Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 16: Jayden Reed Set to Soar

It's a must-win spot for a chance at advancing to the finals. Week 16 offers a blowup opportunity for Jayden Reed, but a problematic matchup for Ashton Jeanty and some other normally reliable starters.  

The right lineup decisions, powered by Draft Sharks rankings, can make all the difference.

Your Draft Sharks Team Dashboard will help you set your ideal lineup, applying our award-winning weekly projections to your custom scoring.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy should feast on the fading Colts 

Start

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

QB7 on Mon 8:15 PM @ IND

Bye14

3D PPR ROS140.4

3D Value24.5

Purdy is coming off a season-best 295 passing yards and 3 TDs. He has posted a pair of top-10 finishes since returning from a toe injury: 

• Week 11: QB7
• Week 12: QB23
• Week 13: QB16
• Week 15: QB3

The 49ers have won all four of those starts by an average score of 31-16. Purdy has accounted for multiple TDs in five of his six starts and draws another ideal setup in Week 16. San Francisco carries the second-highest implied total (26.5).

The Colts have allowed 286 passing yards per game over their last four and will struggle to sustain drives with Philip Rivers under center.

Purdy, meanwhile, has averaged 266 passing yards, 24 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game at Levi’s Stadium this season.

Expect another strong outing in the fantasy semifinals.

Sit

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford

QB17 on Thu 8:15 PM @ SEA

Bye8

3D PPR ROS309.1

3D Value25.7

Stafford enters Week 16 as the QB4 in fantasy, leading the league in TD passes (37) and ranking second in passing yards (3,722). Under normal circumstances, he would be an automatic start. This week, he is not.

First, he won’t have Davante Adams, who is officially doubtful with a hamstring injury. Adams leads the league in red-zone targets (31) and TDs (12).

Second, the matchup is difficult. The Rams travel to Seattle on short rest to face a Seahawks defense that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs. In their Week 11 meeting, Seattle held Stafford to 130 passing yards and a QB17 finish.

Third, the weather adds another obstacle. Thursday’s forecast calls for mid-40s temperatures and an 87% chance of rain.

Stafford is still capable of a solid game, but everything points to a lower ceiling. He profiles as a QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Start

One rookie RB stays hot, while Ashton Jeanty is in trouble

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones

RB17 on Sun 1:00 PM @ NYG

Bye6

3D PPR ROS175.4

3D Value27.6

Per Jared’s Week 16 Matchups That Matter, the Vikings have the second-best rushing matchup this week. The Giants have the worst rush defense DVOA (14.4%) in the league.

This bodes well for Minnesota’s backfield. 

Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 8, Jones has been the leader in the Vikings’ backfield. He’s played 55% of snaps, versus Jordan Mason’s 32%. He’s also commanded 51% of the RB carries and ranks fourth on the team with a 13% target share. 

In addition to the aforementioned matchup numbers, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most receptions (68) to RBs.

Expect Jones to continue working ahead of Mason, who hasn't out-carried him since Week 9.

Jones carries top-12 upside this week.

R.J. Harvey, Denver Broncos

Harvey left Week 15 with a rib injury but has practiced in full. Since becoming the starter in Week 11, Harvey has earned a 10% target share and 63% of the team’s carries, including 83% of attempts inside the 5.

That red-zone role has powered his 4 TDs in the last four games. Harvey has averaged 15.4 PPR points in that stretch, ranking 17th among RBs.

Jacksonville presents a mixed matchup. The Jaguars allow the fewest rushing yards per game but have given up the 13th-most receptions and 12th-most receiving yards to RBs. They have also allowed an RB finish with top-20 weekly numbers in five of their last seven games. 

Harvey is averaging 18 touches per game as the starter. His red-zone usage and steady volume make him a strong play for a Broncos offense with the ninth-highest implied total (24.5).

Sit

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty

RB20 on Sun 4:25 PM @ HOU

Bye8

3D PPR ROS228.3

3D Value25.4

Jeanty has the role we want, but not the production. He owns 75% of the Raiders’ carries and ranks second on the team with 49 receptions. He averages 17.8 touches per game, 12th in the league.

Despite the volume, he ranks 22nd in rushing and 47th in yards per carry (3.5). His efficiency metrics lag as well: 45th in breakaway rate and 31st in yards after contact per attempt.

Now he draws a brutal matchup. The Raiders face Houston’s No. 1-ranked defense, which has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs.

Las Vegas is implied for just 11.5 points, the lowest team total of the entire season. Jeanty’s workload keeps him in RB2 territory, but this matchup makes him a risky start.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren

RB27 on Sun 4:25 PM @ DET

Bye5

3D PPR ROS192.7

3D Value23.7

Warren remains part of a productive split, but Kenneth Gainwell has proved more reliable lately.

Gainwell has out-targeted Warren 65-38 for the season and holds a 51% to 41% edge in route rate. He has tallied 6+ receptions in four of his past five games.

Illness may have limited Warren last week, but Gainwell has outscored him in three of the past four games and now leads in season-long scoring.

