How Much Fantasy Value Does Davante Adams Lose Going from Green Bay to Vegas?
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Davante Adams
What You Need to Know:
Adams was traded from the Packers to the Raiders in March in exchange for 2022 1st- and 2nd-round picks.
Vegas immediately signed Adams to a 5-year, $140 million contract with $65.7 million guaranteed. He’s the league’s 2nd-highest-paid WR in terms of average annual salary, behind only Tyreek Hill.
Adams remained as dominant as ever last season, setting career highs with 123 catches and 1,553 yards and scoring 11 times.
Here’s where he ranked in some key metrics among 90 WRs with 50+ targets:
17th in yards per target
3rd in yards per route run
2nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
14th in Football Outsiders DVOA
Adams leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs over the last 4 seasons – despite missing 7 games.
His finishes in half-PPR points per game:
2018 - 1st
2019 - 5th
2020 - 1st
2021 - 3rd
Adams gets a QB downgrade going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr.
But Carr is no slouch.
He’s coming off a 4,804-yard season on a 68.4% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt. Those marks ranked 5th, 5th and 7th league-wide.
He ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus’ 2021 passing grades. (Rodgers ranked 3rd.)
Among 30 QBs with 1,000+ attempts over the past 4 seasons, Carr ranks:
2nd in completion rate
13th in yards per attempt
13th in adjusted yards per attempt
14th in QB Rating
Adams played 2 seasons with Carr at Fresno State, racking up 3,031 yards and 38 TDs on 233 receptions.
Adams faces tougher target competition in Vegas than he did for the past 4 years in Green Bay.
Hunter Renfrow is coming off a 128-target, 103-catch 2021 season. He ranked 16th among 90 qualifying WRs in PFF receiving grade.
Darren Waller missed 6 games and most of a 7th last year. But he averaged 9.1 targets in his 11 healthy outings (including playoffs). Waller averaged 8.2 targets per game across the previous 2 seasons.
The Raiders have a new coaching staff led by HC Josh McDaniels.
McDaniels has 14 seasons of OC experience, 13 of which came under HC Bill Belichick in New England. He also had a 1-year stint with the Rams.
McDaniels spent close to 2 seasons as Broncos HC, getting fired 12 games into his 2nd campaign.
Those Denver teams ranked 15th and 9th in situation-neutral pass rate and 9th and 7th in pass attempts, despite being quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow
We’re projecting the 2022 Raiders to finish among the top 10 in pass rate.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Adams has a new offense to learn and tougher target competition in Vegas than he’s had recently in Green Bay.
But he’s familiar with QB Derek Carr from their 2 years together in college, remained elite last year and is getting paid like an alpha WR.