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Top Picks for Week 2 Underdog Pick Em

By Matt Schauf 12:30pm EDT 9/16/22


Before we get to the top Underdog Pick Em plays of Week 2 (according to the Draft Sharks projections), let’s look back on how things went in Week 1.

I highlighted 27 plays here. Three of those guys left their games early with injuries. Sixteen of the remaining 24 hit their over/under.

Nearly all of the plays I highlighted were overs, which is the case again this week. And passing yardage offered our best hit rate by far.

Of the 6 QB passing-yard props I shared, 5 hit. Only Justin Fields didn’t, thanks primarily to a mere 17 pass attempts while playing in a waterfall.

That all makes sense. When I ran the numbers last week, the biggest gaps between our projections and the Underdog lines showed up in QB passing yards. That’s the case again this week.

So that group should draw your primary focus. You can also use those QB lines as starting points for correlated bets: the QB plus his lead WR, or a pass-catcher or RB from the opponent.

Keep in mind: We need to pick players from at least 2 different teams here. And the more we stack together, the bigger the payout.

Finally, if you’re new to Underdog and have yet to make your 1st deposit, click here to get that deposit matched up to $100.


Passing

Justin Fields, QB, Bears
Draft Sharks projection: 224.6 yards
Underdog: 186.5
Difference 38.1

Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos
DS: 280.4
Underdog: 243.5
Difference: 36.9

Baker Mayfield, QB, Panthers
DS: 249.1
Underdog: 218.5
Difference: 30.6

Mac Jones, QB, Patriots
DS: 236.6
Underdog: 209.5
Difference: 27.1

Jameis Winston, QB, Saints
DS: 255.4
Underdog: 228.5
Difference: 26.9

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
DS: 247.3
Underdog: 221.5
Difference: 25.8

Carson Wentz, QB, Commanders
DS: 262.7
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: 21.2

Cooper Rush, QB, Cowboys
DS: 239.7
Underdog: 219.5
Difference: 20.2

Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
DS: 265.4
Underdog: 276.5
Difference: -11.1

Trey Lance, QB, 49ers
DS: 183.9
Underdog: 197.5
Difference: -13.6

As much as I like Justin Fields the player, Russell Wilson is my favorite bet in this section. I have already locked a Wilson bet in, even without any of his pass-catchers. I have also already bet Wentz’s yards and Winston’s yards, stacking him with Michael Thomas (highlighted below).


Receiving

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
Draft Sharks projection: 62.0
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 13.5

George Pickens, WR, Steelers
DS: 43.8
Underdog: 30.5
Difference: 13.3

D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
DS: 72
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 12.5

Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
DS: 41.3
Underdog: 29.5
Difference: 11.8

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
DS: 72.7
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 11.2

Darren Waller, TE, Raiders
DS: 62.2
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 10.7

Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
DS: 49.5
Underdog: 39.5
Difference: 10.0

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
DS: 78.1
Underdog: 69.5
Difference: 8.6

Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
DS: 62.9
Underdog: 54.5
Difference: 8.4

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants
DS: 32.4
Underdog: 40.5
Difference: -8.1

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 91.9
Underdog: 100.5
Difference: -8.6

I would not bet against Davante Adams going over 100 yards. We lean conservative in these projections. Bateman needed a long ball to hit his over last week, but he did so even on disappointing target share and just 2 receptions. That’s a good thing, unless his usage doesn’t improve. Last year’s Miami defense was also susceptible to deep balls.


Rushing

Breece Hall, RB, Jets
Draft Sharks projection: 41.7 yards
Underdog: 27.5
Difference: 14.2

Michael Carter, RB, Jets
DS: 51
Underdog: 39.5
Difference: 11.3

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
DS: 81.8
Underdog: 70.5
Difference: 11.3

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
DS: 40.9
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: -11.6

I mentioned wariness for the Jets RB lines in last week’s article. Well, there were plenty of touches for both of them even in a one-sided loss to the Ravens. Can we count on that being the case again? I’m not sure. But the bars they need to clear remain fairly low.

Separately, Alvin Kamara’s under for rushing could correlate with Saints passing overs discussed earlier.

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