Week 16 projects another split tilted toward Gainwell. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point underdog against a defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to RBs. A pass-leaning game script would favor Gainwell, whose 21% target share since Week 11 ranks second on the team and ties Ashton Jeanty for second among all RBs.

Warren is a risky play and should be benched if you have viable alternatives.

Start

Jayden Reed is in a blowup spot against a shaky Chicago secondary

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed

WR26 on Sat 12:00 AM @ CHI

Bye5

3D PPR ROS59.0

3D Value23.7

Chicago has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs and delivered the largest boost to slot WRs, according to Fantasy Points.

Reed lines up in the slot on 70.8% of his snaps and will see plenty of S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who ranks 91st of 103 qualifying safeties in PFF coverage grade.

When these teams met in Week 14, Gardner-Johnson allowed 8 catches, 97 yards, and a TD on nine targets. Reed caught all four of his targets despite running only 17 routes in his first game back.

Last week, he jumped to 31 routes and caught five of six targets for 66 yards.

Reed is a WR3 with WR2 upside in a strong matchup.

Rashid Shaheed, Seattle Seahawks

Rashid Shaheed

WR35 on Thu 8:15 PM vs LAR

Bye8

3D PPR ROS162.6

3D Value14.7

After a slow start in Seattle, Shaheed’s production has picked up in the last two weeks. He posted 74 yards in Week 15 and tied for second on the team in targets and receptions. His 82% route rate and 22% target share were his highest marks as a Seahawk. Both numbers have increased for three straight weeks.

He now draws a favorable matchup with the Rams, who have allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs. This will be Shaheed’s third meeting with Los Angeles. His Week 11 outing came while still learning the offense, but he scored 11.8 PPR points against them in Week 9 (with the Saints).

Shaheed drew an end-zone target last week and even ran more routes than Cooper Kupp. He has scored double-digit points in back-to-back games and is trending toward another quality performance against a defense vulnerable to WRs.

Sit

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Emeka Egbuka

WR31 on Sun 1:00 PM @ CAR

Bye9

3D PPR ROS218.7

3D Value25.5

Egbuka opened the season as the No. 3 WR in PPR scoring through Week 5. But he has topped 10 PPR points only twice since Week 6, despite a robust 29% target share. He ranks as the WR34 during that span.

With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back last week, Egbuka dropped to a 64% snap share and a season-low 63% route rate. Chris Godwin ran a route on 95% of dropbacks, and Evans’ role should grow.

The matchup also works against him. Carolina allows the 10th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs. Egbuka has been held under 50 yards in four of his last five games and has not scored since Week 10.

He remains a steady target earner, but keep your expectations modest.

Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs

WR34 on Sun 1:00 PM @ BAL

Bye14

3D PPR ROS193.5

3D Value14.6

Diggs has cratered, scoring fewer than 6 PPR points in three straight games. The issue is not the schedule; two of those matchups came against the Giants and Bengals.

His usage has collapsed. From Weeks 1-11, Diggs carried a 70% route rate, a 24% target share, and 13 PPR points per game (WR14). Since Week 12, those numbers have dropped to a 57% route rate, 12% target share, and 5.1 PPR points (WR80).

His snap share has plummeted to 48% in the last three games, trailing Mack Hollins (80%) and Kayshon Boutte (77%).

The matchup is no longer favorable either. Baltimore has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to WRs over its last five games and only three WR TDs since Week 6.

Perhaps the Patriots are managing Diggs’ workload for the NFL playoffs. But whatever the cause, he’s no longer a reliable fantasy option.

Tight Ends

The Rams may struggle, but Colby Parkinson should be busy

Start

Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams

Colby Parkinson

TE13 on Thu 8:15 PM @ SEA

Bye8

3D PPR ROS70.4

3D Value11.9

Davante Adams (hamstring) is not expected to play, and his absence opened the door for Parkinson’s largest role of the season in Week 15. Parkinson set season highs in routes (27), target share (19%), receiving yards (75), and PPR points (24.5).

He has now posted top-11 TE numbers in five of the Rams’ last six games despite playing only 69% of the snaps. Adams leaves behind a 25% target share and a league-high 35.6% red-zone share. That volume has to go somewhere.

The Seahawks arrive as the eighth-friendliest team to TE scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed, 29th vs. WRs. That sets Parkinson up as a key target with a good shot at another top-12 finish.

Sit

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers averaged 4.4 yards per attempt in his return and will start again in Week 16. That spells trouble for the Colts’ passing game.

Warren saw a healthy 24% target share from Rivers last week, but turned those six targets into only 3 catches for 19 yards, his second straight game under 20 receiving yards.

The San Francisco matchup isn’t scary, yet the Colts carry the sixth-lowest implied total at home. That points to limited upside for the entire Indy offense.

Next Up

Week 16 Matchups That Matter: Can Dallas' Defense Save The Chargers' Passing Game?

Next Article  

Jody Smith, Analyst

Jody Smith has been playing fantasy football for over 30 years, the last 15 as an analyst, writer, and editor. Jody's rankings have been among the most consistent, placing him inside the top-10 in multi-year accuracy.