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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 7

By Matt Schauf 12:11pm EDT 10/18/23

Let's Tighten This Up

We’re back on the earlier schedule for this article this week. Let’s hope that powers a rebound.

Week 6 was a tough one for injuries in general, and we felt that here as well.

Not only did Justin Fields’ first-half thumb injury take him out of two categories, it effectively killed the chances for D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet going over.

Bills QB Josh Allen only left his game against the Giants for two plays in the second quarter but was clearly playing through some right-shoulder trouble thereafter.

Of course, that was a surprisingly poor night for the offense even before Allen’s brief departure.

Overall, we lost three recommended plays to injuries (Fields x2 and Christian McCaffrey). Plenty of others simply let us down – including a couple of heartbreakers:

  • Bryce Young over 217.5 passing yards
    • Final: 217 
  • Lamar Jackson over 224.5 passing yards
    • Final: 223

Season-to-Date Results

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Overall: 76-88

On to Week 7 …

 

Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

The earlier article posting this week means a lot fewer options. We’ll see whether that’s a good thing or bad. But maybe it at least helps our focus.

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 7 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

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Passing Yards

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Draft Sharks projections: 274.2
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: 32.7

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
DS: 296.2
Underdog: 269.5
Difference: 26.7

Mac Jones, New England Patriots
DS: 209.3
Underdog: 195.5
Difference: 13.8

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
DS: 296.1
Underdog: 282.5
Difference: 13.6

Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts
DS: 199.8
Underdog: 216.5
Difference: -16.7

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
DS: 236.4
Underdog: 257.5
Difference: -21.1

Analysis

Our number and the market’s are both pretty high for Tua Tagovailoa. Does Philly’s No. 2 run defense (by DVOA) alter the Dolphins’ plan to produce much more passing, like we saw in Week 1?

Maybe. If you do play Tua’s over, then you should probably pair him with either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle (and maybe one of each). They’ve combined for 47% of Miami targets so far. And that’s with Waddle missing a game.

Mac Jones remains risky – but at least he didn’t get yanked from last week’s game. It’s probably a mistake to continue including him here. It’s not like we’re betting on him with our weekly rankings. But seeing his name here obviously doesn’t mean you need to play him.

Receiving Yards

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
DS: 65.1
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 14.6

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 61.8
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 10.3

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
DS: 70.7
Underdog: 81.5
Difference: -10.8

Analysis

Interestingly, we’re right at market on Jordan Love’s passing yards but significantly over on Christian Watson. Don’t be surprised if Watson’s number rises during the week in a positive matchup.

For Christian Kirk's line, it's worth noting the market had no line for Trevor Lawrence as of this writing. That uncertainty (surrounding his knee injury) obviously adds risk to Jaguars pass catchers.

I never feel great about including a Travis Kelce under, but last week’s Denver matchup is the only time this year he has exceeded 69 yards receiving.

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
DS: 85.7
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 15.2

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
DS: 67.3
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 10.8

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
DS: 75.6
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 10.1

Analysis

Brian Robinson’s workload will probably depend on game script. Last week marked just the third win of the season for Washington. He carried 10 times in that victory, perhaps driven by lackluster efficiency against an Atlanta run D that has played well.

Robinson logged 19 and 18 carries in the previous two wins.

D’Andre Swift’s yardage totals have looked like this since Week 2:

  • 175
  • 130
  • 56
  • 70
  • 18

Ken Walker is averaging just 69.0 rushing yards per game for the season, but I’ll be surprised if his line doesn’t rise in a matchup that finds Seattle a 7.5-point favorite already.

 

The Best Strategy to Win Your Season

Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems are fun. But if you’re like us, you’re primarily focused on winning your season. We want to help. Check out this video for some proven strategies … 

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