47% route rate
    • 66.9% carry share
    • 7.6% target share
  • In Weeks 14-18:
    • 53% snap rate
    • 36% route rate
    • 67.3% carry share
    • 8.7% target share
• Walker beat Charbonnet in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and Elusive Rating. But Charbonnet beat Walker in yards after contact per attempt and NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Walker ranked:
  • 22nd in yards after contact per attempt
  • 30th in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 8th in PFF rushing grade
  • 7th in Elusive Rating
• His yards per carry dipped from 4.6 as a 2022 rookie to 4.1 last year.
  • That was largely because Walker didn’t break off as many long runs. He went from 10 carries of 20+ yards and three of 40+ in 2022 to seven carries of 20+ and just one 40-yarder last year.
  • His success rate actually climbed from 39.9% in 2022 to 46.6% in 2023 – although last year’s mark still ranked just 31st among 49 qualifiers.
• Walker beat Charbonnet in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade. He ranked 11th in yards per route and 10th in receiving grade among 43 qualifying RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

• Last year’s work split between Walker and Charbonnet might not mean much heading into 2024. The Seahawks have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
  • The Huskies ranked 69th and then 106th in rushing yards per game.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb deployed a committee backfield at Washington in 2022, with Wayne Taulapapa averaging 10.8 carries per game and Cameron Davis averaging 9.7. Grubb leaned on Dillon Johnson as a feature back this past year, feeding him 60% of the team’s carries.
• The 2023 Seahawks ranked:
  • 15th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade
  • 17th in ESPN’s run-block win rate
  • 25th in adjusted line yards
• Seattle might have as many as four new starters on the offensive line this season: OT George Fant, Gs Laken Tomlinson and McClendon Curtis, and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi. 2022 first-round LT Charles Cross returns for his third season.
• Our Injury Predictor gives Walker a 41.8% chance of injury and 1.9 projected games missed this season.