FFPC Superflex Dynasty Startup Draft Recap
Lou Tranquilli has top-35 finishes in the WCOFF, NFFC and FFPC Main Events. He's also won multiple high-stakes leagues at Masters Fantasy Football. Lou was part of the trio that started the FFPC.
Here's Lou's recap of a recently completed FFPC Superflex dynasty startup draft.
Build a team of younger veteran players that have proven they can play in the NFL and still have what appears to be 3-5 years of play left. Avoid the veteran “win now” as much as possible — even if it means the “look” of the team is less than other owners. Retain a 1st round pick with an eye towards trading it in season if I have a shot or trading for more 1’s if the team crashes and burns in 2022.
Be dynamic at the QB spot.Find a 3rd QB that can last a few years bouncing around. At a minimum I see the following as open spots moving into 2023: Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit, Houston, Seattle, Tampa, Tennessee and Washington. Sleeper teams before drafting I looked at: NY Giants, NY Jets, Minnesota, Philadelphia, New Orleans.
This made the choice of a young veteran QB a priority, but not early in the draft. Some of the guys to be selected in this start up draft will fill some of the roles in each city as place holders for 2023 rookies.
Deal with the RBs
I just don’t see the long-term benefit of trying to get a workhorse when the jobs become more and more split each year. With the 17-game schedule and possibility of an 18-game schedule, the attrition rate could get even worse and life span even shorter.
Be stacked at WR
With the flex spot open to the WR, the ability to Superflex another and the longevity of the position, this position is really the focus of my team build.
Be excellent here and at QB because each will theoretically last a long time in the NFL.
Be better than average week to week at TE and don’t look to make it the flex spot. TEs get 1.5 PPR at the FFPC. I wanted to “win weeks” rather than go stud TE that in my opinion and review of ADP would cost me at QB or WR. I decided to make this a young TE/veteran TE combo before the draft and just see who fell to a spot I liked. My goal is to be solid here, because I am playing it as a “one” spot.
Kicker and D
I do believe this is a differentiator for managers and I wanted 2 with late bye weeks in 2022 that have solid basis for being near the top of their positions. This is a victory points league, which is basically head-to-head. My thought was trying to win the head-to-head each week in 2 strange spots of Kicker and D/ST.
Get into the top 10 rounds with as many selections as possible. Select at least one extra player in the draft if possible.
Trades I made:
Traded away: 2023 1st and 2023 4th, 2022 5.12, 2022 6.01, 2022 8.01 and 2022 14.01
Received: 2023 1st (likely a worse selection than mine), 2023 second, 2022 6.02, 2022 6.03, 2022 8.03, 2022 10.03
Traded away: 2022 10.01 and 2023 2nd
Received: 2022 9.11
Traded away: 2022 9.11 and 2023 3rd
Received: 2022 8.10
Traded away: 2022 13.12 and 2023 3rd
Received: 2022 12.03
Traded away: 2022 16.01, 2022 17.03 and 2023 5th
Received: 2022 16.12, 2022 17.01 and 2023 4th
Traded away: 2023 3rd
Received: 2022 20.10 and 2023 4th
With all the trading I ended with 21 selections in 2022 and 1st round (likely 9 down to 12 pick), 2 x’s 2023 4th round picks, 2023 6th and 7th round
The numbers on the right side below each player on the grid represent the position drafted. ex. Michael Pittman was WR12. So, the color should be the giveaway of what position you are viewing.
My first pick was 12. I was committed to 2 QBs and decided the risk of Deshaun Watson being suspended for the year was one I would take. I had committed to the young, proven veterans throughout the draft. This was prior to writing this piece and he is now in suspension limbo of appeal.
1.12: Trevor Lawrence
I went Lawrence over Watson here, simply using the clock to get as much information as possible. I decided to take the full eight hours allotted for each pick. I wanted to wait and see if a decision about Deshaun came down. Obviously, that didn’t happen while the draft was going on. We wouldn’t hear about Deshaun for another 10 days from the start of the draft.
