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Week 11 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 8:16pm EST 11/18/22


QB

Justin Fields, Bears ($7,600)

Dak Prescott ($6,600) and even Daniel Jones ($5,700) are viable cash plays depending on what you want to do with the rest of your team. But I’m gonna keep riding this Fields train.

We’ve obviously seen absolute ceiling outings from Fields the past 2 weeks. But he scored 19.4, 24.4 and 26.0 DK points the previous 3 games. That feels like a realistic floor range for a guy averaging 12.4 carries over his last 5.

Fields gets a dome game on Sunday vs. the Falcons. This game has a big 49.5-point over/under, with the Bears sporting a solid 23.25-point implied total. Atlanta ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, 25th in run defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Fields’ hot streak will come to an end at some point. But I don’t think it happens this week.


RBs

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($7,400)

Jonathan Taylor ($7,800) and Josh Jacobs ($7,500) are viable plays in this range, but I’m going to #TrustTheProcess and play the RB who’s a 3.5-point favorite with a 22-point implied total. (The Colts and Raiders are underdogs with lower implied totals.)

Mixon is coming off a massive Week 9 outing that was overdue considering the volume he’s been getting all season. He’s averaging 16.8 carries and 5.6 targets per game – and is tied with Austin Ekeler for the most expected PPR points per game among RBs. Mixon’s volume is even safer with WR Ja’Marr Chase out again this weekend.

Mixon went for 21.5 DK points vs. the Steelers back in Week 1.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($6,700)

Damien Harris is back for New England this week, but Stevenson remains the favorite to lead the team in carries. When he last saw Harris (in Week 8 vs. the Jets), Stevenson out-snapped him 49 to 32 and out-carried him 16 to 11.

But we’re mostly playing Stevenson for his passing-game usage. He’s tallied 5+ targets in 4 straight games and 6 of his last 7. Only 5 RBs have more total targets since Week 3.

Stevenson caught all 7 of his targets for 72 yards in the Week 8 meeting vs. the Jets. He added 71 yards on 16 carries for 21.3 DK points.

David Montgomery, Bears ($6,100)

Montgomery is still priced as if Khalil Herbert is around. He landed on IR earlier this week, leaving behind an average of 10.4 carries over the last 5 weeks.

Montgomery should pick up a big chunk of that work, with 6th-round rookie Trestan Ebner Chicago’s new #2 RB. Herbert’s usage in the Week 4 game that Montgomery missed looks like a good approximation for the role Montgomery will be stepping into. In that one, Herbert played 77% of the Bears’ offensive snaps and handled 19 carries and 1 target.

Boosting Montgomery’s appeal is a plus matchup against the Falcons, who sit 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

The only thing keeping Montgomery from must-play status in cash is his minimal passing-game role. He’s averaged just 1.4 targets over his last 5 games – and Herbert leaves behind just 2 total targets during that stretch.


WRs

Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($6,000)

Sutton should dominate targets with both Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler out on Sunday. He racked up 11 looks on a 26% share in last week’s loss to Tennessee and, per 4for4’s John Daigle, has seen 28% of Broncos targets with Jeudy off the field this season.

Sutton also draws a juicy matchup vs. the Raiders, who rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Sutton posted a 5-52-1 line on 7 targets vs. Vegas back in Week 4 – alongside a healthy Jeudy.

Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,900)

Expect a run-heavy game plan from Washington vs. the Texans on Sunday. But the Commanders went run-heavy in last week’s win over the Eagles – and McLaurin came away with a big 8-128 line on 11 targets.

That’s the power of a 38% target share. McLaurin has been consistently drawing big shares from QB Taylor Heinicke over the past 4 weeks, averaging 9.0 targets per game. He’s far too cheap for that level of volume.

Note that the Texans rank 10th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs largely because they’ve faced the 2nd fewest pass attempts per game. Houston has surrendered a 64% completion rate and 15.1 yards per catch to opposing WRs – both higher than league average. And 1st-round rookie CB Derek Stingley will miss this game.

Parris Campbell, Colts ($4,300)

It’s been masked by the 2 Sam Ehlinger starts, but Campbell has been awesome in 3 straight games with Matt Ryan. He’s averaged 10.7 targets, 8.0 catches, 68 yards and 1 TD in those games, scoring 18.7, 23.0 and 20.6 DK points.

The Eagles prevent a tough macro matchup for the Colts passing game, but it’s actually a good spot for Campbell. Philly is weakest in the slot, where Campbell has played 75% of his snaps this season. And the Eagles rank 27th in EPA/Attempt allowed on passes under 7 yards downfield. That’s where Campbell lives, sporting a 5.5-yard average depth of target.

Also consider: Justin Jefferson ($9,100), Stefon Diggs ($8,300), CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) … if you’re paying down at QB


TE

Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,500)

Hurst has been a relatively safe bet at TE. He’s averaging 5.3 targets per game this season and has caught 4+ balls in 6 of 9 games. There’s opportunity for him to take on a bigger load this weekend with WR Ja’Marr Chase out again.

Hurst gets a Steelers defense on Sunday that ranks 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Hurst posted a 5-46 line on 8 targets in their Week 1 meeting.

Also consider: Dalton Schultz ($4,300), Greg Dulcich ($3,800)


DST

Steelers ($2,300)

Pittsburgh’s DST racked up 26 DK points vs. Cincinnati back in Week 1, tallying 7 sacks, 5 takeaways and 1 TD.

We can’t bank on the takeaways and TD in the rematch – but the Steelers are a good sack bet, especially with T.J. Watt back. The Bengals have allowed the 3rd most sacks per game and rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate.


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