FF Tips

2020 WR Strength of Schedule

By Matt Schauf 9:07am EDT 7/22/20


Are you already excited to see what the Joe Brady offense can do in Carolina? If so, then you’re going to like how this article ends.

AFC East wideouts, meanwhile, could face a tougher draw. The Bills, in particular, appear to get an uneasy finish to what their fans hope will be a charmed season.

But before we get to that, let’s back it up a little.

Like I mentioned in last week’s RB strength of schedule article, projecting strength of schedule ahead of the season can be dangerous. We still have a lot of questions to be answered through training camp and even into the regular season. For WRs, especially, the points-allowed rankings can vary wildly year to year -- with little correlation as to which stats predict the following year’s performance.

So we’ll stop short of ranking the whole set of WR defenses, or even saying which teams will definitely help or hinder the PPR scoring for your wideouts. But we can read the trends and changes to pick out some defenses that look like the best bets to either add or subtract fantasy points from WRs.

Before we get to the teams, let’s look at the potential impact each way.

I found the league median for PPR points allowed to WRs each season, and then compared each ranking spot to that median for the scoring impact above or below that level. So, the further below 100% a defense, the worse the matchup for WRs. And vice versa.

Here are the average WR scoring impacts for each spot over the past 3 seasons …

The 7 weakest defenses all add more than 9 percentage points in scoring vs. the median. That group averaged an addition of about 15 percentage points to WR scoring. On the other end, the 7 toughest defenses all sapped more than 12 percentage points from WR scoring vs. the league median. That group, on average, limited wideouts to 82.2% of league-median fantasy scoring.

We’ll use those numbers later to gauge potential scoring impact.


Positive matchups

These 5 teams look like good bets to be positive scoring matchups for fantasy WRs ...

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