Show Navigation
Show Menu

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 6

By Matt Schauf 8:42am EDT 10/13/23

Might This be a Strange Week?

Sorry if you’ve been looking for this article since Wednesday, when it usually arrives.

A combo of work and family factors have pushed it back. But the result is a very different set of plays than usual. 

That includes more receiving plays than just about any other week. Plenty of movers since the lines first came out.

And a whole game that I just don’t feel comfy including.

Season-to-Date Results

We got a rebound from last week’s picks, driven primarily by strong performance in receiving (7-2).

For the second straight week, I voluntarily left one out that would have been a hit. This time it was Travis Kelce under 78.5 receiving yards.

Of course, he did temporarily leave that game with an ankle sprain and wind up with 10 receptions for 67. (I’d take the yardage over 100% of the time if you told me Kelce would catch 10 balls.)

Take that for what it’s worth when we get to the guys I’m leaving out this week.

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Overall: 61-68

Now on to Week 6 …

 

Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 6 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

TIP

If you haven't played before, use this Underdog Fantasy promo code to get your first deposit matched up to $100.

 

Passing Yards

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Draft Sharks projection: 280.4
Underdog: 251.5
Difference: 28.9

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 244.3
Underdog: 217.5
Difference: 26.8

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 290.1
Underdog: 264.5
Difference: 25.6

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 299.1
Underdog: 276.5
Difference: 22.6

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
DS projection: 242.8
Underdog: 224.5
Difference: 18.3

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 233
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: 17.5

Mac Jones, New England Patriots
DS projection: 223.8
Underdog: 206.5
Difference: 17.3

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
DS projection: 255.3
Underdog: 238.5
Difference: 16.8

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 210.7
Underdog: 196.5
Difference: 14.2

Josh Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals
DS projection: 216.4
Underdog: 203.5
Difference: 12.9

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DS projection: 268.4
Underdog: 281.5
Difference: -13.1

Analysis

Niners QB Brock Purdy should also display here, by my self-imposed rules. But that game got weird late Thursday.

All the yardage lines on both sides of 49ers-Browns came way down. That makes sense for Cleveland, which looks like it’s trending toward starting QB P.J. Walker. But the San Francisco lines all dropped as well.

Here’s where the passing and receiving numbers sit at the moment:

  • Purdy 200.5 yards
  • Deebo Samuel 38.5 yards
  • Brandon Aiyuk 41.5 yards
  • George Kittle 33.5 yards

All of those sit way below both how we initially projected them and where they sat Wednesday. And Underdog Fantasy currently has boosters on 0.5 TDs for Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle – plus a booster on Purdy’s 1.5 passing TDs line.

All of that suggests Vegas doesn’t expect anything near the offensive firepower we’ve come to expect from these 49ers.

It was enough to make us adjust our expectations down some Thursday night. Even with that, you’ll still find some qualifiers from this group vs. our Week 6 rankings – as well as Browns WR Elijah Moore from the other side.

I’d rather just leave that game alone, though.

QB Total Yards

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
DS projection: 292
Underdog: 271.5
Difference: 20.5

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 311.8
Underdog: 296.5
Difference: 15.3

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
DS projection: 267
Underdog: 253.5
Difference: 13.5

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 264.1
Underdog: 252.5
Difference: 11.6

Analysis

Note that we have a larger gap between projections and market line for Fields’ passing than total yards. 

His total-yards line is higher than the combo of his passing line and rushing line – as is nearly always the case. Choosing this category would just be guarding against a more run-heavy Fields outing than we’ve been getting this season.

Interestingly, Lamar Jackson’s gap is larger in total yards than passing alone vs. our numbers. His passing line has risen during the week.

Receiving

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 104.4
Underdog: 88.5
Difference: 15.9

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 80.9
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 15.4

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 74.2
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 14.7

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 69.2
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 14.7

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 97.9
Underdog: 83.5
Difference: 14.4

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 41.6
Underdog: 28.5
Difference: 13.1

K.J. Osborn, WR, Minnesota Vikings
DS projection: 53.3
Underdog: 40.5
Difference: 12.8

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 72.1
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 12.6

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 50
Underdog: 37.5
Difference: 12.5

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 43.9
Underdog: 31.5
Difference: 12.4

Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 40.5
Underdog: 28.5
Difference: 12

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
DS projection: 67.4
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 11.9

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
DS projection: 78
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 11.5

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 64.8
Underdog: 53.5
Difference: 11.3

Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
DS projection: 41.4
Underdog: 30.5
Difference: 10.9

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
DS projection: 60.7
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 10.2

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 53.7
Underdog: 43.5
Difference: 10.2

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
DS projection: 78.6
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 10.1

Analysis

Plenty of pairing options with QB passing lines from this group. It’s interesting that we’re significantly over market on Josh Allen and his top two WRs. There’s some risk of a blowout chipping away at the overall numbers. But Buffalo is likely to lean heavily on the pass to get to that blowout scenario – if it occurs.

Rushing

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 86.6
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 18.1

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 82.4
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 12.9

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
DS projection: 60.1
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 11.6

Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
DS projection: 56.5
Underdog: 45.5
Difference: 11

RB Total Yards

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 108.7
Underdog: 93.5
Difference: 15.2

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey joined his teammates in seeing the line drop through the week. I feel comfier keeping him in the lineup here, though, than I do with the passing game. It’s a run-leaning offense against a Cleveland team that will struggle to be competitive (13.25 implied points).

You might notice that Travis Etienne presents a bigger gap in total yards than rushing vs. our numbers here. He has been dominating backfield work to the point that either play looks solid.

Zack Moss is interesting.

Underdog Fantasy has no line for Jonathan Taylor’s rushing as of this writing – but does for Moss. We’ll all likely be guessing at just how much work each gets until the game starts, and we’re assuming more for Taylor than last week.

But will Moss go from dominating Week 5 playing time to a minor role in Week 6? Doesn’t seem like the Colts would have reason to make that drastic a shift so quickly.

 

Week 6 Fantasy Football Preview

Vegas' gloomy outlook for the 49ers is far from the only interesting plotline this week. Let's look at the rest of Week 6 fantasy football, including waiver-wire help, trade targets, and much more.

Related Fantasy Football

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

3:13pm EST 1/11/24

Six games ... and a lot of difficult decisions. Let's run through an exciting DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings ahead of Wild Card Weekend.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

12:33pm EST 1/7/24

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 18 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:01pm EST 1/6/24

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 18 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

9:22am EST 1/6/24

Week 18 is always tough to predict, but there are still edges to be found. See where to turn in Week 18 FanDuel tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

5:04pm EST 1/5/24

With many key players resting, Week 18 FanDuel cash games figure to be the wild west. Let's see who's set to deliver DFS value.

Read More »
Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

10:45pm EST 12/30/23

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 17 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:41pm EST 12/30/23

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 17 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play