Bottom Line

Moore gets a QB upgrade with his move from Carolina to Chicago. But the Bears are coming off a season as the league’s most run-heavy offense. They’ll either have to move well away from that or let Moore dominate targets if he’s to approach his ceiling.

Moore looks fine at WR3 level in drafts. We’ll see what kind of upside Chicago can provide beyond that.

What We Learned Last Year

• Despite playing with three different starting QBs on the Panthers last year, Moore finished as the WR24 in PPR.
• It was Moore’s third top-24 finish among his five seasons, with two others among the top 36.
• He had five weekly finishes last year within the top 12, one in the top 24, and only two others in WR3 range – among 17 games.
• Moore led the Panthers in targets per game (6.9), target share (27.5%), air yards share (48%), Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.72), and receiving yards (888).
  • No other Panthers’ pass catcher came close to Moore in any of these categories. Excluding WR Chosen Anderson (five games played, traded to the Cardinals ahead of Week 7), the closest receiver (Terrace Marshall Jr.) recorded a mere 15.7% target share, 24.2% air yards share, and 480 receiving yards.
• Though Moore almost doubled all his teammates in nearly every opportunity metric, he ranked 25th among 30 WRs who saw 100+ targets last year in NFL passer rating when targeted (86.5).
• Poor QB play has been a consistent theme throughout Moore’s career. In his five seasons as a professional, Moore’s career passer rating when targeted is 83.7.
• Among that group of 30 receivers with 100+ targets in 2022, Moore ranked 22nd in PFF receiving grade, 24th in yards per route run (1.74), and 28th in yards after catch (191).

What to Expect in 2023

• Moore will have an opportunity to start over in a new situation as the lead pass-catcher with QB Justin Fields.
• It’s fair to say that he’s never had quality QB play in his career with eight different starters since 2018:
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Sam Darnold
  • P.J. Walker
  • Cam Newton
  • Teddy Bridgewater
  • Kyle Allen
  • Will Grier
  • Taylor Heinicke
• None of those players screams high-end passer. Fields hasn’t been known for his throwing acumen to date either, though:
  • He finished dead-last in PFF passing grade, passing yards (2,242), and attempts (318) among 25 QBs who recorded 400+ dropbacks in 2022.
  • Moreover, the Bears’ offense skewed super run-heavy last year, ranking first in team rushing yards per game, and 31st in pass rate. They posted the NFL’s lowest pass rate over expectation since 2016 (-14.1%).
• Between acquiring Moore this offseason and trading a 2023 second-round draft pick to the Steelers for WR Chase Claypool, it’s evident the Bears want to throw more in 2023. How much more? We probably won’t know that answer until the season.