2.01: Deshaun Watson
I took my time and then made the decision to risk a long suspension.
The debate: I debated Russell Wilson and going against my decision for young veterans. Russell isn’t old, but I also believe the 6+ year difference and possibility of Deshaun playing was worth it. My hope, and that’s all it was as I made the selection, was for a resolution of the Watson case during the early rounds of the draft. I could have then selected a third QB earlier than planned if needed.
3.12: DJ Moore
As I wrote in the above goals statement, I wanted to build the team around WRs. Moore has been QB proof, and with any competent play from one of the guys in Carolina (and it wasn’t Baker there when I made this pick) he gets an upgrade and maybe catches 6-8 TDs.
4.01: Michael Pittman
This makes two WRs I really, really like as long term (5-6 year) players. I don’t mean just as alpha’s but as WRs in general. Pittman is good, and he proved as much last year with Carson Wentz throwing.
The debate: DK Metcalf and a QB (Cousins or Rodgers). I could be completely wrong having passed on a third QB of stud like potential (short term) in both Cousins and Rodgers. The real debate was DK Metcalf. I just do not think he is as good as the two WRs I selected. Yes, he’s more of a physical marvel, but from a technical standpoint, I decided to lean with what I believe (based on others’ opinions) are the better football players. I also think there is a chance Moore and Pittman have QBs that will be with them for two seasons.
I had no 5th round pick due to a trade. Keep in mind my goal of at least 11 players in the first 10 rounds.
6.02: J.K. Dobbins
This went against the idea of WRs. However, I could not resist a young RB on a run-focused offense. This puts me in “hero RB” territory with the option to select a very solid #2 RB for the roster. I just could not resist the chance to get a 225-touch RB that has one year of play on his body. Of course, there is the injury to be concerned with.
6.03: Terry McLaurin
He gets me back to the stud WRs I am looking for. He also fits into the Moore, Pittman mold of being better than his QBs to date. He inherits Pittman’s old QB and that worked out alright.
My WRs could all use a QB upgrade. Yet, I am happy to have three alphas and a very good-looking RB.
The debate: There were a few. Pass on Dobbins for Kirk Cousins. I thought this through and did not see the merit. Cousins is going to be good this year, but if he moves in 2023, all bets are off. I did not need the annoyance with myself of wishing I had Dobbins next year. Cousins is a 2–3-year QB, if that is the case then I could look at other QBs later I believe have that same window.
This pick will stick with me. I could have taken a “sure” QB because I had selected Watson, and the risk associated. Getting Cousins would have been a good pick. While writing this, it’s as if I am still talking to myself about it.
Treylon Burks over Dobbins (there was no McLaurin debate). Burks looks like the alpha in Tennessee. But I think he would have made four WRs with QB issues for 2023.
Dalton Shultz was also considered, but I just could not do it. I think there is a chance another TE starts in Dallas next year.
Trades: There were so many offers, it would take ten paragraphs to list them. This was a hot couple of picks, especially for teams that waited on QBs.
7.12: Chris Olave. It looks like I am going to be 4-for-4 as it applies to the WRs having QB issues. I was committed to this choice being a WR. I believe in “finishing” a position. If I wanted WR to be a strength, then it was going to be one. And, with the other young WRs, this looked like a luxury pick I could make, with a couple of more target guys to add to the mix at WR.
8.03: Chris Godwin
This was again a risk I was willing to take. I have several teams with Courtland Sutton, and I know what I am in for in 2023 as it applies to Godwin, about 10 weeks of not being so good/explosive. Playing for the long term, I think the four WRs already here are good enough to carry me. Godwin can be a difference maker week to week when healthy, as he has already shown the football world.
And, he is a fifth WR with some QB questions in 2023. I really didn’t mean for that to be the case.
