Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 5 Usage
What Week 5 Usage Really Told Us
Box scores lie. Usage tells the truth.
We dug into the playing time, routes, carries, and targets behind the fantasy points to identify the biggest buy-low opportunities, sell-high candidates, and rankings movers.
Here are the 8 biggest fantasy takeaways from Week 5 usage.
1. Is Chase Brown Losing the Bengals’ Backfield?
| Weeks 1-4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap Rate | 73.5% | 60.0% |
| Route Rate | 55.0% | 67.6% |
| Carry Share | 69.9% | 44.8% |
| Target Share | 14.0% | 12.9% |
Chase Brown entered Week 5 ranked among the top 8 RBs in snap rate, route rate, carry share, and target share. But he posted season lows in both snap rate and carry share in the win over Miami.
A second-quarter fumble at the Dolphins’ 10-yard line didn’t help, but Brown was already losing more work than usual to Samaje Perine. Prior to the fumble, carries went just 6-4 in Brown’s favor.
Brown got 3 of the Bengals’ first 4 carries but totaled just 6 yards. Perine’s first 3 carries went for 19 yards, and his next touch was a 6-yard receiving score.
Perine simply looked like the better RB in this game, and the Bengals responded by giving him more work. I’d expect Brown to open Cincinnati’s next game (after a Week 6 bye) as the lead back. But the fact that the team is willing to go away from him is concerning -- especially considering Brown has not been very good this season.
Among 53 RBs with 25+ carries, he ranks:
- 42nd in yards per carry
- 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt
- 25th in yards after contact per attempt
- 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 31st in success rate
- 31st in explosive run rate
Luckily for Brown, Perine isn’t very good either. He trails Brown in three of the six categories above.
But OC Dan Pitcher suggested after the win over Miami that this could remain a hot-hand situation going forward.
“I think we’ll continually assess how that touch share between [Perine] and Chase Brown should play out,” Pitcher said. “Every game’s different. What type of scheme we lean into is going to factor into that. Obviously, what we ran more of yesterday leans into what Samaje does well, which is get downhill and run through contact.”
HC Zac Taylor, meanwhile, said that the team has “two great backs.”
Fantasy impact
The bull case for Brown has always been strong volume in a good offense. That volume is now at risk. I’d still bet on Brown maintaining the lead role for the rest of the season, but his weekly floor is lower now that we’ve seen the Bengals move away from him. Brown is sellable for a RB1-level return. I’d hold for anything less than that. His pass-catching role and the strength of Cincinnati’s offense support a RB2-level floor.
2. Another Mea Culpa on Bucky Irving
| Snaps Inside the 10 | Opportunities Inside the 10 | |
| Week 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Week 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Week 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Week 4 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
| Week 5 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
I can’t nail down Bucky Irving’s role. Quick recap:
- I wrote about his strong role after Week 2. He proceeded to post his two lowest snap and route rates of the season the following two games.
- Then after Week 4, I highlighted Irving’s declining playing time and lack of action near the goal line.
Irving’s playing time didn’t grow in Week 5. But he carried a season-high 21 times in the win over Dallas. And, most importantly, he controlled work near the goal line. Irving got 4 carries and 1 target inside the Cowboys’ 10, converting a 5-yard receiving TD and a 1-yard rushing TD.
The lone opportunity Irving didn’t get inside the 10 was a Sean Tucker carry from the 1, so that risk still exists. Tucker failed to convert that chance, though, which could push more opportunities to Irving.
Fantasy impact
Tucker remains a potential goal-line vulture. But if Irving gets at least most of the work near the opponent’s end zone, he’ll carry a much higher weekly ceiling. Treat him as a low-end RB2 until QB Baker Mayfield returns. Irving could climb higher than that if Mayfield gets the offense back on track.
3. Where Did Dalton Kincaid Go?
| Route Rate | Target Share | |
| Week 1 | 64.9% | 21.4% |
| Week 2 | 66.7% | 28.6% |
| Week 3 | 69.7% | 11.5% |
| Week 4 | 60.0% | 6.7% |
| Week 5 | 75.8% | 11.1% |
Dalton Kincaid came ripping out of the gates, with TE5 and TE3 fantasy finishes. In the three games since? TE33, TE51, TE48.
WTF happened?
