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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 10

By Matt Schauf 8:36pm EST 11/8/23

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We might be on to something here …

Last week, I introduced the “not recommended” tag on certain picks. Why? As I’ve said, I don’t want to deprive you of potential options by adding my own bias to projections that already incorporate some bias.

But every week finds some guys that fit by the numbers … but that I also know I wouldn’t play in Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

The most accurate fantasy football projections in the industry can help you set your Pick’ems. But they’re not specifically designed for that purpose. So an extra layer of context can help.

Did ‘Not Recommended’ Work?

It was just one week, but the six picks that I included but labeled “not recommended” last week would have gone 2-4 if I left them unmarked.

Win.

And without them included, we got our best picks record of the season.

Season-to-Date Results

• Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
• Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
• Week 3: 11-10
• Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
• Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
• Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
• Week 7: 4-8
• Week 8: 7-8
• Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
• Overall: 102-114

Let’s keep it going. (And you can bet you’ll find some more “not recommended” plays below.)

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 10 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

Passing

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Draft Sharks projection: 286.2
Underdog: 246.5
Difference: 39.7

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
DS projection: 286.9
Underdog: 256.5
Difference: 30.4

Not Recommended: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
DS projection: 285.2
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: 23.7

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
DS projection: 262.3
Underdog: 244.5
Difference: 17.8

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
DS projection: 293.3
Underdog: 276.5
Difference: 16.8

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
DS projection: 228.6
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: 13.1

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 234.6
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: -10.9

Not Recommended: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
DS projection: 202.4
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: -13.1

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
DS projection: 181.3
Underdog: 205.5
Difference: -24.2

QB Total Yards

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 241.4
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 10.9

Why ‘Not’?

Jared Goff’s certainly capable of getting past that number this week, and being on the road’s not the problem (despite what you’ve heard about Goff there). He’s averaging 275.0 yards across four road contests this year, in which Detroit has gone 3-1.

Goff’s also averaging 261.2 yards per game in six victories overall. That’s already close to the market line. And this will be the first time since Week 4 that the Lions have had both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs healthy.

Throw in that they’re favored by 5.5 over the Chargers, and it’s not hard to envision a run-leaning game script.

Lamar Jackson might seem like a fairly comfy “under,” coming off two straight games of less than 190 yards passing and facing a tough Browns pass D. But he racked up 9.8 yards per attempt in the first meeting, going for 186 yards on a season-low 19 attempts.

He’s averaging 28.1 pass attempts and 217.1 yards per game for the season.

Receiving

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 43.4
Underdog: 32.5
Difference: 10.9

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DS projection: 68.5
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 10

Rushing Yards

Not Recommended: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 52.6
Underdog: 42.5
Difference: 10.1

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 40.4
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: -11.1

RB Total Yards

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 71.4
Underdog: 90.5
Difference: -19.1

Why ‘Not’?

The Bears have allowed just one RB to reach Chuba Hubbard’s Week 10 line over the past five weeks. They now sit seventh in run-defense DVOA. And they’re actually favored by 3.5 points in this game.

It’s not hard to imagine Hubbard having a tough night, with limited carries.

Week 10 Waiver Wire Help

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