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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 8

By Matt Schauf 5:13pm EDT 10/25/23

Time to Get Comfy with Discomforting QBs?

Is it time to buy into Mac Jones?

(At least vs. his passing-yards line?)

Desmond Ridder? Bryce Young?

This week’s slate of picks includes some shaky QBs. But also Patrick Mahomes. Twice.

Season-to-Date Results

Let’s hope Mahomes can lead a rebound from last week.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams went surprisingly run-heavywithout Kyren Williams.

Gardner Minshew went surprisingly nuts on the Browns.

And we went just 4-8.

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Week 7: 4-8
  • Overall: 80-96

Let’s turn it around.

 

Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 8 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

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Passing Yards

Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Draft Sharks projection: 255
Underdog: 222.5
Difference: 32.5

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 281.2
Underdog: 255.5
Difference: 25.7

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
DS projection: 298.5
Underdog: 273.5
Difference: 25

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 238.3
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: 22.8

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 229.6
Underdog: 213.5
Difference: 16.1

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
DS projection: 257.4
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: 15.9

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 249.6
Underdog: 238.5
Difference: 11.1

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
DS projection: 246.6
Underdog: 260.5
Difference: -13.9

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
DS projection: 208.1
Underdog: 231.5
Difference: -23.4

QB Total Yards

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
DS projection: 323.7
Underdog: 299.5
Difference: 24.2

Analysis

Mahomes entered the last Denver meeting – just two weeks ago – averaging a mere 257.4 passing yards per game. Then he threw 40 times and tallied 306 yards against the Broncos. And then he exploded for 424 on the Chargers.

Mahomes has attempted 40+ throws in three straight games after averaging 35.8 attempts over the first four weeks.

On the under side, Joe Burrow feels a little uncomfortable, especially after Kirk Cousins had a big game against the 49ers. Even with that, though, they’re allowing just 5.6 yards per pass attempt on the season. 

Just two enemy QBs have reached Burrow’s current market line against San Francisco.

That said, I probably wouldn't include Burrow in my own plays.

Receiving Yards

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DS projection: 72.2
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 15.7

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 103.8
Underdog: 90.5
Difference: 13.3

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
DS projection: 69
Underdog: 57.5
Difference: 11.5

Analysis

We don’t often project players for 100+ yards. But the combo of A.J. Brown’s current run – five straight games of 125+ yards – and a Washington pass D that might be worst in the league makes him almost a no-brainer.

Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson are less comfy. But Wilson has exceeded this line in three of five Zach Wilson starts so far. And Evans has reached 60 yards in four of his five healthy games.

Rushing Yards

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 82.7
Underdog: 67.5
Difference: 15.2

Breece Hall, New York Jets
DS projection: 75.5
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 10

Analysis

The Broncos have allowed nearly 150 more RB rushing yards than any other defense so far. Even AJ Dillon just hit them up for 61 on the ground and 95 total yards. I was surprised Etienne’s line didn’t start higher.

Breece Hall has faced the league’s second-worst run defense by DVOA (Denver) and then the best (Philly) in the two games since HC Robert Saleh said he was ready for a full workload. That means we’re still working out just what to expect from him.

The Giants enter this matchup 15th in rush DVOA. So betting on Hall feels right.

Week 8 Waiver Wire Picks

Still got waiver moves to make in your season-long league? Well then fire up the Free Agent Finder and check out what Jared and I had to say about the top waiver wire RB options for Week 8.

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