Zach Charbonnet - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Charbonnet cut into RB Ken Walker’s playing time as a rookie last year but didn’t earn enough work to be a real fantasy factor.

The Seahawks have a brand new coaching staff this season led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb, which can’t hurt Charbonnet’s chances of earning a bigger role. We’ll keep an eye on the backfield throughout the summer.

At minimum, Charbonnet is a high-end handcuff to Walker, who’s missed two games in each of his first two NFL seasons.

What We Learned Last Year

• Charbonnet totaled 462 yards and one TD on the ground, plus 33 catches for 209 yards, in 16 games as a rookie last year.
• He missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury.
• Charbonnet topped a 26% snap rate in just one of five games prior to that injury.
• He played 42+% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in each of his final 11 games.
• Those 11 games included three that RB Ken Walker missed all or most of. Charbonnet’s lines in those games:
  • 15-47-0 rushing and 6-22-0 receiving
  • 14-47-0 rushing and 4-11-0 receiving
  • 19-60-1 rushing and 1-39-0 receiving
• In his eight games post-injury with a healthy Walker, Charbonnet averaged 4.6 carries and 2.4 targets.
• Charbonnet beat Walker in yards after contact per attempt and NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt last year. Walker beat Charbonnet in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and Elusive Rating.
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Charbonnet ranked:
  • 19th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 23rd in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 31st in PFF rushing grade
  • 32nd in Elusive Rating
• Walker beat Charbonnet in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade. Charbonnet ranked just 38th in yards per route and 21st in receiving grade among 43 qualifying RBs.
• Charbonnet was the 52nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. He was a three-down back in his final two college seasons at UCLA, totaling 2,496 rushing yards and 518 receiving yards.

What to Expect in 2024

• Last year’s work split between Walker and Charbonnet might not mean much heading into 2024. The Seahawks have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
  • The Huskies ranked 69th and then 106th in rushing yards per game.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb deployed a committee backfield at Washington in 2022, with Wayne Taulapapa averaging 10.8 carries per game and Cameron Davis averaging 9.7. Grubb leaned on Dillon Johnson as a feature back this past year, feeding him 60% of the team’s carries.
• The 2023 Seahawks ranked:
  • 15th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade
  • 17th in ESPN’s run-block win rate
  • 25th in adjusted line yards
• Seattle might have as many as four new starters on the offensive line this season: OT George Fant, Gs Laken Tomlinson and McClendon Curtis, and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi. 2022 first-round LT Charles Cross returns for his third season.