How Much Fantasy Value Does Davante Adams Lose Going from Green Bay to Vegas?

By Jared Smola 8:26am EDT 6/6/22

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Davante Adams

What You Need to Know:

• Adams was traded from the Packers to the Raiders in March in exchange for 2022 1st- and 2nd-round picks.
• Vegas immediately signed Adams to a 5-year, $140 million contract with $65.7 million guaranteed. He’s the league’s 2nd-highest-paid WR in terms of average annual salary, behind only Tyreek Hill.
• Adams remained as dominant as ever last season, setting career highs with 123 catches and 1,553 yards and scoring 11 times.
• Here’s where he ranked in some key metrics among 90 WRs with 50+ targets:
  • 17th in yards per target
  • 3rd in yards per route run
  • 2nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 14th in Football Outsiders DVOA
• Adams leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs over the last 4 seasons – despite missing 7 games.
• His finishes in half-PPR points per game:
  • 2018 - 1st
  • 2019 - 5th
  • 2020 - 1st
  • 2021 - 3rd
• Adams gets a QB downgrade going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.
• But Carr is no slouch.
  • He’s coming off a 4,804-yard season on a 68.4% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt. Those marks ranked 5th, 5th and 7th league-wide.
  • He ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus’ 2021 passing grades. (Rodgers ranked 3rd.)
  • Among 30 QBs with 1,000+ attempts over the past 4 seasons, Carr ranks:
    • 2nd in completion rate
    • 13th in yards per attempt
    • 13th in adjusted yards per attempt
    • 14th in QB Rating
• Adams played 2 seasons with Carr at Fresno State, racking up 3,031 yards and 38 TDs on 233 receptions.
• Adams faces tougher target competition in Vegas than he did for the past 4 years in Green Bay.
  • Hunter Renfrow is coming off a 128-target, 103-catch 2021 season. He ranked 16th among 90 qualifying WRs in PFF receiving grade.
  • Darren Waller missed 6 games and most of a 7th last year. But he averaged 9.1 targets in his 11 healthy outings (including playoffs). Waller averaged 8.2 targets per game across the previous 2 seasons.
• The Raiders have a new coaching staff led by HC Josh McDaniels.
  • McDaniels has 14 seasons of OC experience, 13 of which came under HC Bill Belichick in New England. He also had a 1-year stint with the Rams.
  • McDaniels spent close to 2 seasons as Broncos HC, getting fired 12 games into his 2nd campaign.
    • Those Denver teams ranked 15th and 9th in situation-neutral pass rate and 9th and 7th in pass attempts, despite being quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow
• We’re projecting the 2022 Raiders to finish among the top 10 in pass rate.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Adams has a new offense to learn and tougher target competition in Vegas than he’s had recently in Green Bay.

But he’s familiar with QB Derek Carr from their 2 years together in college, remained elite last year and is getting paid like an alpha WR.

While we’re projecting his volume and production to decline a bit from last season, Adams still looks like a locked-in WR1 with top 5 upside in Vegas.