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Top Picks for Week 4 Underdog Pick Em

By Matt Schauf 6:05pm EDT 9/28/22


We got fewer picks in this space by hitting the lines early last week, but we also got some favorable numbers.

Once again, the highlighted QBs were a big help. I picked out 5 that we projected well above their Underdog yardage props. Four of them hit. The other – Mitchell Trubisky – fell just a half-yard short. Tough beat if you used him. (Though, aren’t you kind of asking for it if you bet any money on Trubisky delivering?)

Overall, 11 of the 16 highlighted plays hit. We got just 3 of 6 receiving props right. (Probably time to stop betting on D.J. Moore until something changes.) But 4 of the 5 highlighted rushing overs paid out.

As always, keep in mind that we have to pick at least 2 players from different teams for the Pick Em to run. So look for correlations.

That said, the best way to approach the first 3 weeks might have just been to play as many combos of QBs as possible.

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Passing

Jameis Winston, QB, Saints*
Draft Sharks projection: 267.5 yards
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: 27.7

(*Winston missed practice Wednesday, so wait until closer to game day before betting. And keep in mind the risk even if he’s active.)

Carson Wentz, QB, Commanders
DS: 264.3
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: 24.8

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Steelers
DS: 230
Underdog: 207.5
Difference: 22.5

Davis Mills, QB, Texans
DS: 237.2
Underdog: 218.5
Difference: 18.7

Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos
DS: 252.6
Underdog: 235.5
Difference: 17.1

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
DS: 261.7
Underdog: 245.5
Difference: 16.2

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
DS: 234.4
Underdog: 223.5
Difference: 10.9

Gotta admit, I’m not ready to bet on Wilson yet. He did go well over this number in Week 1, but then threw for 219 (vs. Houston) and 184 (vs. San Francisco) the past 2 games.


Receiving

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Draft Sharks projection: 86.1 yards
Underdog: 71.5
Difference: 14.6

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
DS: 77.6
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 12.1

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
DS: 74
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 8.5

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
DS: 83.7
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: 8.2

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens
DS: 56.6
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 8.1

Drake London, WR, Falcons
DS: 64.4
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 7.9

Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars
DS: 71.9
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 7.4

Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
DS: 94.9
Underdog: 87.5
Difference: 7.4

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders
DS: 73.7
Underdog: 81.5
Difference: -7.8

Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings
DS: 46.5
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: -6.0

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
DS: 75.2
Underdog: 80.5
Difference: -5.3

Bateman’s line has been 48.5 yards every week. He has yet to check in short of 59 yards, despite catching only 2 passes in 2 of those contests. Bateman’s obviously not a great bet to keep going for 27.0+ yards per reception every game. But we’d also bet on him averaging more than 2.67 catches per game going forward. His QB is certainly dealing.


Rushing

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
Draft Sharks projection: 76.1 yards
Underdog: 60.5
Difference: 15.6

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
DS: 69.9
Underdog: 57.5
Difference: 12.4

We’ve only got 12 RB rushing lines on the board as of this writing. The other 10 all sit within 4.1 yards over or under the line. More to come for this area.

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