The debate: Another couple of picks with plenty to think about. I could have selected Sutton, but I decided I did not want so many shares of him across my dynasty teams. I have been there and done that, diversifying is a real thing. A TE would have looked good on paper here and made me all kinds of draft warm inside.
I would “have my team,” but as soon as I decided on Watson at QB over Wilson, risk was just on.
The final player I debated is one I am high on as a rookie, which worked out well…
8.10: James Cook
Dalvin Cook’s little brother is high on my list of must-draft players. He comes from a great college program of RBs into a great spot in the NFL. He was going to be the 8.03, but I wanted Godwin as a fifth WR more than the #2-3-year RB. It worked out for me as he made it to this spot. James Connor went in front of me, and I was happy to see that in the moment.
The debate: None, this was easy. And if Cook had been selected, I likely would have traded out of the spot and gone hero RB with Dobbins and a bunch of pass catchers.
9.12: Mike Gesicki
My TE target the entire draft, I looked over the ADP available on FFPC SuperFlex drafts and had Gesicki picked out for around this spot for 2 reasons. He has a chance to be very good in this offense for the 2022 season and he is likely someone else’s TE in 2023. Someplace like Kansas City, Dallas or the Los Angeles Chargers. All locations that would be very attractive for a young TE entering his best football years. If I am wrong, I planned to pick a TE that will be productive enough to allow me to compete this year. Evan Engram or David Njoku were later round draft targets to pair with Gesicki.
10.01: Kareem Hunt
I may be nuts, but I have him on almost all FF dynasty rosters. The guy led the league in rushing in KC years ago and all he does week after week is produce when on the field. He’s just a damn good football player.In my opinion he’s a 2-3 year RB. Because of the role he has played, he just isn’t worn out at 27 years old. He goes against staying young veteran, I have just managed him on several good teams and think he makes a fine 3rd RB here.
The debate: Both picks were up for debate.As much as I wanted Gesicki, I also look at him as a BIG IF player. Meaning if I miss, it will be a real pain in the ass, should I not get a TE I was targeting to be this year’s starter and possibly a connection with my QBs. On the board were Amari Cooper (Deshaun connection), Rhamondre Stevenson and Irv Smith. All could end up better 2022 picks than I made.
I also considered at 10.01 Matt Ryan, but I still had a QB I believed would be around a while and allow me enough production and the 2-3 year starting potential to add in case of Deshaun being gone for 2022.
11.12: Baker Mayfield
Unbelievably, I am thrilled to get him. This pick was made after Baker was shipped to Carolina. And I believe shipped off to be the starter. I was at Giants stadium last year to see Sam Darnold quarterback the Panthers vs. the Giants. Not pretty.
I think Baker could be here a couple of years with just respectable play in 2022. I would love to be able to keep all three QBs in place for the next few seasons. All are under 30 and 2 of them have connections on my roster already.
QBs started going at this point and I did not want anything to do with Wentz, who I think along with Goff represent the final possible selections. They both went after Baker.
12.01: Chase Claypool
He fits a bill with the Mike Gesicki thinking.If the Steelers are really done with him in a year or two, he has the potential to be an alpha on someone’s roster in the NFL. I am hopeful he shows the maturity this year he reportedly needs. Which is what led me to some debate of Chase or Chase…
The debate: I like Chase Edmonds in Miami this year.They signed him first, for the most money and he has excelled in the zone blocking concepts in the past. I also debated taking Zach Ertz and Christian Kirk, the latter being another stack player for my QB.I just believe talent rises and Claypool to me was the youngest, most talented player. He also becomes a nice trade chip down the road with a decent 2022 performance.
I didn’t really debate Mayfield; I think he got a raw deal in Cleveland. The guy beat the Steelers IN THE PLAYOFFS, IN PITTSBURGH. He played hurt last year, and two years ago the Browns would have told you we have our QB for a decade. I like his chances of being a better than solid QB for a while.
