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Michael Thomas - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Basic Stats

Michael Thomas
ADP: 5.10
Bye: 14
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 29.3
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.57
Speed Score: 99.90
SPARQx (Rank): 114.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.50 (57%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.93 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (80%)

Michael Thomas's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#48 Wide Receiver

113.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
5.10 71.1 838.6 5.2 2.1 0.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Thomas missed all of last season with an ankle injury that originally occurred all the way back in Week 1 of 2020.
  • That season, he missed the next 6 games after getting hurt in the win over Tampa Bay, part of that due to a hamstring injury sustained in practice. Thomas then returned for 6 more, playing less than 70% of the snaps in 3 of them (well below his normal), missed 3 more and finally returned for limited performance in 2 playoff contests.
  • Thomas didn’t have surgery until June 2021, getting 2 ligaments repaired in his left ankle. He announced before last season that a “small setback” would keep him out for the year.
  • The ankle still wasn’t ready for OTAs or minicamp this spring. New HC Dennis Allen said he expects Thomas to be ready for training camp.
  • When Thomas did play in 2020, his performance was noticeably down, including career lows in yards per route run and catch rate.
  • He finished 2019 as Pro Football Focus’ top-graded WR. Thomas also ranked 2nd in 2018, 1st in 2017 and 6th as a 2016 rookie.
  • His ranks in YPRR among WRs with 30+ targets:
    • T-15th in 2016
    • 4th in 2017
    • 3rd in 2018
    • 1st in 2019
    • 27th (out of 117) in 2020
  • Thomas has caught 77.6% of his targets since entering the league, tops among wideouts. Among 110 WRs who have seen at least 200 targets over that span, just 7 others have cracked 70%. Thomas has exceeded 80% in catch rate twice through 5 seasons.
  • He finished each of those 1st 4 seasons among the top 7 PPR wideouts, including a dominant #1 overall season in 2019.
  • This will be Thomas’ 1st season without Drew Brees as New Orleans’ primary QB.
  • He garnered 31.8% of Saints targets in his last full season, for a 2019 Saints team that sported 14 games of Alvin Kamara, 14 games of Jared Cook and a 34-year-old Ted Ginn Jr. as the next 3 in targets.
  • The Saints drafted WR Chris Olave 11th overall this year and signed WR Jarvis Landry in free agency.
  • Jameis Winston – barring a setback in his recovery from an ACL tear – is set to start. He sports a 61.2% career completion rate, compared with Brees’ 68.8% with the Saints. Winston likes throwing downfield more than Brees, though. His career 10.8-yard average depth of target leads Brees by 2.8, according to PFF. Brees checked in short of 8.0 in ADOT each of his final 5 seasons, including marks of just 6.9 and 6.5 in his final 2.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

It is impossible to know what Thomas will look like until we see him back on the field. He’ll present risk even when he gets there, of course, after multiple setbacks in his path back from an ankle injury that initially appeared in Week 1 of 2020. Adding to the risk is a new QB who has been erratic when healthy (especially compared with Drew Brees) and is coming off an ACL tear.

Fortunately, drafters are collectively wary for just those reasons. Thomas is going low in WR3 territory in both FFPC and Underdog drafting as of this writing. That makes him worth considering, though there are too many questions for Thomas to be a “smash” pick even at that level.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Michael Thomas, WR NO

8:02pm EDT 6/12/22

Thomas making "significant progress"

Saints HC Dennis Allen said WR Michael Thomas is making "significant progress" in his recovery from his lingering ankle injury. “I’m good with where Mike Thomas is,” Allen said. “I would much rather him be 100 percent healthy and out here and all those kinds of things, but that’s not where we’re at right now. He is busting his tail to get himself ready to go, and I feel like he’s making significant progress. I think mentally he’s in a great place and, again, we’re just going to let that process play out and get him healthy. And look, we have a long time to go before we play a game. … I’m not looking for a huge jump, I just want to see him keep getting a little better every day.” Thomas won't participate in this week's minicamp, though, and we still have no timetable for his return to the field. He's a risky fantasy pick until we know that the ankle issue is behind him.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints HC Dennis Allen told reporters Thursday that WR Michael Thomas "isn't ready yet," according to John Hendrix of SI.com. Allen added that he expects to have Thomas back in time for training camp. That kind of report on a veteran this time of year is often not a big deal, but Thomas missed all of last season with an ankle injury that dates all the way back to Week 1 of 2020. So we'll consider him high risk at least until he's back on the field -- and probably even after that.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints HC Dennis Allen said Friday that WR Michael Thomas is still working his way back from the ankle issue that cost him the entire 2021 season. "There's still a few hurdles that we've got to climb," Allen said, adding it's his "hope" that Thomas is ready for Week 1. Thomas suffered 2 separate injuries to that left ankle. He had 1 surgery last June and and might have had a 2nd in the wintertime. It's concerning not only that he's still rehabbing, but that Allen wouldn't even commit to him being ready for the start of the season. We'll continue to keep a close eye on the situation.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

WR Michael Thomas is expected back with the Saints for the 2022 season, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Thomas, of course, missed all of 2021 after undergoing a pair of ankle surgeries. Rapoport adds that Thomas had another setback at some point and spent a bunch of time in New York getting weekly treatment. But he's back in New Orleans now and will seemingly be ready for the start of the offseason program. We'll keep an eye on Thomas, along with the rest of the Saints' Sean Payton-less offense.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

The Saints named Dennis Allen their new HC. The 49-year-old has 8 seasons of experience as an NFL DC, including the last 7 with the Saints. He made it just a little over 2 seasons as Raiders HC from 2012 to 2014, winning just 8 of 36 games before getting fired 4 weeks into the 2014 campaign. We'll see if he fares better in his 2nd try. And we'll see who he tabs to run the offense in the post-Sean Payton era.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Thomas, WR NO
Dynasty MVP 87.2
Position Rank #63 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
320
517
517
Dynasty Write-up
We've seen just 8 full games of Thomas without Drew Brees to this point. We saw none of Thomas in 2021 and a very limited version of him the season before. We don't know yet how he'll jive with Jameis Winston. We do know that since Thomas entered the league in 2016, only Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown have more receiving yards per game. Only 10 players have totaled more yards than Thomas over that span, despite 38 WRs playing more games. If he's all the way back from the leg issues, then Thomas should still be in his physical prime heading into his age-29 season.
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