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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 11

By Matt Schauf 4:34pm EST 11/16/23

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Let’s Get on a Roll

Two weeks into the “not recommended” picks, and we’ve enjoyed our two best records of the season.

Week 9 found us 15-10. Week 10 delivered an 8-4 record.

And frankly, I don’t even look back regretfully on the four misses.

Who Missed?

Here are the four incorrect plays from last week’s list:

• Will Levis over 215.5 passing yards
• Deshaun Watson under 205.5 passing yards
• Bryce Young over 230.5 total yards
• Rashid Shaheed over 32.5 receiving yards

Tell me ahead of the game that Levis is attempting 39 passes against the Bucs, and I’m pumping my first for the over 215.5.

Watson needed a perfect-passing (14 of 14) second half to beat his yardage line by 7.5 yards.

Young was probably the “worst” pick of the group. But he entered the week averaging 227.7 total yards per game and then posted one of his worst outings against the league’s No. 28 defense in DVOA.

Shaheed drew a season-high 9 targets and tied his season high with 5 receptions. Him falling short of 32.5 yards on that usage is a Saints problem

Season-to-Date Results

• Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
• Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
• Week 3: 11-10
• Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
• Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
• Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
• Week 7: 4-8
• Week 8: 7-8
• Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
• Week 10: 8-4
• Overall: 110-118

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

Enough about the past, let’s turn to the future of Week 11.

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 11 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

Passing Yards

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Draft Sharks projection: 268.5
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 23

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
DS projection: 246.4
Underdog: 229.5
Difference: 16.9

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
DS projection: 272.7
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: 18.2

Not Recommended: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
DS projection: 215.6
Underdog: 204.5
Difference: 11.1

Not Recommended: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
DS projection: 243.5
Underdog: 253.5
Difference: -10

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
DS projection: 194.1
Underdog: 209.5
Difference: -15.4

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
DS projection: 240.9
Underdog: 258.5
Difference: -17.6

Why ‘Not’?

Zach Wilson: He’s Zach Wilson. He very well might hit some more overs this year … but you have sturdier options. If you do decide to play him, you should probably include WR Garrett Wilson’s over as well.

Geno Smith: I wasn’t totally comfy playing Smith’s under at its 258.5 open. Now that it’s down 5 more yards, I’m passing. His play has been erratic, but Smith’s WRs remain excellent. There’s still boom potential, especially against an unspectacular Rams D.

Receiving Yards

Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
DS projection: 62.5
Underdog: 46.5
Difference: 16

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
DS projection: 67.7
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 15.2

Not Recommended: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
DS projection: 48.5
Underdog: 34.5
Difference: 14

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
DS projection: 31.8
Underdog: 18.5
Difference: 13.3

Why ‘Not’?

George Pickens: His projection’s OK. Pickens doesn’t need many catches to stack yards. But his QB has a market passing-yards line of just 180.5. Why take the overs on that guy’s WRs – especially the deep-ball guy who runs the lower-percentage routes?

Rushing Yards

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 74.6
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 16.1

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 84.4
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 15.9

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
DS projection: 69.6
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 13.1

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
DS projection: 69
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 12.5

Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
DS projection: 57
Underdog: 46.5
Difference: 10.5

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
DS projection: 51.6
Underdog: 41.5
Difference: 10.1

‘Not Recommended’ Results

Might as well keep track of these picks, too, to check on my choices.

In this category, a bad record is good. Because these are the guys who qualify by the projections but that I’m suggesting you don’t use in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

• Week 9: 2-4
• Week 10: 1-2
• Total: 3-6

More Week 11 Fantasy Football

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