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Murray lands in an ideal rebound spot with Kevin O’Connell calling plays and Minnesota supplying proven playmakers. The passing volume might not spike, but Murray’s history shows he can add fantasy value on the ground. He’s 11th in our QB rankings, making him a value pick at ADP.
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A foot injury limited Murray to only five starts. That small sample produced 962 yards, 6 TDs, and 3 INTs. He added 173 yards and 1 score on the ground.
In four full games, he finished QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB16. His 19.0 fantasy points per game ranked 20th.
Murray averaged 32.5 pass attempts in his complete games. That volume is right in line with his numbers from 2024 (31.8) and 2023 (33.5).
Murray’s aggressiveness dipped slightly, with his 8.1% deep throw rate trailing his 10.0% mark in 2024 and 10.1% in 2023.
The bright spot came on the ground: 3.75 scrambles per game, up from 2.35 in 2024 and 2.0 in 2023 after an injury-shortened 2022. More on that in the Injury History & Durability section below.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Kyler ranked:
Murray’s completion rate set a career high, improving from 74.9% in 2024 and 73.5% in 2023. But that was helped by a career-low 6.3-yard aDOT, fourth-lowest among QBs.
His 6.0 yards per attempt also marked a career low, although efficiency has never been a strength with a career 6.9 YPA. (The league average in 2025 was 7.0.)
Arizona’s O-line ranked 21st in ESPN pass-block win rate and 27th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.
Murray played all four of his complete games alongside Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., but that stretch came before Michael Wilson’s late-season emergence. Wilson managed just 6 catches for 36 yards over the first month of the season.
Murray left Week 5 with a mid-foot sprain and missed the final 12 games.
He played all 17 games in 2024 after an ACL tear cost him the end of 2022 and kept him out until Week 10 the following season.
The Cardinals released Murray in early March, and he joined the Vikings on a one-year deal less than two weeks later.
In mid-August, Murray was named the starter over J.J. McCarthy. No surprise there: Last year, McCarthy ranked 33rd among 42 qualifiers in adjusted completion rate and 40th in catchable throw rate.
If Murray falters, it won’t stem from a lack of supporting talent.
The Vikings return Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison after a QB-driven dip in production. In 2024, that duo accounted for 49% of the targets, 45.6% of the catches, 54.9% of the receiving yards, and 54.2% of the receiving TDs.
Jauan Jennings replaces Jalen Nailor as the No. 3 WR. He led the 49ers in receiving yards in consecutive seasons and brings proven value in contested situations, leading all pass catchers with 39 contested catches on a strong 58.2% catch rate over the past two seasons.
T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season. He recorded career lows in catches and yards per game last season, but an awful QB situation made him tough to fairly evaluate.
The O-line looks like a wild card after finishing 14th in PFF pass-blocking grade but just 25th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 32nd in adjusted sack rate last year.
Four of five starters return. The key here will be getting a full season from LT Christian Darrisaw, who made only 10 appearances in 2025 while dealing with the lingering effects of a 2024 ACL tear.
This group will also replace veteran C Ryan Kelly, likely with Blake Brandel. Kelly ranked third among 45 qualifying centers in PFF pass-blocking grade; Brandel finished 15th.
Overall, Murray gets a favorable supporting cast, with the coaching staff strengthening his outlook.
You only need to look back two seasons to see what HC Kevin O’Connell can get out of a veteran QB.
He helped steer pre-2024 bust Sam Darnold to a QB7 finish in total fantasy points. Darnold got there with a 6.4% TD rate, fifth-highest among qualifiers and well above Murray’s career high of 5.0%. But Darnold also didn’t add much as a rusher: 212 yards and a score.
The Vikings finished 20th in pass rate with Darnold and 13th last year with the disastrous QB situation. That followed seasons at fifth and sixth in pass rate, mostly under Kirk Cousins.
Our projections have the Vikings at a 55.4% pass rate, in part because Murray’s rushing volume shifts some of his dropbacks to the ground. It doesn’t lower his ceiling so much as change where the points come from.
O’Connell also has a history of leaning pass in scoring situations.
Pass Rate Inside 20 Yard-line | Pass Rate Inside 10 Yard-line | |
2022 | second | eighth |
2023 | first | second |
2024 | fifth | fifth |
2025 | third | first |
Murray probably isn’t getting back to his 2020 rushing peak, when he reached 819 yards and 11 TDs. But he doesn’t need that to matter in fantasy, having twice reached 500 rushing yards and 5 scores in other seasons. That level of rushing would give him the look of a top-10 fantasy QB.
Murray’s passing-TD ceiling gets a boost from Minnesota’s WR depth and O’Connell’s history of leaning pass near the goal line.
Murray will start Week 1 for a contending team. But the presence of McCarthy -- a former Round 1 pick -- keeps open the possibility that Murray falls short of 17 games.
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Vikings Go With Kyler Murray Over JJ McCarthy, Lifting the Offense's Fantasy Outlook
Vikings Go With Kyler Murray Over JJ McCarthy, Lifting the Offense's Fantasy Outlook
After signing with the team as a free agent this offseason, Kyler Murray has officially been named the starting quarterback for the Vikings per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. That decision makes former top-10 pick JJ McCarthy the backup.
It's Clear Who Justin Jefferson Wants His QB To Be
It's Clear Who Justin Jefferson Wants His QB To Be
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson spoke glowingly of QB Kyler Murray on Monday. “He understands the game. He understands the defenses," Jefferson said on KFAN. "He understands how to put touch on the ball, just enough to where it gets to where it’s gotta go, without making it difficult for us. He understands the game a lot more… he kinda throws the ball before you even get out that break… he’s a smart guy, and he’s a competitor.”
Kevin O’Connell Hints At Vikings New Offense Look With Kyler Murray
Kevin O’Connell Hints At Vikings New Offense Look With Kyler Murray
Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was asked on KFAN1003 about the new offense with Kyler Murray at the helm. O’Connell called it the “Justin Jefferson program” and might have revealed some expectations for new QB Kyler Murray. O’Connell also mentioned that defenses will want to have a spy for Murray (and then quickly added, or “any of our other QBs”). But, the comment shows a potential plan for the offense: help Justin Jefferson get open by forcing defenses to respect Murray’s rushing.
Kyler Murray Lands Where We All Expected
Kyler Murray Lands Where We All Expected
The Vikings are signing QB Kyler Murray to a one-year deal, according to multiple reports. That sets him up to compete with third-year QB J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in 2026. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that the deal includes a "no-tag clause." So Murray's clearly hoping to prove himself this season and then land a big deal ahead of 2027.
Kyler Murray Is A Free Man
Kyler Murray Is A Free Man
The Cardinals will release QB Kyler Murray when the new league year starts on Wednesday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. That's barring a trade happening before now and then -- which won't. Arizona owes Murray $36.8 million guaranteed in 2026, and another $19.5 million for 2017 would have triggered on March 15 if Murray was still on the roster. So this move has been expected for a while.
See whether Kyler Murray is available in your leagues.
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