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Michael Thomas - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Michael Thomas
NO

WR NO

#47 Wide Receiver

87 Projected Points

ADP: 3.11
Bye: 6
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.52

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#47 Wide Receiver

87 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.11 56 634 4 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

65.3

DS Projection

87

Consensus

38 other sites
196.7

High Ceiling

139.2

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-After finishing as the clear WR1 in 2019, 2020 was a forgettable year for Thomas. He tallied 55-40-438-0 in only 7 appearances.

-He wasn’t healthy at all during the season. It started with a Week 1 high ankle sprain. He missed the next 4 games before sitting out Week 5 for disciplinary reasons. (Thomas fought with a teammate at practice.)

-Then came a hamstring tweak at practice. He sat out the next 2 games.

-Thomas, 27, stayed on the field until Week 14, when another ankle injury shut him down for the regular season. He returned to record 5-73-1 in 2 postseason games (all in the Wild Card Round vs. Chicago).

-Thomas underwent early offseason ankle surgery. HC Sean Payton said the team is still monitoring the ankle, while Thomas (as of June) is still getting treatment.

-Taysom Hill started 4 games in place of an injured Drew Brees. In those, Thomas saw a 32.4% target share. His per game averages: 9.25 targets, 7.5 catches, 85.7 yards, 0 TD.

-From catch rate to yards after catch to yards per route run, Thomas’ numbers slumped across the small sample. Clearly, injuries played a huge role.

-The Saints will hold a QB competition between Jameis Winston and Hill in training camp. While Hill started each game in place of Drew Brees last year, our money is on Winston as the Week 1 starter. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has called Winston the favorite.

-Thomas, who’s dominated on slant routes with Brees, will almost certainly see an accuracy downgrade. Per Larry Holder of The Athletic: Winston’s catchable ball percentage on slants dropped from 80% in ’18 to 61.1% in ’19.

-Winston, who underwent lasik eye surgery last offseason, at least has a full year in HC Sean Payton’s system.

-No matter who’s under center, Thomas projects for high volume. Our numbers have him at 159 targets — 5th-most league-wide.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Only 27, Thomas is coming off a tough-luck 2020. A declining Drew Brees, a slew of injuries and a suspension ruined any hope of repeating a sterling 2019.

2021 brings some questions under center. But there’s no doubt Thomas will be fed in year 6 with Sean Payton. If Thomas’ Round 3 ADP holds, he’ll be a strong target thorough the summer.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that Saints WR Michael Thomas (ankle) will debut in Week 7 this season "if everything goes perfect." Thomas elected not to undergo surgery on that ankle immediately after the season, evidently hoping it'd heal with rest and rehab. But he ended up having "major surgery" in early June, per Rapoport, and will need at least 4 months to recover. Thomas is expected to open the season on the PUP list, with the hope that he'll be ready to go following the Saints' Week 6 bye. And that sounds like the best-case scenario. He'll also miss a ton of valuable practice reps with QBs Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Thomas has gone from a value pick in Round 3 of fantasy drafts to a guy that you're probably better off just passing on unless you can land him super late.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints WR Michael Thomas is expected to miss the beginning of the regular season after June ankle surgery, according to NFL Network's ian Rapoport. Thomas reportedly needed ligaments repaired in the ankle, stemming from last September's injury. "It simply never recovered," Rapoport reports. Doctors reportedly recommend a 4-month recovery. From a June surgery date, that would stretch into October -- potentially costing Thomas half the season. We'll keep an eye out for more details. For now, at least, the Saints' top wideout becomes no more than a late-round fantasy pick. Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and other Saints pass-catchers obviously stand to see their opportunities increase. We'll also see whether New Orleans dips into the trade market for WR help. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports that the team has been "nosing around" available free agents at the position.

Update: The Athletic reports that Thomas "may miss up to five games."

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints HC Sean Payton admitted that the team is still monitoring the ankle injury that cost WR Michael Thomas 9 games last year. “We still monitor it, pay attention to it, scan it, and all those things," Payton said. "He’s getting treatment and doing the things necessary. So, so far, so good.” It's slightly concerning that the issue isn't completely behind Thomas. But he's participating in minicamp, so the Saints obviously aren't too worried. Thomas remains a nice value pick in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints WR Michael Thomas will "likely" have surgery this offseason to repair a torn deltoid and other injured ligaments in his ankle, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Thomas hurt that ankle in Week 1, didn't return until Week 9 and played the rest of the way with pain medication, per Schefter. It's safe to say that Thomas was never at full strength after the opener. Assuming better health, he'll be a prime 2021 bounce-back candidate.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

The Saints have added WR Michael Thomas to the active roster, according to Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football. That comes as no surprise after a practice week filled with positive reports. Thomas looks ready for Sunday's game against the Bears.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

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