Kincaid’s route rate is actually up a tick over the last three weeks vs. the first two, thanks largely to a season-high 75.8% in Monday night’s shootout win over the Rams.
The problem is the targets have dried up, from a 23.3% share across Weeks 1 and 2 to 9.0% over the last three.
Kincaid drew a target on 30% of his routes over those first two games. That’s plummeted to 13% over the last three.
Kincaid’s targets per route will probably settle somewhere in between those two marks going forward. But based on his resume coming into this season, I’d bet on it finishing closer to 30% than 13%. Here were Kincaid’s targets-per-route rates over his first three NFL seasons:
- 2023: 21%
- 2024: 29%
- 2025: 27%
Fantasy impact
Kincaid’s playing time remains stronger than it was the previous two seasons. His targets per route are way down the last three weeks, but that feels like mostly small-sample noise. I’d still bet on Kincaid scoring as a TE1 going forward, even if the production is volatile from game to game, and would be willing to buy him for anything cheaper than a top-12 TE price.
4. Bhayshul Tuten Still Trending Up
| Snap Rate | Route Rate | Carry Share | Target Share | |
| Week 1 | 49.1% | 32.0% | 46.9% | 4.8% |
| Week 2 | 50.8% | 38.9% | 54.2% | 7.1% |
| Week 3 | 48.4% | 27.3% | 50.0% | 7.4% |
| Week 4 | 59.0% | 45.5% | 63.0% | 8.7% |
| Week 5 | 68.1% | 47.8% | 81.5% | 7.9% |
We're running this note back from last week for a couple of reasons:
- Bhayshul Tuten posted season highs in snap rate, route rate, and carry share in Week 5 for the second straight game.
- He didn't post a big fantasy day.
That positions him as an even better buy-low than he was last week.
Tuten finished second league-wide in carry share last week. He also ranked top-16 in both snap rate and route rate. He even played 56% of Jacksonville's snaps inside the Eagles' 10-yard line, up from 35% over the first four games.
Tuten finished RB9 in expected PPR points per game in Week 5. Yet his 11.6 PPR points ranked just 22nd.
Blame a tough matchup against the Eagles, who now rank 10th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. In fact, Tuten has drawn just one positive matchup through five weeks. His overall strength of schedule has been sixth-toughest.
Tuten gets another difficult draw in Week 6 against Houston's fifth-ranked RB defense, followed by a Week 7 bye. But from Week 8 through Week 17, the Jaguars get the 11th-easiest RB schedule.
Fantasy impact
Tuten's usage has climbed to fringe RB1-level. The production didn't match the opportunity against a tough Eagles defense. But that just makes Tuten a prime trade target sometime between now and Week 8, when his schedule finally lightens up.
5. Germie Bernard is Aaron Rodgers’ New BFF
| Week 5 | Rank Among WRs |
| Route Rate | fourth |
| Target Share | 12th |
| Air-Yards Share | 12th |
| Expected PPR Points | 20th |
| Actual PPR Points | 21st |
Chemistry might matter more with Aaron Rodgers than with any other QB. Get on his bad side and you’re in witness protection. Make friends and you’re squarely on the fantasy radar.
Germie Bernard seemingly won his QB over by acing the Rodgers IQ test last Friday.
Aaron Rodgers had an extensive quiz this week for Germie Bernard. Bernard said he asked about coverages in each situation the Colts like to run by down and distance and area of the field, their players and what their tendencies are by personnel grouping, how to run specific routes vs. different coverages, hand signals, and much more. It sounds like Bernard passed those tests from Rodgers will flying colors. QBs coach Tom Arth says it's not common for a rookie to earn that trust, but that has come along between Bernard and Rodgers. "The QBs came into one of our meetings this week and were just going on and on about how Germ knows the plan. They said he could call the plays just like a quarterback would."
— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) October 9, 2026
Bernard stepped into a full-time role vs. the Colts and led the Steelers with 9 targets, delivering a 6-80-0 line.
The rookie benefited from WR Michael Pittman Jr.’s absence. WR Roman Wilson also exited just before halftime with a hand injury.
Wilson is expected to miss multiple weeks, and Pittman is out at least three more games. We’ll see what the WR corps looks like if it gets fully healthy. But Pittman was struggling before landing on IR, catching just seven passes in three games.
The Steelers spent the 47th pick of this spring’s draft on Bernard. If he stays on Rodgers’ good side, he could certainly stay ahead of Pittman the rest of the season.
