Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Shaheed remains the deep threat for the Saints as his average target depth has continued to climb throughout his career.

Derek Carr limits Shaheed’s upside, but there are enough targets available for Shaheed to be a bigger part of the new offense on a weekly basis.

Our 2024 WR rankings have Shaheed higher than his ADP due to spike week upside.

What We Learned Last Year

• Shaheed posted a season-long stat line of 46 catches for 719 yards and five TDs across 15 games.
• His per-game averages were significantly improved from his rookie season (2022):
  • 5.00 targets (up from 2.83)
  • 3.07 receptions (up from 2.33)
  • 47.9 yards (up from 40.7)
  • 15.6 yards per catch (down from 17.4)
  • 0.33 TDs (up from 0.17)
• Shaheed ranked as the PPR WR47 in total fantasy points and WR51 in points per game.
• He missed two games last year (Weeks 13 and 14) with a right thigh injury. He didn’t miss any games due to injury in 2022.
• He had three top-12 PPR finishes. He also had eleven WR37 or worse finishes.
• Shaheed’s target share improved slightly from 12.6% in 2022 (89th among WRs) to 14.2% (71st among WRs).
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Shaheed ranked 53rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• Utilized as a deep threat, he was 11th among those 89 WRs in average target depth at 14.6 yards. This was an increase from his 2022 aDOT of 11.6 yards.
• Shaheed did see a sharp decline in yards per route run from 2.59 in 2022 to 1.67 in 2023.

What to Expect in 2024

• Shaheed enters his third season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
  • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (604).
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
• Shaheed enters his third season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Shaheed’s career produces between 92-96% of his peak value at age-26.
• Shaheed drew 12.1% of Saints targets in nine games with a healthy Michael Thomas last year vs. a 16.0% share in his other six. (Thomas will not be back with the Saints this season.)