Tetairoa McMillan Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

McMillan caught 70 balls for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs across 17 games last year. He ranked 22nd among WRs in catches, 13th in yards, and tied for 11th in TDs.

McMillan finished 23rd at his position in PPR points per game; 22nd in half-PPR.

He was more of a floor than ceiling producer. McMillan scored as a top-12 PPR WR just twice (with another week as WR13). But he fell outside the top-36 WRs in just five of 17 outings.

Usage & Role

McMillan saw 9 targets in his NFL debut and never gave up the lead role in Carolina’s passing game. His 122 targets tied for 12th among WRs, and his 23.1% target share ranked 17th.

McMillan played a particularly big role near the end zone. Among WRs, he ranked:

• seventh in red-zone targets (34)
• seventh in end zone targets (12)
• ninth in expected receiving TDs (7.7)

McMillan finished WR19 in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency & Regression

McMillan hauled in just 57.4% of his targets but averaged 14.5 yards per catch. His 8.3 yards per target ranked 28th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets last year.

McMillan’s 1.84 yards per route was good for 26th among those 76 WRs. That mark looks more impressive when you consider that Carolina’s other WRs combined for just 1.04 yards per route.

McMillan ranked 23rd among those 76 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 30th in Fantasy Points’ Separation Score.

Offensive Context

The 2025 Panthers finished 27th in both total yards and points.

It was a run-leaning offense that leaned even further in that direction after the opening few games.

From Week 4 on, Carolina ranked:

• 24th in pass rate (52.7%)
• 30th neutral pass (49.8%)
• 30th in PROE (-5.7%)

That left the Panthers 21st in pass attempts, 26th in pass yards, and 19th in pass TDs.

QB Bryce Young’s 6.3 yards per attempt ranked 34th among 42 qualifying QBs. He finished 27th in PFF passing grade.

Historical Production & Trends

McMillan was the eighth pick of the 2025 draft after an uber-productive three-year run at Arizona. He led all true freshmen with 702 receiving yards in 2022 and topped 1,300 yards in each of his final two seasons.

Injury History & Durability

McMillan played all 17 games last year but dealt with hamstring, foot, and ankle issues over the second half of the season. He notably failed to reach 45 receiving yards in four of his final six games.

McMillan also needed surgery for a lower-leg injury in April 2024 but was ready for the start of that season.

Projected Role & Competition

Carolina returns a similar pass-catching corps this season, with third-round rookie WR Chris Brazzell the only noteworthy addition. He’s one of the best downfield receivers in this year’s class and should immediately push Xavier Legette for work. But Brazzell is unlikely to noticeably impact McMillan’s volume.

Jalen Coker looks like the Panthers’ No. 2 WR. He missed the first six games of last season and averaged 3.9 targets on a 13.7% target share over the final 11. Coker’s best outing came in the playoff loss to the Rams: 9 catches, 134 yards, and a TD.

Coker looks like a nice player for Carolina but not a threat to McMillan’s lead role in this passing game. Here’s how they stacked up across 12 shared games last year, including that playoff loss:

Supporting Cast

QB Bryce Young returns for his fourth NFL season, putting a cap on this offense’s upside. Young has mustered just 6.0 yards per attempt for his career, including 6.3 in each of the last two seasons.

Carolina hasn’t finished better than 23rd in points, total yards, or passing yards in any of Young’s three seasons.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their third season running the Panthers offense. The results have been underwhelming so far.

Canales spent 2023 as the Buccaneers' OC. That offense was better, finishing 20th in points, 23rd in total yards, and 17th in passing yards.

The 2023 Bucs and the 2024 Panthers ran balanced offenses, ranking 15th and 11th, respectively, in pass rate.

Canales shifted run-heavy last year, with the Panthers finishing 23rd in pass rate. Unless Young takes a big step forward this season, expect a similar run-pass split.

Paths to Ceiling

McMillan is coming off a strong rookie season and is a strong bet to control targets in Carolina again. He’s an obvious candidate to take a Year 2 leap.

If Young also improves in his fourth season and makes this even a league-average passing game, McMillan could flirt with WR1 production.

Risk Factors

Young is the risk factor. He’s simply been one of the league’s worst passers since arriving in 2023. If that continues to be the case this year, McMillan could stay stuck in low-end WR2 territory.