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Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 14

By Jared Smola 11:23am EST 12/10/23

Welcome to Week 14’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 14 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 14!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Eagles at Cowboys (51.5)

2. Bills at Chiefs (49.0)

3. Titans at Dolphins (46.0)

4. Seahawks at 49ers (45.5)

5. Broncos at Chargers (45.0)

6. Lions at Bears (44.5)

7. Colts at Bengals (44.0)

  

Lowest Game Totals

11. Panthers at Saints (39.0)

t-12. Jaguars at Browns (37.0)

t-12. Packers at Giants (37.0)

14. Texans at Jets (33.0)

15. Patriots at Steelers (30.5)

  

Highest Implied Points

t-1. Dolphins (29.5)

t-1. 49ers (29.5)

3. Cowboys (27.5)

4. Chiefs (25.25)

5. Ravens (24.75)

  

Lowest Implied Points

t-25. Panthers (16.5)

t-25. Titans (16.5)

27. Seahawks (16.0)

28. Giants (15.25)

29. Jets (15.0)

30. Patriots (12.5)

  

Pass Rate Over Expected + Neutral Pace

Here's where every team ranks in Pass Rate Over Expected, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and plays per game.

We’re now using just the past four weeks of Pass Rate Over Expected and neutral pace data to give us a fresher look at how these offenses are playing.

  

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game (with overtime removed):

   

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

1. Bills at Chiefs (23.4 seconds)

2. Colts at Bengals (23.4 seconds)

3. Eagles at Cowboys (25.7 seconds)

4. Texans at Jets (26.1 seconds)

5. Rams at Ravens (26.5 seconds)

  

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

11. Lions at Bears (27.1 seconds)

12. Jaguars at Browns (27.4 seconds)

13. Vikings at Raiders (28.2 seconds)

14. Titans at Dolphins (28.6 seconds)

15. Patriots at Steelers (29.2 seconds)

   

Weather Concerns

Texans at Jets

A near 100% chance of rain during this game. Winds of 10-15 mph with potential gusts of 30+. Tough conditions for the passing and kicking games. This over/under has dropped from 38.5 to 33.0. The Texans are implied for only 18.0 points.

Rams at Ravens

Similar forecast to the Texans-Jets game. 97% chance of rain with winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 30. Expect lots of running from both offenses in this one. The over/under has dropped from 45.0 to 42.0 -- although the Ravens are still implied for a solid 24.75 points.

  

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

1. 49ers vs. Seahawks (+80.6%)

2. Dolphins vs. Titans (+79.5%)

3. Packers at Giants (+65.8%)

4. Cowboys vs. Eagles (+61.1%)

5. Chiefs vs. Bills (+44.7%)

  

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

26. Panthers at Saints (-8.9%)

27. Seahawks at 49ers (-26.2%)

28. Giants vs. Packers (-28.8%)

29. Patriots at Steelers (-48.6%)

30. Jets vs. Texans (-49.0%)

  

5 Best QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Dak Prescott vs. Eagles (+33.4%)

2. Russell Wilson at Chargers (+26.9%)

3. Justin Fields vs. Lions (+20.6%)

4. Zach Wilson vs. Texans (+19.6%)

5. Joe Flacco vs. Jaguars (+17.5%)

  

5 Worst QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Geno Smith at 49ers (-23.3%)

27. Jameis Winston vs. Panthers (-25.3%)

28. Mitchell Trubisky vs. Patriots (-25.4%)

29. C.J. Stroud at Jets (-30.5%)

30. Matt Stafford at Ravens (-32.5%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Russell Wilson, Broncos

Wilson finished QB11 last week -- his fourth time finishing QB11 or QB12 in his last five games.

He's done it with passing efficiency and sneaky strong rushing production.

Wilson has completed 69.5% of his passes with eight TDs vs. three INTs over those last five games.

And he's averaged 8.0 carries, 28 rushing yards, and 0.4 rushing TDs per game. Wilson ranks fourth among QBs with 4.6 designed carries per game over that span, making that rushing production more bankable going forward.

Wilson doesn't have to worry about weather in Los Angeles this weekend and gets a Chargers defense that ranks 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Josh Dobbs, Vikings

Wilson is the safe Week 15 sneaky starter. Dobbs is the risk/reward option.

He was awful last time out and carries at least some risk of an in-game benching on Sunday.

