2022's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas
I don’t know about you, but I’d rather work with the sportsbooks than against them.
That’s what we’re doing here: Cheating off the sportsbooks to see who the best and worst offenses will be this season.
Using points spreads and over/unders for this season’s games, we can deduce how many points the books are projecting each team to score each week.
The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least.
No big surprises at the top, with the Bills, Chiefs, Bucs and Chargers checking in as the top 4.
It’s interesting that the Packers are projected to score the 5th most points per game, despite the loss of WR Davante Adams. That might suggest some value in QB Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s WRs.
I was also a bit surprised to see the Vikings rank 8th here. WR Justin Jefferson and RB Dalvin Cook are priced accordingly. But QB Kirk Cousins, WRs Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn and TE Irv Smith could out-perform ADP if the books are right.
On the flip side, the Broncos rank lower than expected at 15th. Fantasy drafters are clearly excited for this Russell Wilson-led offense, with RB Javonte Williams carrying a Round 2 ADP, WR Courtland Sutton going in Round 5 and WR Jerry Jeudy in Round 6.
Same story with the Bengals, who check in just 17th in average implied points per game. It’s worth noting that the books were low on the Bengals last year, too, projecting them for the 5th fewest points per game. That, of course, turned out to be a big whiff.
Before we get out of here, let’s look at each team’s 2022 implied points per game vs. their 2021 actual points per game to see which teams the books expect to improve and regress the most this year:
We’ve been hyping up the Jaguars and Giants offenses under new coaching staffs all offseason. Glad to see the sportsbooks agree.
The Dolphins also pop here as a team expected to make a leap with the additions of HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill, among others.
On the flip side, the books are calling for some regression in Dallas, where the Cowboys lost WR Amari Cooper and a couple of starting offensive linemen this offseason.
It also looks like the books are hearing the same things we’ve been hearing out of New England: The Patriots offense is struggling without former OC Josh McDaniels.