It’s time, folks.
We’re finally ready to kick off this 2020 NFL season with the Texans visiting the Chiefs … for the 3rd time since the start of last season. And the past 2 meetings gave us plenty of points.
Week 6 found Houston going into Kansas City and nabbing a victory. Deshaun Watson overcame a pair of INTs to throw for 280 yards and a TD and run for another 2 scores. Carlos Hyde racked up a 26-116-1 rushing line. Patrick Mahomes threw for 273 yards and 3 scores, with 2 of them going to Tyreek Hill in his 1st game back from a shoulder injury.
The playoff rematch got off to a shocking start, with the Texans tallying the first 24 points. Watson threw for 388 and 2 scores in that one, and ran for another TD. DeAndre Hopkins caught 9 of 14 targets for 118 yards -- not quite enough to keep Bill O’Brien from trading him after the season. But Mahomes racked up 321 yards and 5 TDs: 3 to Travis Kelce amid a monster day (10-134 receiving). Damien Williams scored another 2 TDs (and caught 1) as the Chiefs started their championship run with a 51-31 explosion.
This round carries the week’s highest over/under -- 3 points ahead of #2 (Cowboys at Rams). Kansas City arrives as a 9-point favorite, giving the Chiefs the week’s highest implied point total by 3.5 over Baltimore.
So there should be offense available yet again. But how should we mine that for our DFS Showdown lineups?
Let’s take a look at the value charts …
If you really want to differentiate from the field here, then you could trying going away from Mahomes -- at least in the Captain spot. But it’s hard to imagine the guy not having at least a good game here. And we saw the ceiling the last meeting. Even our projection from Mahomes has him reaching the 300-yard bonus on DK. And even at $2200 more than Hill and $3400 more than Kelce in Showdown salary, Mahomes still lands as the best value beyond the low-salary options. So let’s look at what we can fit with him in the captain spot -- which multiplies the salary (and points) by 1.5.
If you want to put Mahomes there and stack Hill and Kelce with him, then you already (with $11,500 left) cannot afford Watson. If you’re submitting a lineup with no Watson, then you should probably get the Chiefs’ D in there.
The remaining $8100 offers some flexibility for the final 2 spots. You can add Harrison Butker and still have room for the highest-ranking Texan in the value chart. Cobb’s shorter-range game has a chance to align with a disappointing Watson outing: many targets for the limited slot guy; not so much for the speedsters outside.
If you’re playing Mahomes in the captain spot and want to fit Watson, then using Cobb or a Houston WR over Will Fuller would give you much more spending room for the other slots and likely differentiate from the field. We’ll see how the matchups play out this year, but it’s worth noting that the Chiefs allowed the 5th-most PPR points to TEs last season while yielding the 2nd-fewest points to WRs. No defense allowed fewer WR receptions.
FanDuel pricing for Showdowns continues to look like a joke vs. the pricing on DraftKings. Keep in mind, too, that the MVP slot here (“Captain” in DK Showdowns) doesn’t multiply the player’s salary -- only the points by 1.5.
It’s not hard to fit 3 worthwhile options around the 2 QBs on this site -- especially if you’re submitting multiple lineups.