15.12: J.D. McKissic
My first pure “this isn’t a very good pick, upon review” moment. He’s not valuable enough from a head to head standpoint. There were other players I was hoping would make it, specifically Tyler Lockett and Ronald Jones. They went successively just before my selection. That sucked and I did settle for J.D. This could qualify as a “tilt” pick. Not good enough.
The Debate: This was a LONG wait, having traded draft capital to go up into the first 10 rounds. I am still debating the value of having done so. It really will come down to how correct I am about Gesicki and Kareem Hunt. That feels a little “ungood.” I debated Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper (yuk) and even Sony Michel. In the end, Kenyon Drake, Jamaal Williams and Jerrick McKinnon would have all made more sense even later in the draft.
16.12: Sony Michel
Admittedly, and perhaps you think I’m nuts, this is exactly who I was hoping would get this far on the board. I mentioned I like Chase Edmonds. But I do not like Raheem Mostert and his “I can’t stay on the field long” method of “playing” football. That leaves Michel, who I think has a nice role on this team all year that allows me to start him often.
This pick makes the J.D. McKissic choice even worse in my opinion. I could have gone WR at 15.12 and selected a good one like Nico Collins or the camp hero in Green Bay, Romeo Doubs.
17.01: Trey Sermon
Another pick I wanted to make, and you could think it was nuts of me. But recall I went thin at RB really with the primary backs being Dobbins, Cook and Hunt. So, I need to find some RBs that could not only start but dominate touches. I think Michel and Sermon, with opportunity of some kind showing up, can both be low cost, productive RBs.
Note about the format: I made these RB picks knowing we can only hold sixteen players on the roster in the offseason. If I am correct and they play well, I end up with 2022 value. If I am correct twice, they end up with plenty of value and help me recover some picks for 2023. If I am wrong, I cut them and move on with the three primary RBs and regroup.
The Debate: Odell Beckham, Hayden Hurst and Jarvis Landry were all considered. I did not and do not believe any of the three make an impact that helps the roster in 2022. So, I decided to speculate on two RBs, one (Sermon) of which was a 1st round rookie RB in 2022 Dynasty start up drafts.
Not much to debate.
18.01 Chris Evans. This was a fast selection.He is a “stubbed toe” (one of my personal terms for someone getting injured at RB) away from being VERY valuable in a high-powered offense with an improved offensive line. I am happy with all the low-end RBs I am collecting — they mostly fit the stubbed toe theory.
19.12 Ryan Succup
I will not spend much time here. Brady, good offense, he has a Week 11 bye. I hope to not think about the position before then.
20.01 D’Ernest Johnson
In the end, he is really my “extra” player, and I wanted to leave the draft with him. But there were a couple of other players I also really wanted to leave with. And as you know, you can’t draft all of them.
The debate. K.J. Osborn, Van Jefferson, Parris Campbell, Donovan Peoples Jones. This will sting a bit if Campbell pulls it together and becomes dependable. I avoided the news of Van Jefferson, he was hurt after this draft, hopefully he is back by Week 1. DPJ was a debate, but I have enough riding on the Browns, and that can’t be good. They are still the Browns.
I am glad to get D’Ernest.No doubt he can be an NFL team’s starter before 2022 is over.
20.10 Packers D/ST
The Packers infused the D with more talent in the NFL draft. They have a Week 14 bye.
My final assessment
This is a playoff team, and that is good by me. It takes some luck to win a league and the only way to get that luck is to make the playoffs.
The strengths are the QBs with Lawrence and Watson (even if it takes a year). In the FFPC, we are only able to select 3 QBs in the startup draft of a Superflex.I could have maximized this with another sure QB over Baker.
The WRs are a strength as well, not sure there is much to add to that.
The TEs will be a curious watch for me. I selected Ertz for 2022 … I can’t wait to see what happens with Gesicki.
RB will be a challenge; I will have to work the waiver wire HARD when someone comes off it as a starter.
Is it the best team in the league? I don’t think so, but I do think it is set up for the best short/long term consistency of being a contender. A few shrewd moves push it over the top.