And this is a sneaky-good spot for WR production. Rodgers is playing well enough, and the Steelers rank top 6 in pass rate, pass rate over expected, and pass attempts.
Fantasy impact
Bernard is already up to 36th in our Week 6 WR rankings and figures to stay in that range at least until Pittman is healthy. There’s a chance he’s at least a WR3-level producer for the rest of the season.
6. Isaiah Likely is a Top-5 Fantasy TE
| Season | Rank Among TEs |
| Route Rate | fifth |
| Target Share | first |
| Targets | second |
| Air-Yards Share | second |
| Air Yards | first |
| Expected PPR Points | second |
| Actual PPR Points | second |
Isaiah Likely’s massive Week 5 wasn’t a surprise if you were paying attention to his usage.
He entered the week among the top 4 TEs in every major usage metric. He left it top 2 in every metric other than route rate, behind only Trey McBride.
Likely’s usage has gotten even better with QB Jameis Winston starting the past two weeks. Over that span, he leads all TEs in:
- targets (25)
- target share (30.1%)
- expected PPR points (38.4)
- actual PPR points (46.0)
Likely benefited from 84 offensive snaps and 54 pass attempts in the Week 5 OT tie. The Giants want to be a run-leaning offense (24th in pass rate over expected), and there’s still a chance we see QB J.J. McCarthy this year, which would probably be bad for Likely’s fantasy production.
But he looks like a top-5 fantasy TE for now.
Fantasy impact
Likely is getting elite usage and good-enough QB play from Winston. It’s too late to buy, but he’s a solid hold as a top-5 fantasy TE. If Winston starts to struggle, opening the door for McCarthy, Likely could become a sell-high.
7. J.K. Dobbins Takes Control of Broncos Backfield (for Now)
| J.K. Dobbins | RJ Harvey | Tyler Badie | |
| Snap Rate | 51.6% | 37.1% | 11.3% |
| Route Rate | 14.7% | 44.1% | 8.8% |
| Carry Share | 62.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% |
| Target Share | 9.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
Sean Payton taking back play-calling duties helped only one guy. J.K. Dobbins recorded his highest snap rate, second-biggest carry share, and highest target share of the season in the Week 5 win over the Chargers.
His 16.0 expected PPR points ranked 13th among RBs.
Dobbins scored 15.4 PPR points, though, and has scored under expectation in all five games this season. He’s been one of the league’s worst runners. Among 53 RBs with 25+ carries, Dobbins ranks:
- 47th in rush yards over expected per attempt
- 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 28th in yards after contact per attempt
- 36th in explosive run rate
- 38th in success rate
Denver might not have a better option in the short term. RJ Harvey hasn’t been significantly better than Dobbins in any of those metrics, and Tyler Badie has 25 career carries.
But Jonah Coleman is expected to come off IR for Week 7. The rookie had a buzzy offseason and a nice Week 2 before suffering a high-ankle sprain. He could quickly steal work from Dobbins and eventually take over as lead back.
Fantasy impact
Needy fantasy owners can use Dobbins as a volume-based starter vs. the Seahawks this week. But try to sell him to the highest bidder this week or next, ahead of Coleman’s return.
8. Carnell Tate’s Back Injury Presents a Buying Opportunity
| Route Rate | Target Share | |
| Week 1 | 92.5% | 21.4% |
| Week 2 | 84.0% | 29.4% |
| Week 3 | 97.4% | 25.7% |
| Week 4 | 90.2% | 42.9% |
| Week 5 | 76.1% | 14.3% |
From a usage perspective, Week 5 looks like a clear outlier for Carnell Tate. Yes, he faced a talented Texans secondary. But I’m betting the bigger factor was the back injury that landed Tate on the injury report last Thursday and had him questionable coming in.
Prior to Week 5, Tate ranked:
- 22nd among WRs in route rate
- eighth in target share
- 11th in targets
- 30th in expected PPR points per game
- 28th in actual PPR points per game
Fantasy impact
A crappy offense and crappy QB play might prevent Tate from climbing beyond WR3 territory. But this is a talented rookie who’s already flashed the ability to garner WR1-level volume. He could score as a top-24 WR the rest of the way and can likely be acquired for significantly cheaper than that coming off a Week 5 dud. Make a trade offer for Tate this week.
