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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 4

By Matt Schauf 1:37pm EDT 9/27/23

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How Many Bad QBs Can We Trust?

I’m breaking my own rule this week.

I’ve promised you that I won’t insert my own bias into the weekly plays here by selecting who gets in and who gets left out. But I guess I lied.

Because there’s a QB this week I just refuse to include.

Maybe it’s my recency bias because he made it into last week’s article and failed to hit. 

Whatever. You’ll understand when we get to the QB section. (And I even left a couple others in despite my discomfort.

Season-to-Date Results

Before we get to that, let’s quickly recap another positive step in Week 3. First, the weekly records …

• Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
• Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
• Week 3: 11-10
• Overall: 38-46

Getting into positive territory was nice, and it should have been even a little better.

Patrick Mahomes was well on his way to hitting his passing-yards “over,” but K.C. pulled him halfway through the THIRD quarter of a game that was probably over before anyone noticed Taylor Swift.

Yeah, the Bears are so bad that they’re dragging down opponent production as they sink.

The Justin Herbert “under” also counted as a miss

To be fair, though, I did call it “my biggest ‘no thanks’” on the list. And it wouldn’t even have made the article if I posted a day later.

Herbert’s line dropped 13 yards by Thursday morning.

Now let’s move on to improving further for Week 4 …

Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 4 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

Passing Yards

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft Sharks projection: 263.9
Underdog: 238.5
Difference: 25.4

Mac Jones, New England Patriots
DS: 234.8
Underdog: 209.5
Difference: 25.3

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
DS: 192
Underdog: 168.5
Difference: 23.5

Daniel Jones, New York Giants
DS: 240.7
Underdog: 217.5
Difference: 23.2

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
DS: 297.4
Underdog: 274.5
Difference: 22.9

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 250.7
Underdog: 229.5
Difference: 21.2

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
DS: 272.2
Underdog: 253.5
Difference: 18.7

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
DS: 305
Underdog: 286.5
Difference: 18.5

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
DS: 212
Underdog: 195.5
Difference: 16.5

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DS: 305.6
Underdog: 289.5
Difference: 16.1

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
DS: 247.7
Underdog: 237.5
Difference: 10.2

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
DS: 218.7
Underdog: 231.5
Difference: -12.8

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
DS: 198
Underdog: 213.5
Difference: -15.5

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
DS: 215.3
Underdog: 235.5
Difference: -20.2

Analysis

Justin Fields missed badly last week, throwing for just 99 yards at Kansas City. He attempted only 22 passes in a 31-point loss. But he did go way over this 168.5-yard line each of the first two weeks.

Not gonna lie: I’m definitely not taking the over on Fields’ passing yards this week. But he’s not the guy I refused to include.

That would be Zach Wilson. His line currently sits higher than Fields’, at 177.5. His projection in our Week 4 QB rankings sits 18.9 yards over that.

So you can feel free to play that line if you want. But I can’t, in good conscience, even appear to be advocating for a Zach Wilson over.

Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DS: 61.2
Underdog: 42.5
Difference: 18.7

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
DS: 66.3
Underdog: 53.5
Difference: 12.8

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
DS: 94.9
Underdog: 82.5
Difference: 12.4

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
DS: 82.9
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 12.4

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
DS: 66.9
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 11.4

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
DS: 61.8
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 11.3

Analysis

Keenan Allen has gone for 111 and 215 yards the past two weeks, in an offense that went from run-heavy in the opener to pass-heavy in Week 2 and then pass-heavier last Sunday.

Is the market still catching up to this version of Allen? Or is he bound for a dip? Guess we’ll see, but he feels like a fairly easy play against a soft Raiders defense.

Meanwhile, Chris Olave’s line just looks disrespectful. He has gone for 112, 86, and 104, with the last coming in a game his QB left midway through.

Pass-defense DVOA ratings say this week’s Bucs are only slightly better than the Packers Olave breezed by last week.

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
DS: 76.8
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 12.3

RB Total Yards

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 104.3
Underdog: 89.5
Difference: 14.8

James Cook, Buffalo Bills
DS: 89.4
Underdog: 77.5
Difference: 11.9

The total-yards plays on these two RBs look attractive. Each is heavily involved in both his team’s run game and pass game. So taking that over saves you from having to guess at which lane proves most productive for him in Week 4.

In general, though, note that the total-yards line is nearly always set higher than the combo of a player’s rushing line and receiving line. Just something to be aware of as you make your picks.

The Best Strategy to Win Your Season

Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems are fun. But if you’re like us, you’re primarily focused on winning your season. We want to help. Check out this video for some proven strategies …