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Adonai Mitchell Dynasty Value

By Kevin English | Updated on Mon, 22 Apr 2024 . 10:38 AM EDT
The size, speed, and testing numbers are there. But the Adonai Mitchell dynasty value remains mysterious after uneven college production.

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Mitchell carries plenty of intrigue.

He looks the part of an NFL WR at 6'2, 205 pounds.

His film – mostly from 2023 – shows big-play ability.

He tested wonderfully at the Combine (9.98 Relative Athletic Score).

But should the late breakout concern you? And are there legit concerns over his effort?

Let’s hunt for answers ...

Adonai Mitchell Dynasty Values

Dynasty 1-qb Dynasty Superflex
Non-PPR 52.0 Non-PPR 33.6
PPR 46.1 PPR 36.4
TE Premium 46.5 TE Premium 35.5

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Adonai Mitchell Draft Profile

Position: WR
Height: 6'2
Weight: 205
BMI:
26.3
Draft Age: 21.6
NFL Draft Pick: TBD


Draft Sharks Model Score: 7.72
Analytics Score: 0.64
Film Score: 0.45
Production Score: 0.44

Adonai Mitchell Combine Results

Wingspan Arm Length HAnd Size 40-yard Dash 10-yard split
77 5/8" 32 3/8" 9" 4.34 1.52
Bench Press Vertical Broad Jump 3-cone drill 20-yard shuttle
- 39.5" 11' 4" - -

Percentiles vs Combine WRs since 1999, per MockDraftable

 

Adonai Mitchell College Stats

Games targets receptions receiving yards yards per catch RECEIVING tds
2021 15 52 29 426 14.7 4
2022 6 17 9 134 14.9 3
2023 14 86 55 845 15.4 11

Promising Start

Mitchell first committed to Ole Miss before pivoting to Georgia.

Soon, he’d earn a role for the eventual national champs. 

Mitchell’s 29 catches ranked third on the team and trailed Ladd McConkey by only two. He notched 21 fewer yards than McConkey on two fewer catches.

Mitchell wasn’t flawless, though. Heavy downfield usage and 6 drops (17.1%) contributed to a poor catch rate (55.8%).

Note that Georgia’s passing game featured plenty of NFL talent: 

  • McConkey
  • Brock Bowers
  • Jermaine Burton
  • four games of George Pickens (torn ACL)

So how would Mitchell fare in 2022, with Pickens and Burton off the team?

Injury Ruins Second Season

Year 2 began with promise: 4 catches, 65 yards, and 1 TD against Oregon. 

Then, the following week, a high-ankle sprain took Mitchell out for the regular season.

“One snap can change your life,” he said via ESPN upon returning. “It’s humbling. I’m just happy to be here now.”

Indeed, Mitchell suited up for the SEC Championship. He stayed healthy for two postseason games, notching lines of 3-43-1 and 1-22-1.

Come early 2023, Mitchell’s college journey took a major twist.

New Digs

After two seasons at Georgia, Mitchell transferred to the University of Texas.

The move clearly paid off, as he caught 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 TDs. That includes a 3-78-2 line in his toughest test: at Alabama. One score came against potential Round 1 CB Kool-Aid McKinstry.

So Mitchell’s a slam dunk prospect, right? 

Nope. Let’s look beneath the surface to see why … 

Sharing the Spotlight

Mitchell led Texas in TD catches, but he trailed teammate Xavier Worthy in catches and yards. 

Here’s how that pair stacked up in some key metrics:

Adonai Mitchell

Yards Per Route Run: 1.72

Market Share - Catches: 17.4%

Market Share - Receiving Yards: 20.9%

Target Share: 19.7%

Xavier Worthy

Yards Per Route Run: 2.14

Market Share - Catches: 23.7%

Market Share - Receiving Yards: 25.1%

Target Share: 26%

That's a clean sweep for Worthy.

Now, getting outproduced by a teammate doesn't discount Mitchell as a future dynasty asset. Especially not one with Worthy's speed and pedigree. Still, it's an important part of the evaluation, and dynasty managers need to take notice.

Let's get to the film and see what else we can uncover.

