Week 10 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Joe Burrow ($6,800) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600) + Tyler Boyd ($4,600) or Trenton Irwin ($3,000)
This is certainly not an ownership play. Burrow (15%) and Chase (21%) are projected to be the two highest-owned players at their respective positions.
This is a ceiling and offensive concentration play.
WR Tee Higgins’ absence this weekend gives Chase a massive target ceiling. In the three games Higgins missed or played fewer than 55% of the offensive snaps in this season, Chase saw 9, 19, and 13 targets.
The Week 5 game against Arizona is what makes this stack so exciting. Higgins missed that game, but Burrow still went off for 27.4 DK points.
Chase scored a ridiculous 55.2 DK points in that one, accounting for:
- 41% of the team’s targets
- 42% of the receptions
- 61% of the receiving yards
- All three receiving scores
Chase’s back injury adds some risk. But consider it a win if it lowers his ownership at all.
Boyd and Irwin give us the opportunity to double-stack Burrow at value.
Boyd saw seven targets in all three of those games Higgins missed or was limited in. He’s been much more efficient with a healthy Burrow over the past two weeks, averaging a big 12.0 yards per target (up from 5.0 over his first six games).
Irwin was the Higgins replacement in that Week 5 game, running a route on 81% of Cincinnati’s pass plays and catching eight of 10 targets for 60 yards. Anything close to that level of involvement this weekend would be a big win at minimum salary.
One way we can get different on Burrow teams is by fading chalk WR Tank Dell and playing TE Dalton Schultz ($4,900) instead.
The Bengals rank a decent 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs but have been shredded by TEs. They sit 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position and 30th in TE coverage DVOA.
Schultz rolls into Week 10 off a 31-point outing and with 33 targets over his last four games.
Jared Goff ($6,400) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) + Sam LaPorta ($5,700)
The Lions are three-point favorites vs. the Chargers this weekend. If the game goes according to script, it could be a run-leaning game from Detroit.
But the Chargers offense is certainly capable of jumping out to a lead – and turning this into a shootout.
And if the Lions are forced to open up the offense, Goff could have a big one against a flammable pass defense. The Chargers rank 21st in pass defense DVOA and dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. They’ve allowed four QBs to top 24 DK points this season.
Goff has flashed a ceiling, with games of 25.4, 26.9, and 27.4 DK points this year.
St. Brown and LaPorta have combined to soak up 48% of Detroit’s targets and both have excellent matchups here. The Chargers rank 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and 30th vs. TEs.
It’d certainly be nice to run back Goff teams with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. But that gets pricey.
So swallow your vomit and at least consider WR Quentin Johnston ($4,100). He predictably struggled vs. a tough Jets secondary last week. But he registered a season-high 95% route rate in that game with WR Josh Palmer out.
An every-down WR at $4,100 and 4% projected ownership in a likely shootout is a strong tournament play.
- Geno Smith ($5,800) + D.K. Metcalf ($6,800) + Tyler Lockett ($6,100)
- Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) + Christian Kirk ($6,000) + Calvin Ridley ($5,600)
- Brock Purdy ($5,700) + Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) + Deebo Samuel ($6,200)
- Will Levis ($5,300) + DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000)
David Montgomery, Lions ($6,900)
Should the Lions keep RB Jahmyr Gibbs heavily involved? Yep.
Will they? Maybe.
This is, after all, the same team that took Gibbs 12th overall and then gave him just 22 carries in his first three games alongside a healthy Montgomery.
So it’s definitely possible that Detroit goes right back to treating Montgomery like a workhorse. But that possibility isn’t being factored into ownership, with Montgomery projected for just 2%.
Montgomery, of course, is mostly a play on TD upside. And there’s plenty of that this weekend with the Lions sporting a 25.75-point implied total, third highest on the main slate.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,000)
It’s time to go back to Bijan.
He’s at his lowest price of the season, projected for a reasonable 14% ownership, and gets an excellent matchup against the Cardinals.
Arizona ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, 22nd in RB coverage DVOA, and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
This game has more shootout potential with QB Kyler Murray back for the Cardinals.
And – you probably don’t wanna hear this if you’ve been invested in Robinson this season – but his role has not been that bad. He ranks:
- 5th among RBs in snaps
- 22nd in carries
- 3rd in targets
And that’s despite barely playing in Week 7.
That’s plenty of opportunity for a talented player in a plus matchup to deliver at $6,000.
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
- Austin Ekeler ($8,400)
- Tony Pollard ($7,300)
- Travis Etienne ($7,100)
- Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000)
- Aaron Jones ($6,500)
- Joe Mixon ($6,200)
- Najee Harris ($4,900)
D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,800)
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($6,100)
This is a get-right spot for the Seahawks passing game.
The Commanders rank 29th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. And they just traded away their top two pass rushers at the deadline.
Even more exciting: Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes was un-benched last week. The rookie has been getting smoked all year, ranking 75th in Pro Football Focus coverage grade and 86th in passer rating allowed among 98 qualifying CBs.
Both Metcalf and Lockett will see Forbes in coverage this weekend.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,200)
Samuel was a full participant in practice all week and isn’t listed on the final injury report. It looks like he’s healthier now than he’s been since Week 2.
And if that’s the case, there’s tournament-winning potential here – especially at $6,200.
Samuel already has games of 22.1 and 28.1 DK points on his ledger this season and went for 26+ points nine times over the previous two seasons.
He gets a zone-heavy Jaguars pass defense this weekend, making it a good spot for Deebo.
- Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300)
- Mike Evans ($7,200)
- DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000)
- Calvin Ridley ($5,600)
- Tank Dell ($5,500)
- Drake London ($5,500)
- Marquise Brown ($5,200)
- Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
- Quentin Johnston ($4,100)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100)
- Noah Brown ($3,700)
- Trenton Irwin ($3,000)
Taysom Hill, Saints ($5,100)
Let’s keep this one simple.
Here are Hill’s DraftKings points the last three weeks:
Mark Andrews is $1,800 more expensive than Hill. Here are his three best DK point tallies this season:
Could this be a week that Hill disappears from the game plan? Sure.
But most TEs are going to disappoint. At least Hill has showed us a tournament-winning ceiling multiple times this season.
Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,800)
Seattle CBs Tariq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Devon Witherspoon are playing really well. Since their Week 5 bye, the Seahawks have allowed just 111 yards per game to opposing WRs.
They’ve been relatively worse against TEs, allowing 68 yards per game to the position over the last four. That includes a 4-77-1 line from David Njoku and a 9-80-0 line from Mark Andrews the past two weeks.
This looks like a matchup that might find Thomas as a bigger part of the Washington passing attack than usual.
He has games of 21.7 and 16.4 DraftKings points this season.
- Sam LaPorta ($5,700)
- Dalton Schultz ($4,900)
- Trey McBride ($3,500)
- Chig Okonkwo ($3,000)