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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 3

By Matt Schauf 2:55pm EDT 9/20/23

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Don't Wait to Jump on These Plays

I screwed up last week.

I put this article out every Wednesday, and last week’s version had 16 QB yardage overs. Ten of the 16 hit. (Another – Anthony Richardson – left early with a concussion).

But I waited too long to play any of them. By the time I went to build my Pick’em entries, nearly every QB passing line had gone up – many of them by a lot.

That might have been exacerbated by a Week 1 that was strangely bad for offensive production. Perhaps we won’t see quite so much change most weeks.

But we will continue to see plenty of stat movement.

So if you do want to play Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems, I recommend jumping on them early.

And passing-yardage plays have been the best place to look over the life of this article series.

You’ll find another 15 passing “overs” (plus one “under”) below. But before we get to that, let’s check back on our rull results so far …

Season-to-Date Results

Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
Overall: 27-36

Better. Though we obviously want to keep climbing.

(Injured guys won’t count in our results. I’m not taking the “L” because a guy got knocked out early. And I also won’t fake the “W” for an under play that gets hurt.)

Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

Last year – and even last week – I included all receiving and rushing lines that found our numbers 7+ yards either above or below the market projection.

We might go back to that in future weeks if the market tightens. But we’re getting plenty of options right now by just sticking to projections that are 10 yards above or below the market number.

So I’m stopping there this week. And serving up these 21 plays.

Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Draft Sharks projection: 253.6
Underdog: 222.5
Difference: 31.1

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
DS: 217.8
Underdog: 189.5
Difference: 28.3

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
DS: 246.8
Underdog: 219.5
Difference: 27.3

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
DS: 257.2
Underdog: 231.5
Difference: 25.7

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
DS: 294.8
Underdog: 269.5
Difference: 25.3

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 271.6
Underdog: 251.5
Difference: 20.1

Mac Jones, New England Patriots
DS: 237.4
Underdog: 217.5
Difference: 19.9

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 249.3
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 18.8

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
DS: 272.7
Underdog: 255.5
Difference: 17.2

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
DS: 240.8
Underdog: 224.5
Difference: 16.3

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
DS: 249.5
Underdog: 233.5
Difference: 16

Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
DS: 235.6
Underdog: 220.5
Difference: 15.1

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
DS: 221.9
Underdog: 207.5
Difference: 14.4

Zach Wilson, New York Jets
DS: 182.7
Underdog: 169.5
Difference: 13.2

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
DS: 306.4
Underdog: 295.5
Difference: 10.9

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DS: 278.5
Underdog: 295.5
Difference: -17

Daniel Jones’ Week 2 was a good example of why I go ahead and include plays even if I’m not trusting them. The Giants’ QB went way over his market projection for passing yards against the Cardinals.

This week’s “I’m not sure I trust it” is Lamar Jackson. I just don’t know how much the Ravens want him to throw. But he has completed 74.5% of his passes through two games. And this week brings a favorable matchup with the Colts.

It’s not comfy to be quite so far over.

But he only needs to reach 220 passing yards to beat the Underdog Fantasy early line. We’ll see if that one rises throughout the week.

And now that I’ve talked myself through that one, taking the “under” on Justin Herbert’s passing yards in a potential shootout is probably my biggest “no thanks.”

That said, we have already seen his offense go run-heavy once this year …

Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DS: 65.1
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 15.6

How many lead WRs for their NFL teams will top 100 yards one week and then find their market line this low the following week?

The Bears still sport one of the league’s worst passing offenses. But Justin Fields is averaging 33 pass attempts through two games, up from 21.2 per game last season.

The Fields-Moore correlation looks fairly attractive, especially in a game that finds them 12.5-point underdogs as of this writing.

Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 93.1
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: 13.6

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
DS: 76.4
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 11.9

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
DS: 67.2
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 11.7

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 76.7
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 11.2

Isiah Pacheco has just 20 carries through two games. But he claimed the clear backfield lead Sunday against the Jaguars. And now his team is back home as the heavy favorite against a weak Bears defense.

It doesn’t hurt that Pacheco already beat this number by 14.5 yards last week.

Travis Etienne also got just 12 carries on the other side of that Week 2 matchup, tallying a disappointing 40 yards. But now his team is a 9-point favorite against a Houston squad that just allowed 88 rushing yards to Zack Moss.

The Best Strategy to Win Your Season

Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems are fun. But if you’re like us, you’re primarily focused on winning your season. We want to help. Check out this video for some proven strategies …