Bottom Line
Coleman, only 21, isn’t a polished product.
He might be 1-2 years away from a true breakout.
For 2024, though, there’s clearly a ton of opportunity – if he proves ready. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave a significant target share. Currently, there’s no obvious go-to option for this offense.
So consider Coleman a WR4 stash to begin the season – one with some enticing TD upside.
What We Learned Last Year
- Coleman’s college career started at Michigan State, where he spent two seasons.
- He posted a breakout 2022 (58-798-7) alongside current Packers WR Jayden Reed.
- Coleman posted some solid market shares: 22.5% of the receptions, 27.7% of the receiving yards, and 30.4% of the receiving TDs.
- He transferred to Florida State in early 2023.
- Coleman’s production was unspectacular, though. While he popped as a TD scorer (11), he lacked week-to-week consistency.
- Most notably, his market share of the receiving yards dipped to 21.9%.
- Rookie Round 6 WR Johnny Wilson topped Coleman in yards per game, targets per route, yards per route, and yards per target.
- Consider that Wilson was a senior – Coleman only 20 and in his first year with the program.
- When right, Coleman effectively pairs a hulked-up frame (6’3, 213) with effortless ball skills.
What to Expect in 2024
- The Bills lost 241 targets from the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
- GM Brandon Beane said he allowed Allen to share his input on the rookie WR class.
- Coleman was reportedly Allen's desired pick at 33rd overall.
- He projects to play most of his snaps outside for a WR corps that includes Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir.
- Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
- His contract ($15 million guaranteed) suggests he'll see a sizable role.
- Shakir flashed down the stretch in 2023. It remains to be seen if Buffalo’s comfortable giving him more outside reps after playing primarily from the slot.
- Dalton Kincaid enters year two with a chance to push for a target share north of 20%.
- QB play is the least of Coleman’s concerns. Josh Allen remains squarely in his prime, and his ability to extend plays bodes well for the rookie’s TD upside.