Sam LaPorta - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The fantasy case for LaPorta is easy to build. The argument against him: He might be going too early. He tied for third at the position in PPR points per game last year despite a 4-TD lead on the field. And Mark Andrews jumps ahead if you remove the game he left early with his knee injury. Early ADP has LaPorta going first at the position – often a half-round ahead of the next TE. He could certainly score that way. But that starting point means more downside risk and opportunity cost to drafting him. We’d rather wait another round and a half or more and take Mark Andrews.

What We Learned Last Year

• LaPorta was ready from the start.
• He topped 80% playing time in each of Detroit’s first two games, caught 4+ passes in each of the first four, and topped 50 receiving yards in three of those four.
• He finished the year with more PPR points than any rookie TE had ever scored. (Though 1961 Mike Ditka beat LaPorta in points per game.)
• No rookie TE has ever caught more passes than LaPorta’s 86. His rookie season also ranks third all-time at the position in yards and tied for second in TDs.
• LaPorta outscored Evan Engram by a point to lead all 2023 TEs in PPR scoring.
• He ranked fifth among that group in targets, seventh in target share, fourth in receptions, fifth in yards, and first in TDs – by four.
• Interestingly, just four of LaPorta’s 10 TDs came on end-zone targets. He tied four other TEs for fifth in end-zone looks. Three others scored 4+ TDs on such plays: Cole Kmet (6), Hunter Henry (5), and Dalton Schultz (4).
• LaPorta ranked sixth at the position in yards per route and fourth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

What to Expect in 2024

• It’s impossible not to expect good things fantasy wise from LaPorta going forward after he delivered top-shelf numbers among 2023 TEs and historically elite numbers for a rookie.
• It’s possible that LaPorta sees some TD regression. But he also might not. His 11.6% TD rate wasn’t outlandish for the position – or his situation.
  • Eight other TEs caught more than 10 passes and posted higher TD rates last year. That included Hunter Henry and both of Baltimore’s top 2 TEs.
  • Last year saw 15 TEs catch 10+ passes while posting higher TD rates than LaPorta’s 2023 number.
  • And history gives us plenty of examples of TEs scoring 8-10+ TDs in consecutive years.
• The Lions have ranked among the league’s top 5 in scoring and total yards each of the past two years. They climbed from 12th in total plays in OC Ben Johnson’s first season to second last year. And even with Lions RBs ranking among the league’s busiest in goal-line scores, QB Jared Goff has ranked sixth and fifth in red-zone pass attempts the past two seasons.
• LaPorta went from dominating his college team’s receiving to delivering strong athletic testing, hitting the NFL as an early second-round pick, starting right away, and posting historic rookie-year numbers.
• Add that to a strong, loaded offense that retained its successful OC, and the case for LaPorta looks strong this year and beyond.