Week 10 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) + JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000) + Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,100) + Travis Kelce ($7,800)
Trevor Lawrence ($5,400) + Christian Kirk ($5,900) + Evan Engram ($3,300)
The majority of my Week 10 tournament teams will be Jaguars-Chiefs stacks. This game has the highest over/under on the main slate at 50.5 points. It’s also the fastest-paced game: Jacksonville ranks 10th in situation-neutral pace; Kansas City 6th. Plus, a lot of players in this game are strong values.
The Chiefs side figures to be popular. Their 30.25-point implied total is 3.75 points higher than any other team on the main slate. And the Jaguars rank 30th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.
But triple stacking with Valdes-Scantling should help us differentiate. MVS has been a major disappointment so far this season. But he’s remained close to an every-down player, sports a big 12.2-yard average depth of target and could pick up an extra target or 2 with WR Mecole Hardman out.
The Jaguars side of this game will be much sneakier. Lawrence has had an up-and-down sophomore season but is coming off his best Pro Football Focus grade of the year. He’s also been running more lately, averaging 4.6 carries for 24.6 yards over his last 5. But the main appeal here is what should be elevated passing volume against the Chiefs, who sit 24th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Kirk is an easy stack with Lawrence considering he’s a cash-game value. The Chiefs rank 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have been most susceptible in the slot, where Kirk has seen 71% of his targets this season.
Engram is a more comfortable play after he was removed from the final injury report. Prior to being limited with a back issue last week, Engram had averaged 7.3 targets, 4.8 catches and 58 yards over his previous 4 games. The Chiefs sit 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) + Tyreek Hill ($9,100) OR Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
We’re getting to the point where we should probably just play at least 1 Dolphins stack every week. This offense is humming, averaging 27.3 points in 3 games since Tagovailoa returned from his concussion. Tua has topped 27 DK points in 2 straight and 3 of his 6 total healthy games this season.
Miami is sporting the 2nd highest implied total (26.5 points) on the main slate vs. a middling Browns defense. Cleveland sits 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, 12th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
While the Tua double stack is enticing, its combined price of $23,400 (47% of the salary cap) makes it tough to build around. So I’ll be single-stacking the Dolphins – and then running it back with either WR Amari Cooper ($6,500) or WR Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300).
Also consider: Dak Prescott ($6,600) + CeeDee Lamb ($7,000) + Dalton Schultz ($3,800)
I’ll be eating the chalk on Saquon Barkley ($8,600) and Alvin Kamara ($7,400), who I highlighted in the cash-game article. Kamara is an especially strong tournament play at what should be at least slightly deflated ownership after his Week 9 dud.
Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,300)
Henry goes toe-to-toe with Barkley as the top RB on this week’s slate.
QB Ryan Tannehill’s return should be good news for Tennessee’s offense – but this figures to be another Henry-centric game plan. Denver is stingy against the pass but ranks just 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks. The Broncos have coughed up 4.8 yards per carry to RBs over that span.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,100)
Etienne has been busy and explosive over the past 3 weeks, averaging 22.0 carries per game AND 5.7 yards per carry. Do that math and you get a huge 126 rushing yards per game. He gets a Chiefs squad on Sunday that ranks 28th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA and has allowed 5.9 yards per carry to RBs over the last 5 weeks.
Etienne also has exciting upside in the passing game in this one. The Chiefs have allowed the most catches and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing backs. Football Outsiders ranks them 26th in RB coverage.
David Montgomery, Bears ($6,000)
Here’s a way to get contrarian at RB. Montgomery is projected for just 8% ownership and provides leverage against the chalky Justin Fields.
Montgomery has remained the clear leader in Chicago’s backfield, playing 70+% of the offensive snaps in 4 of the last 5 games. He’s averaged 14.2 carries and 2.0 targets per game over that span.
Sunday brings a Lions team that ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. The Bears are 3-point home favorites with the 3rd highest implied total (25.75 points) on the main slate.
Also consider: Josh Jacobs ($7,600), Jonathan Taylor ($7,500), Tony Pollard ($6,500), Kareem Hunt ($5,300)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($6,900)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a big St. Brown game. He was banged up throughout October and has posted 13.9 and 9.5 DK points in his last 2 games.
But St. Brown has registered 27% and 35% target shares in those last 2. His shares in 2 healthy games to open the season: 32% and 35%. He’s averaged 10.8 targets across those 4 outings.
So the volume has remained huge, naturally giving St. Brown a big fantasy ceiling – especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings. His individual matchup is excellent on Sunday against Bears slot CB Kyler Gordon, who’s allowing the most yards per coverage snap this season.
Chris Olave, Saints ($6,800)
Same deal with Olave as St. Brown. He’s been quiet in the box score lately, but the volume has remained strong. Olave has seen 16 targets (26% share) over the last 2 weeks and is averaging 10.5 targets over his last 6 healthy games.
The rookie draws a Steelers defense on Sunday that ranks 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Pittsburgh will also be without stud S Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Amari Cooper, Browns ($6,500)
Cooper already has 4 games of 20+ DK points this season. He could find himself in a shootout on Sunday vs. the Dolphins, who rank 16th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
This looks like a particularly favorable matchup for Cooper, who has always been much more effective vs. man coverage than zone. Miami plays the 2nd most man coverage in the NFL at 41%, per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland.
George Pickens, Steelers ($5,000)
After a quiet start to the season, Pickens has averaged 6.3 targets, 4.0 catches and 52 yards over his last 6 games. That stretch has included outings of 14.3, 18.1 and 19.2 DK points.
Now Pickens comes out of his bye week, when we often see rookies take on bigger roles. That opportunity is certainly there for Pickens after the Steelers traded away WR Chase Claypool, who averaged 6.3 targets per game.
The Saints will once again be without top CB Marshon Lattimore on Sunday.
Also consider: Tyreek Hill ($9,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,000), Allen Lazard ($6,100), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($5,900), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300)
Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800)
I’m continuing to make a concerted effort to get Kelce into tournament lineups. He brings unrivaled upside at the position, especially with no Mark Andrews on this slate. Kelce has topped 22 DK points in 5 of 8 games this season.
He gets a Jaguars defense that sits dead last in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings.
Harrison Bryant, Browns ($2,700)
Here’s a way to save salary and get contrarian. Bryant is projected for 3% ownership.
David Njoku is out again, leaving Bryant as the Browns’ lead TE. That didn’t result in anything last time out – literally. Bryant finished without a catch on an underwhelming 42% route rate in the win over the Bengals.
That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be uninvolved again this week, though. In fact, Bryant should be a key part of Cleveland’s game plan vs. a Dolphins defense that sits 31st in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Also consider: Dalton Schultz ($3,800), Greg Dulcich ($3,400), Evan Engram ($3,300)