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The Draft War Room is your fantasy football cheat sheet for dynasty rookie drafts. Sync your league today to see how Adonai Mitchell and the rest of the rookies rank in your league.

 

Adonai Mitchell Highlights

Games watched: Kansas State (2023), Alabama (2023), TCU (2023), Texas Tech (2023), Kansas (2023)

Not One Dimensional

Mitchell primarily played outside in HC Steve Sarkisian’s offense.

While his best work came downfield, the tape shows examples of impressive foot quickness to uncover in short areas.

This first clip includes just one part of an 8-149-1 line vs. Kansas State. Mitchell quickly separates from No. 10 and secures the catch. 

Adonai Mitchell's dynasty value is bolstered by his short-range separation ability.

Dangerous Downfield

Mitchell can win downfield thanks to his excellent speed and ball-tracking ability. 

Check this out: At the Combine, Mitchell led all WRs with a top speed of 23.84 MPH in the 40-yard dash, per Next Gen Stats. He also paced the group at 14.57 MPH within the first five yards.

Texas knew this and purposefully used Mitchell accordingly; 25.6% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield. 

Here’s one example vs. TCU where Mitchell adjusts to an underthrown ball. There were several examples of off-target deep balls on his tape …

Adonai Mitchell's downfield ball tracking supplies a boost to his dynasty value.

Speed. Ball tracking. Hands. This next clip shows another example of what Mitchell can bring to an NFL team.

Perhaps most impressively, Mitchell’s able to gain clear downfield separation despite the Kansas State DB playing 9 yards off…

Downfield ability gives a huge boost to Adonai Mitchell's dynasty value.

Note that Mitchell dropped only one pass last season.

Where Does He Go Wrong?

As for his negatives -- they’re frankly tough to find on tape. Broadly, I’d say the biggest one is his below-average production profile.

Mitchell also didn’t show much post-catch in college, averaging 3.0 YAC per reception for his career. I believe a good chunk of that comes from his downfield usage.

So let’s focus on an unusual wrinkle in Mitchell’s game – one that should get ironed out in the pros.

Combine Quote Catches Attention

Mitchell doesn’t consistently run full-speed routes.

But don’t take my word for it. Here’s what came out of his Combine press conference. 

"I like to change my pace in routes. I never run routes full speed," Mitchell said in Indianapolis. "That's just a part of my game that allows me to run routes for the whole drive. I mostly feel I'm in control when I'm running routes with the people I'm going against.”

Interesting. Maybe even something a fair number of WRs practice but don’t say out loud.

Still, Mitchell’s effort level fluctuates on tape. The final clip below shows one example. 

I’m OK with the initial route, even if it’s not at full speed. But when QB Quinn Ewers needs someone to uncover, Mitchell just runs himself out of the play.

Adonai Mitchell's dynasty value shouldn't be hurt by his tendency to conserve energy in college.

Ultimately, I don't see this as an issue in the NFL.

 

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Mitchell is a 21-year-old with only two seasons as a full-time WR. One surfaced at Texas, where he put himself in the spotlight as a potential Round 1 pick. 

He checks boxes for size and athleticism, while the tape gives us an exciting (albeit small) sample of pro potential.

Ultimately, we're left to evaluate a WR with 93 catches in 35 career games. His career yards per route run: an ugly 1.68.

So be aware of the red flag here. But also be open to Mitchell's high ceiling should he land on a ready-made offense like Buffalo or Kansas City.

(Check out Mitchell's current  rookie ADP.)

 

Adonai Mitchell Team Fit: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo lost about 100 targets this offseason – mostly from Gabe Davis leaving.

By adding Mitchell, the Bills would replace Davis with a younger, cheaper, and more explosive talent. It’s a realistic team-building move for GM Brandon Beane.

Sure, Curtis Samuel arrived in free agency. But expect him to largely take from Khalil Shakir.

Mitchell + Allen = Fireworks

Of course, Josh Allen adds appeal to any early-round WR. He’d give Mitchell a real shot to excel as a dynamic deep threat.

Allen's ranked top 12 in deep-passing percentage and PFF deep-passing grade for four straight seasons. 

At 28, his prime should stick around throughout Mitchell’s rookie deal.

 

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