Keon Coleman - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Coleman, only 21, isn’t a polished product.

He might be 1-2 years away from a true breakout.

For 2024, though, there’s clearly a ton of opportunity – if he proves ready. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave a significant target share. Currently, there’s no obvious go-to option for this offense.

So consider Coleman a WR4 stash to begin the season – one with some enticing TD upside.

What We Learned Last Year

• Coleman’s college career started at Michigan State, where he spent two seasons.
  • He posted a breakout 2022 (58-798-7) alongside current Packers WR Jayden Reed.
  • Coleman posted some solid market shares: 22.5% of the receptions, 27.7% of the receiving yards, and 30.4% of the receiving TDs.
• He transferred to Florida State in early 2023.
  • Coleman’s production was unspectacular, though. While he popped as a TD scorer (11), he lacked week-to-week consistency.
  • Most notably, his market share of the receiving yards dipped to 21.9%.
  • Rookie Round 6 WR Johnny Wilson topped Coleman in yards per game, targets per route, yards per route, and yards per target.
  • Consider that Wilson was a senior – Coleman only 20 and in his first year with the program.
• When right, Coleman effectively pairs a hulked-up frame (6’3, 213) with effortless ball skills.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Bills lost 241 targets from the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
• GM Brandon Beane said he allowed Allen to share his input on the rookie WR class.
  • Coleman was reportedly Allen's desired pick at 33rd overall.
• He projects to play most of his snaps outside for a WR corps that includes Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
  • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
  • His contract ($15 million guaranteed) suggests he'll see a sizable role.
  • Shakir flashed down the stretch in 2023. It remains to be seen if Buffalo’s comfortable giving him more outside reps after playing primarily from the slot.
• Dalton Kincaid enters year two with a chance to push for a target share north of 20%.
• QB play is the least of Coleman’s concerns. Josh Allen remains squarely in his prime, and his ability to extend plays bodes well for the rookie’s TD upside.