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Michael Thomas - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Basic Stats

Michael Thomas
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 29.7
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.57
Speed Score: 99.90
SPARQx (Rank): 114.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.50 (57%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.93 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (80%)

Michael Thomas's Weekly Outlook

Week 12 Projections

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Rest Of Way Outlook

Michael Thomas's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#33 Wide Receiver

128.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 77.2 943.1 6 2.4 0.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Thomas missed all of last season with an ankle injury that originally occurred all the way back in Week 1 of 2020.
  • That season, he missed the next 6 games after getting hurt in the win over Tampa Bay, part of that due to a hamstring injury sustained in practice. Thomas then returned for 6 more, playing less than 70% of the snaps in 3 of them (well below his normal), missed 3 more and finally returned for limited performance in 2 playoff contests.
  • Thomas didn’t have surgery until June 2021, getting 2 ligaments repaired in his left ankle. He announced before last season that a “small setback” would keep him out for the year.
  • The ankle still wasn’t ready for OTAs or minicamp this spring. New HC Dennis Allen said he expects Thomas to be ready for training camp.
  • When Thomas did play in 2020, his performance was noticeably down, including career lows in yards per route run and catch rate.
  • He finished 2019 as Pro Football Focus’ top-graded WR. Thomas also ranked 2nd in 2018, 1st in 2017 and 6th as a 2016 rookie.
  • His ranks in YPRR among WRs with 30+ targets:
    • T-15th in 2016
    • 4th in 2017
    • 3rd in 2018
    • 1st in 2019
    • 27th (out of 117) in 2020
  • Thomas has caught 77.6% of his targets since entering the league, tops among wideouts. Among 110 WRs who have seen at least 200 targets over that span, just 7 others have cracked 70%. Thomas has exceeded 80% in catch rate twice through 5 seasons.
  • He finished each of those 1st 4 seasons among the top 7 PPR wideouts, including a dominant #1 overall season in 2019.
  • This will be Thomas’ 1st season without Drew Brees as New Orleans’ primary QB.
  • He garnered 31.8% of Saints targets in his last full season, for a 2019 Saints team that sported 14 games of Alvin Kamara, 14 games of Jared Cook and a 34-year-old Ted Ginn Jr. as the next 3 in targets.
  • The Saints drafted WR Chris Olave 11th overall this year and signed WR Jarvis Landry in free agency.
  • Jameis Winston – barring a setback in his recovery from an ACL tear – is set to start. He sports a 61.2% career completion rate, compared with Brees’ 68.8% with the Saints. Winston likes throwing downfield more than Brees, though. His career 10.8-yard average depth of target leads Brees by 2.8, according to PFF. Brees checked in short of 8.0 in ADOT each of his final 5 seasons, including marks of just 6.9 and 6.5 in his final 2.
  • Saints WR Michael Thomas took part in 1-on-1 drills Friday for the 1st time in training camp and impressed. "He looks exactly like he used to look, before the ankle injury," writes Luke Johnson of NOLA.com.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

It is impossible to know what Thomas will look like until we see him back on the field. He’ll present risk even when he gets there, of course, after multiple setbacks in his path back from an ankle injury that initially appeared in Week 1 of 2020. Adding to the risk is a new QB who has been erratic when healthy (especially compared with Drew Brees) and is coming off an ACL tear.

Fortunately, drafters are collectively wary for just those reasons. Thomas is going low in WR3 territory in both FFPC and Underdog drafting as of this writing. That makes him worth considering, though there are too many questions for Thomas to be a “smash” pick even at that level.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Michael Thomas, WR NO

7:17pm EDT 11/3/22

Thomas having toe surgery

Saints WR Michael Thomas will undergo surgery to repair a dislocated 2nd toe, HC Dennis Allen said Thursday. Thomas originally suffered the injury in Week 3. "I don't think there was any complication," Allen said. "I think we followed what the doctors recommended in terms of trying to rehab it and give him an opportunity to play through it. We went in and had another MRI the other day, and it hasn't healed the way that everybody was kind of hoping it would. And so surgery is the next option." Allen didn't give a timetable for Thomas' return but confirmed that he's going on IR and added that he "doesn't anticipate" Thomas playing again this season. He can be dropped from redraft rosters.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints HC Dennis Allen said Thursday that he doesn't expect WR Michael Thomas to return this season from the foot injury that has sidelined him since Week 3. His absence will continue to present opportunity for WRs Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith, with Callaway the more direct replacement for Thomas' role. The veteran will turn 30 in March and still has 2 more years on his contract.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) are out for Sunday's game vs. the Raiders. HC Dennis Allen said Friday that there's no timetable for their returns, but that he does expect both guys to play again this season. WR Chris Olave should continue to dominate targets this weekend, with Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith as New Orleans' #2 and #3 WRs.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Thomas, WR NO
Dynasty MVP 79.2
Position Rank #82 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
375
375
375
Dynasty Write-up
We've seen just 8 full games of Thomas without Drew Brees to this point. We saw none of Thomas in 2021 and a very limited version of him the season before. We don't know yet how he'll jive with Jameis Winston. We do know that since Thomas entered the league in 2016, only Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown have more receiving yards per game. Only 10 players have totaled more yards than Thomas over that span, despite 38 WRs playing more games. If he's all the way back from the leg issues, then Thomas should still be in his physical prime heading into his age-29 season.

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