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Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 17

By Jared Smola | Updated on Sun, 31 Dec 2023 . 1:15 PM EST

Welcome to Week 17’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 17 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 17!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Cowboys (53.5)

2. 49ers at Commanders (49.5)

3. Cardinals at Eagles (48.0)

4. Dolphins at Ravens (46.5)

5. Bengals at Chiefs (45.5)

  

Lowest Game Totals

28. Patriots at Bills (40.0)

29. Falcons at Bears (39.0)

t-30. Panthers at Jaguars (37.5)

t-30. Chargers at Broncos (37.5)

32. Jets at Browns (33.5)

  

Highest Implied Points

1. 49ers (31.75)

2. Eagles (30.5)

3. Cowboys (29.0)

4. Bills (27.25)

5. Chiefs (26.25)

   

Lowest Implied Points

28. Cardinals (17.5)

29. Chargers (17.25)

30. Panthers (17.0)

31. Jets (13.25)

32. Patriots (12.75)

   

Pass Rate Over Expected + Neutral Pace

Here's where every team ranks in Pass Rate Over Expected, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and plays per game.

We’re now using just the past four weeks of Pass Rate Over Expected and neutral pace data to give us a fresher look at how these offenses are playing.

 

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

1. Bengals at Chiefs (23.5 seconds)

2. Dolphins at Ravens (24.3 seconds)

3. Raiders at Colts (25.0 seconds)

4. Titans at Texans (25.6 seconds)

5. Falcons at Bears (25.7 seconds)

6. Chargers at Broncos (25.8 seconds)

  

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap over last four weeks)

12. Cardinals at Eagles (27.2 seconds)

13. Panthers at Jaguars (27.5 seconds)

14. Packers at Vikings (27.5 seconds)

15. Saints at Bucs (28.2 seconds)

16. Patriots at Bills (28.3 seconds)

  

Weather Concerns

Falcons at Bears

Some snow is expected for this one, with sustained winds of 10 mph and gusts up around 20. It's not ideal weather, but this was likely to be a run-heavy, low-scoring game anyway.

    

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

1. 49ers at Commanders (+97.0%)

2. Eagles vs. Cardinals (+60.2%)

3. Rams at Giants (55.7%)

4. Chiefs vs. Bengals (52.9%)

5. Cowboys vs. Lions (43.7%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

28. Colts vs. Raiders (-23.5%)

29. Browns vs. Jets (-25.7%)

30. Commanders vs. 49ers (-26.9%)

31. Patriots at Bills (-30.4%)

32. Jets at Browns (-48.5%)

  

5 Best QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Brock Purdy at Commanders (+31.9%)

2. Jarrett Stidham vs. Chargers (+28.3%)

3. Kyler Murray at Eagles (+25.4%)

4. Will Levis at Texans (+25.2%)

5. Bryce Young at Jaguars (+18.0%)

  

5 Worst QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jacoby Brissett vs. 49ers (-19.1%)

29. Trevor Lawrence vs. Panthers (-22.0%)

30. Trevor Siemian vs. Browns (-22.5%)

31. Tua Tagovailoa at Ravens (-29.3%)

32. Joe Flacco vs. Jets (-33.5%)

   

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

1. 49ers at Commanders (+44.7%)

2. Rams at Giants (+19.5%)

3. Eagles vs. Cardinals (+17.0%)

4. Cardinals at Eagles (+12.3%)

5. Broncos vs. Chargers (+4.9%)

  

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks)

28. Falcons at Bears (-39.3%)

29. Giants vs. Rams (-39.3%)

30. Commanders vs. 49ers (-40.6%)

31. Seahawks vs. Steelers (-40.8%)

32. Jets at Browns (-50.1%)

  

5 Best RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers at Broncos (+39.2%)

2. Eagles vs. Cardinals (+34.2%)

3. Raiders at Colts (+31.7%)

4. 49ers at Commanders (+25.9%)

5. Jaguars vs. Panthers (+15.9%)

  

5 Worst RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Dolphins at Ravens (-17.6%)

29. Cowboys vs. Lions (-18.9%)

30. Giants vs. Rams (-20.4%)

31. Cardinals at Eagles (-20.9%)

32. Saints at Bucs (-21.9%)

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. 49ers at Commanders (+35.8%)

2. Cardinals at Eagles (+28.2%)

3. Saints at Bucs (+25.2%)

4. Broncos vs. Chargers (+20.9%)

5. Panthers at Jaguars (+14.9%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals at Chiefs (-17.7%)

29. Jaguars vs. Panthers (-19.0%)

30. Jets at Browns (-20.5%)

31. Bears vs. Falcons (-21.0%)

32. Browns vs. Jets (-40.0%)

  

CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn vs. Packers CBs Carrington Valentine, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Cardinals CBs Antonio Hamilton and Starling Thomas

49ers WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk vs. Commanders CBs Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St. Juste, and Jartavius Martin

Rams WRs Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Demarcus Robinson vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Adoree Jackson, and Cordale Flott

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Bucs CBs Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum, and Christian Izien

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Noah Brown vs. Titans CBs Tre Avery and Sean Murphy-Bunting

Packers WRs Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs vs. Vikings CBs Josh Metellus, Akayleb Evans, and Mekhi Blackmon

 

CB Matchup Downgrades

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Ravens CBs Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, and Ronald Darby

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed

Bears WR D.J. Moore vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome

Browns WRs Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Ravens WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard

  

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs vs. Bengals (+22.4%)

2. Chargers at Broncos (+20.3%)

3. Titans at Texans (+18.6%)

4. Broncos vs. Chargers (+14.9%)

5. Raiders at Colts (+12.5%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Eagles vs. Cardinals (-16.4%)

29. Jets at Browns (-16.9%)

30. Commanders vs. 49ers (-17.4%)

31. Jaguars vs. Panthers (-24.1%)

32. Texans vs. Titans (-29.1%) 

  

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Rams at Giants (+82.1%)

2. Browns vs. Jets (+81.0%)

3. 49ers at Commanders (+57.9%)

4. Falcons at Bears (+46.1%)

5. Jaguars vs. Panthers (+44.9%)

5 Worst DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Dolphins at Ravens (-27.7%)

29. Giants vs. Rams (-37.0%)

30. Lions at Cowboys (-40.2%)

31. Patriots at Bills (-44.3%)

32. Commanders vs. 49ers (-54.7%)

  

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Ka’imi Fairbairn vs. Titans (+37.6%)

2. Daniel Carlson at Colts (+36.8%)

3. Jake Moody at Commanders (+36.0%)

4. Cairo Santos vs. Falcons (+25.7%)

5. Riley Patterson vs. Jets (+23.5%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Michael Badgley at Cowboys (-13.8%)

29. Wil Lutz vs. Chargers (-14.0%)

30. Brandon McManus vs. Panthers (-14.2%)

31. Evan McPherson at Chiefs (-29.4%)

32. Greg Zuerlein at Browns (-32.2%)

   

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

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