Bottom Line

The biggest question on Thomas will always be health at this point. We’ll watch that aspect throughout the summer.

The veteran’s ADP isn’t likely to climb higher than low-WR4 territory, though, and might even hover in WR5 range. That mitigates some of the risk.

That said, Thomas no longer brings “must have” ceiling. And the Saints don’t look like an offense you need pieces of. So it’s OK if you’d rather just leave him for someone else.

What We Learned Last Year

• We didn’t learn much from Thomas. You might think we learned that it was stupid to bet on him at all because of yet more injury trouble, but a new issue befell the wideout.
• It was an ankle injury that cost Thomas most of 2020 and all of 2021. It’s possible he never quite returned to full pre-injury strength there in 2022. But Thomas dealt with hamstring trouble last summer and then went down with a Week 3 toe injury.
• That required surgery and ultimately cost him the final 14 games.
• Before that, we got numbers that were down vs. Thomas’ previous heights but still quite usable for fantasy lineups.
  • His 5.3 receptions per game were the fewest of Thomas’ career but tied D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for 17th in the league.
  • His 57.0 yards per game also fell 5.6 yards from his previous low (in 2020) but still ranked a decent 33rd.
• Unsurprisingly, Thomas’ Pro Football Focus receiving grades and yards per route have fallen significantly in his past two seasons vs. his first four.
• His 10.7 yards per catch in 2022 also marked a career low. Interestingly, he went for a career-high 10.5-yard average target depth. It’s tough to gauge how real that was, though, given that Thomas played just three games – all with Jameis Winston, who tends to throw deeper than most QBs.

What to Expect in 2023

• We’ll see. Every summer for Thomas at this point starts with some version of the Saints hoping to have him ready for camp. For what it’s worth, he does expect to be fully ready to start this year’s camp.
• Of course, it would be foolish to ignore that we’re now talking about a 30-year-old wideout with three consecutive years ruined by lower-body injuries – plus declining efficiency when he has seen the field.
• Thomas has never not been a high-volume receiver when active, though. And that includes last season’s brief cameo.
• This year presents an upgrade at QB. Derek Carr is coming off the worst season of his career, but the Saints gave him $150 million over four years on the open market. They clearly believe he can rebound.
• HC Dennis Allen said they targeted Carr as soon as it became clear he was done in Vegas. Allen says he values intelligence highly at QB and called Carr “one of the more intelligent people I’ve ever been around in terms of football knowledge.”
• The team also had former Raiders HC Jon Gruden visit in the spring to consult him on what Carr does best. Part of what Carr did under Gruden was not throw as deep downfield as he did last season under Josh McDaniels.
• Shorter routes and better accuracy (vs. last year’s QBs) would be a good match for Thomas.
• It’s tough to bet on Thomas regaining the target-share lead after ceding it to first-round rookie Chris Olave last season, though.