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Keon Coleman - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKeon Coleman's Basic Stats

Keon Coleman
ADP: 9.10
Bye: 12
Experience: 0
Age: 21.1
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 213
40 Time: 4.61
Burst Score (Rank): 128.10 (82%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.97 (45%)

Keon Coleman's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.7 49 0.33 6.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Keon Coleman's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#47 Wide Receiver

169.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
9.10 59.2 784 5.28 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKeon Coleman's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Coleman, only 21, isn’t a polished product.

He might be 1-2 years away from a true breakout.

For 2024, though, there’s clearly a ton of opportunity – if he proves ready. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave a significant target share. Currently, there’s no obvious go-to option for this offense.

So consider Coleman a WR4 stash to begin the season – one with some enticing TD upside.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Coleman’s college career started at Michigan State, where he spent two seasons.
    • He posted a breakout 2022 (58-798-7) alongside current Packers WR Jayden Reed.
    • Coleman posted some solid market shares: 22.5% of the receptions, 27.7% of the receiving yards, and 30.4% of the receiving TDs.
  • He transferred to Florida State in early 2023.
    • Coleman’s production was unspectacular, though. While he popped as a TD scorer (11), he lacked week-to-week consistency.
    • Most notably, his market share of the receiving yards dipped to 21.9%.
    • Rookie Round 6 WR Johnny Wilson topped Coleman in yards per game, targets per route, yards per route, and yards per target.
    • Consider that Wilson was a senior – Coleman only 20 and in his first year with the program.
  • When right, Coleman effectively pairs a hulked-up frame (6’3, 213) with effortless ball skills.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Bills lost 241 targets from the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
  • GM Brandon Beane said he allowed Allen to share his input on the rookie WR class.
    • Coleman was reportedly Allen's desired pick at 33rd overall.
  • He projects to play most of his snaps outside for a WR corps that includes Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
    • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
    • His contract ($15 million guaranteed) suggests he'll see a sizable role.
    • Shakir flashed down the stretch in 2023. It remains to be seen if Buffalo’s comfortable giving him more outside reps after playing primarily from the slot.
  • Dalton Kincaid enters year two with a chance to push for a target share north of 20%.
  • QB play is the least of Coleman’s concerns. Josh Allen remains squarely in his prime, and his ability to extend plays bodes well for the rookie’s TD upside.

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Keon Coleman, WR BUF

11:59am EDT 6/14/24

Should We Expect a Slow Start From Keon Coleman?

Bills GM Brandon Beane suggested recently that WR Keon Coleman still has a lot of developing to do. Beane noted the big difference between college and NFL playbooks and that Coleman will need to learn to stay engaged on run plays.

View Full Story »

The Bills selected Florida State WR Keon Coleman in Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Coleman’s most impressive college season came at Michigan State back in 2022. He led that squad as a sophomore with 58 catches, 798 yards, and seven TDs – notably ahead of then-senior Jayden Reed. Coleman transferred to Florida State this past year and turned in a mixed season. The good: He led the Seminoles in receiving yards and tied for 11th in the country with 11 receiving TDs. The bad: Coleman trailed teammate Johnny Wilson in most key metrics, including yards per game, targets per route, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. He ranked 149th in PFF receiving grade among 286 qualifying WRs and 175th in yards per route. Coleman’s tape is also a mixed bag. The 6’3, 213-pounder boasts one of the most impressive highlight packages in this year’s WR class, combining a big vertical with impressive body control and strong hands to make some nasty grabs in traffic. But he’s inconsistent in contested situations, converting just 20 of 46 (43%) such targets over the last two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. That includes just 10 of 30 last year. Coleman also struggles creating separation, landing in the 47th percentile among all FBS WRs in separation rate vs. single coverage, per PFF. His combination of size and ball skills gives Coleman the potential to be a downfield and red-zone weapon as a pro. Landing in Buffalo, he joins a squad that lost 241 targets with the departures of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. Couple opportunity with the presence of Josh Allen, and Coleman has the potential to enter fantasy lineups in Year 1.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Keon Coleman, WR BUF
Dynasty MVP 98.5
Position Rank #61 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
290
496
999
Dynasty Write-up
Coleman spent his first two seasons at Michigan State, even garnering a spot on the basketball team. After a 2022 breakout (58-798-7), Coleman transferred to FSU in 2023. Despite disappearing in some games, he remained a scoring machine (22% TD rate) at an imposing 6’4, 215 pounds. Coleman’s not a burner but sports a skill set similar to Tee Higgins'. Consider him an enticing match for playmaking QB Josh Allen.
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