Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Michael Thomas - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Basic Stats

Michael Thomas
ADP: 9.3
Bye: 11
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 30.5
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.57
Speed Score: 99.90
SPARQx (Rank): 114.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.50 (57%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.93 (83%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (80%)

Michael Thomas's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 49.5 0.4 7.4
Weekly Writeup
Thomas has drawn a solid 24.3% of Saints targets so far. His 9.3-yard average depth of target sits 3.3 yards short of Chris Olave's number, though, and even further behind Rashid Shaheed. Thomas makes for a solid PPR play but could also see the most of Packers top CB Jaire Alexander in coverage, because Thomas lines up outside more than Olave or Shaheed.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 53.7 0.3 7.2

Michael Thomas's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#44 Wide Receiver

106.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
9.3 62.9 772 4.9 1.9 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Thomas's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

The biggest question on Thomas will always be health at this point. We’ll watch that aspect throughout the summer.

The veteran’s ADP isn’t likely to climb higher than low-WR4 territory, though, and might even hover in WR5 range. That mitigates some of the risk.

That said, Thomas no longer brings “must have” ceiling. And the Saints don’t look like an offense you need pieces of. So it’s OK if you’d rather just leave him for someone else.

What We Learned Last Year
  • We didn’t learn much from Thomas. You might think we learned that it was stupid to bet on him at all because of yet more injury trouble, but a new issue befell the wideout.
  • It was an ankle injury that cost Thomas most of 2020 and all of 2021. It’s possible he never quite returned to full pre-injury strength there in 2022. But Thomas dealt with hamstring trouble last summer and then went down with a Week 3 toe injury.
  • That required surgery and ultimately cost him the final 14 games.
  • Before that, we got numbers that were down vs. Thomas’ previous heights but still quite usable for fantasy lineups.
    • His 5.3 receptions per game were the fewest of Thomas’ career but tied D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for 17th in the league.
    • His 57.0 yards per game also fell 5.6 yards from his previous low (in 2020) but still ranked a decent 33rd.
  • Unsurprisingly, Thomas’ Pro Football Focus receiving grades and yards per route have fallen significantly in his past two seasons vs. his first four.
  • His 10.7 yards per catch in 2022 also marked a career low. Interestingly, he went for a career-high 10.5-yard average target depth. It’s tough to gauge how real that was, though, given that Thomas played just three games – all with Jameis Winston, who tends to throw deeper than most QBs.
What to Expect in 2023
  • We’ll see. Every summer for Thomas at this point starts with some version of the Saints hoping to have him ready for camp. For what it’s worth, he does expect to be fully ready to start this year’s camp.
  • Of course, it would be foolish to ignore that we’re now talking about a 30-year-old wideout with three consecutive years ruined by lower-body injuries – plus declining efficiency when he has seen the field.
  • Thomas has never not been a high-volume receiver when active, though. And that includes last season’s brief cameo.
  • This year presents an upgrade at QB. Derek Carr is coming off the worst season of his career, but the Saints gave him $150 million over four years on the open market. They clearly believe he can rebound.
  • HC Dennis Allen said they targeted Carr as soon as it became clear he was done in Vegas. Allen says he values intelligence highly at QB and called Carr “one of the more intelligent people I’ve ever been around in terms of football knowledge.”
  • The team also had former Raiders HC Jon Gruden visit in the spring to consult him on what Carr does best. Part of what Carr did under Gruden was not throw as deep downfield as he did last season under Josh McDaniels.
  • Shorter routes and better accuracy (vs. last year’s QBs) would be a good match for Thomas.
  • It’s tough to bet on Thomas regaining the target-share lead after ceding it to first-round rookie Chris Olave last season, though.

Adjust Michael Thomas's Projections

We'll recalculate this player's Projections (DS Proj/ only) and DMVP based on your opinion of the player. This adjustments will be made for ALL of your leagues on Draft Sharks

Go to My Account to see a full list of your adjustments.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chris Olave, WR NO

6:41pm EDT 9/10/23

Chris Olave goes for 112 yards in opener

WR Chris Olave led the Saints in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (112) in Sunday's narrow victory over the Titans. He drew 30.3% of QB Derek Carr's pass attempts for the game. WR Michael Thomas checked in next, catching 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards. WR Rashid Shaheed delivered a 5-89-1 receiving line on 6 targets. TE Juwan Johnson (3-36 on 5 targets) was the only other Saint to garner more than 2 looks. It was a strong start for the New Orleans passing game overall, but also quite possibly the best matchup they'll face in that area all season. Tennessee was the second-best scoring matchup for WRs last season, according to our strength of schedule formula; sixth-best for QBs. The only matchup more favorable for WRs in 2022 was Carolina, which New Orleans faces in Week 2.

View all Chris Olave Shark Bites »

WR Chris Olave led the Saints in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (112) in Sunday's narrow victory over the Titans. He drew 30.3% of QB Derek Carr's pass attempts for the game. WR Michael Thomas checked in next, catching 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards. WR Rashid Shaheed delivered a 5-89-1 receiving line on 6 targets. TE Juwan Johnson (3-36 on 5 targets) was the only other Saint to garner more than 2 looks. It was a strong start for the New Orleans passing game overall, but also quite possibly the best matchup they'll face in that area all season. Tennessee was the second-best scoring matchup for WRs last season, according to our strength of schedule formula; sixth-best for QBs. The only matchup more favorable for WRs in 2022 was Carolina, which New Orleans faces in Week 2.

View all Chris Olave Shark Bites »

Saints insider Jeff Duncan writes that WR Michael Thomas has had a "mixed" training camp. "At times, he has looked like the guy who dominated NFL defenses... In other instances, he’s looked like a shell of himself, a guy who has struggled to beat press coverage from reserve DBs and had to be reminded to not catch the ball with his body." That shouldn't come as a surprise. Thomas has played just 10 games over the last three seasons and is 30 now. Especially with the presence of ascending superstar WR Chris Olave, Thomas is unlikely to re-emerge as a dominant fantasy force.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints WR Michael Thomas is expected to be a full participant for the start of training camp on Wednesday, according to insider Nick Underhill. The key for Thomas will be staying healthy throughout the rest of the year. He's played just 10 games over the past three seasons due to an assortment of injuries. We're skeptical that Thomas can regain pre-injury form or production, especially competing for targets with WR Chris Olave. But Thomas is certainly capable of paying off his ninth-round, WR44 ADP.

View all Michael Thomas Shark Bites »

Saints QB Derek Carr obviously endured a rough final season with the Raiders. He got benched for the final two games and then released after the season. Before that, though, the veteran's performance declined significantly in multiple non-obvious categories. His 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since his rookie year (2014). Carr's 7.0 yards per pass attempt was his lowest mark since 2017, despite a career high in average depth of target. He posted his worst passer rating, Pro Football Focus passing grade and adjusted completion rate since 2014. And Carr's 2.8% INT rate was the worst of his career. The Saints obviously believe he can rebound, and Carr still finished 16th among QBs in total fantasy points; 20th in points per game. He's at least probably not a downgrade for New Orleans, but Carr sits just 26th in our QB rankings and isn't boosting the fantasy outlook for Chris Olave or any other Saints receiver.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Thomas, WR NO
Dynasty MVP 54.8
Position Rank #83 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
201
290
396
Dynasty Write-up
Even if Thomas stays healthy going forward, he figures to play second fiddle to Chris Olave. Plus, the once-elite WR1 is on the wrong side of 30.
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play