Raheem Mostert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Credit Mostert for a massive 2023. Alongside Puka Nacua, the Dolphin performed as a true fantasy MVP.

Here’s the reality check: Mostert’s TDs are set to come way down. And his overall workload is threatened by second-year RB De’Von Achane, who appeared in less than 11 full games as a rookie.

Treat the veteran as a low-end RB2/FLEX.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mostert’s TD prowess was among the surprise headlines of 2023.
  • Across 15 games, the former 49er scored a league-high 18 rushing TDs.
  • His previous career-high was 8 in 2019.
  • Mostert ranked third in rushes inside the ten yard-line (33). He tied for first in rushes inside the five (19).
• Among 36 RBs with 150+ carries, Mostert ranked second in EPA per rush, fifth in YPC, third in YAC per attempt, and third in explosive run rate.
  • A well-designed scheme from HC Mike McDaniel helped Mostert see an average of 6.46 defenders in the box -- near the bottom of the 36-RB sample.
• Mostert averaged 16.3 touches per game alongside breakout rookie De’Von Achane.
  • Achane topped Mostert in targets (37 to 32), despite playing in four fewer games.
• Mostert played last year at age 31, but he showed no sign of declined speed.
  • He reached 21.62 MPH on a 43-yard TD run, per Next Gen Stats. That was the tenth-fastest time among RBs/WRs.
  • He missed only two games with a knee/ankle injury. He sat out only one game in 2022 (knee).

What to Expect in 2024

• Mostert will play this season at age 32.
  • It might be a scary age on the surface, but it’s certainly not a deathknell.
  • Since 2000, 12 RBs age 32 or older have posted 12+ PPR points per game -- low-end RB2 numbers and up. Only two RBs topped 15 PPG.
  • Mostert isn’t your average age-32 RB, as he’s spread 674 career carries across 80 games.
• De’Vone Achane returns for year two.
  • He’s added weight this offseason, with the goal of seeing a boosted workload.
  • Miami added another RB in Round 4 speed back Jaylen Wright. He projects for a minor role as the RB3.
• The Fins’ O-line will be one to watch.
  • G Robert Hunt signed with Carolina in free agency.
  • As of this writing, C Connor Williams remains a free agent.