But if he plays well enough to last the entire game, I like his chances of scoring as a top-12 fantasy QB this week.

Dobbs finished top-12 in each of his first three appearances for the Vikings, as well as three of his eight games with the Cardinals.

He's averaged 33 rushing yards and 0.5 TDs per game this season, with 40+ yards in seven of 12 games.

And, of course, Dobbs gets WR Justin Jefferson added to his arsenal this weekend.

The matchup is fine against a Raiders squad sitting 18th in pass defense DVOA and 10th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

We don't need to worry about weather in this game.

And Minnesota's 21.75-point implied total is 11th highest on the week.

 

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

1. Ravens vs. Rams (+27.2%)

2. 49ers vs. Seahawks (+24.1%)

3. Bills at Chiefs (+16.0%)

4. Lions at Bears (+13.5%)

5. Colts at Bengals (+8.9%)

  

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

26. Texans at Jets (-30.0%)

27. Vikings at Raiders (-31.1%)

28. Seahawks at 49ers (-38.4%)

29. Raiders vs. Vikings (-38.5%)

30. Jets vs. Texans (-58.1%)

  

5 Best RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers vs. Broncos (+50.0%)

2. Bengals vs. Colts (+26.6%)

3. Saints vs. Panthers (+24.4%)

4. Vikings at Raiders (+16.7%)

5. Lions at Bears (+16.4%)

  

5 Worst RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Jaguars at Browns (-17.8%)

27. Eagles at Cowboys (-18.2%)

28. Raiders vs. Vikings (-18.9%)

29. Falcons vs. Buccaneers (-19.5%)

30. Cowboys vs. Eagles (-31.3%)

    

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cowboys vs. Eagles (+38.5%)

2. Dolphins vs. Titans (+21.5%)

3. Falcons vs. Buccaneers (+18.3%)

4. Broncos at Chargers (+17.5%)

5. Browns vs. Jaguars (+14.9%)

  

5 Worst WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Rams at Ravens (-15.1%)

27. Chargers vs. Broncos (-16.0%)

28. Jaguars at Browns (-16.9%)

29. Saints vs. Panthers (-20.4%)

30. Texans at Jets (-38.6%)

  

CB Matchup Upgrades

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Buccaneers CBs Carlton Davis and Zyon McCollum

Panthers WR Adam Thielen vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed vs. Giants CBs Adoree Jackson, Deonte Banks, and Cordale Flott

Steelers WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens vs. Patriots CBs J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, and Myles Bryant

  

CB Matchup Downgrades

Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed

Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Ravens CBs Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, and Arthur Maulet

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Steven Nelson, and Tavierre Thomas

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard

    

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Colts at Bengals (+33.7%)

2. Ravens vs. Rams (+25.2%)

3. Jets vs. Texans (+23.7%)

4. Bengals vs. Colts (+22.5%)

5. Lions at Bears (+17.2%)

  

5 Worst TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Packers at Giants (-26.2%)

27. Saints vs. Panthers (-26.8%)

28 Seahawks at 49ers (-27.8%)

29. Dolphins vs. Titans (-32.6%)

30. Jaguars at Browns (-43.9%)

   

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Packers at Giants (+102.7%)

2. Texans at Jets (+83.3%)

3. Lions at Bears (+66.9%)

4. Steelers vs. Patriots (+65.5%)

5. Saints vs. Panthers (+50.1%)

  

5 Worst DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Jets vs. Texans (-40.7%)

27. Broncos at Chargers (-41.0%)

28. Chiefs vs. Bills (-41.8%)

29. Eagles at Cowboys (-58.5%)

30. Seahawks at 49ers (-63.6%)

   

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Ka’imi Fairbairn at Jets (+35.4%)

2. Evan McPherson vs. Colts (+31.4%)

3. Jason Sanders vs. Titans (+30.7%)

4. Chase McLaughlin at Falcons (+28.1%)

5. Daniel Carlson vs. Vikings (+23.0%)

  

5 Worst K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Brandon Aubrey vs. Eagles (-18.8%)

27. Dustin Hopkins vs. Jaguars (-22.9%)

28. Brandon McManus at Browns (-25.7%)

29. Jake Elliott at Cowboys (-33.1%)

30. Tyler Bass at Chiefs (-38.8%)

   

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