Kyle Allen, Panthers ($5,300)
I got burned by the Falcons’ surprising defensive performance in New Orleans last week. But I’m nowhere near ready to consider this a defense to fear. In fact, I think it’s still a matchup to attack.
The Falcons had allowed multiple passing scores in 6 straight games prior to last week — on top of an average of 292 yards per game. They still rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings, 23rd in DraftKings points allowed to QBs and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Allen, meanwhile, has played well against solid Titans and Packers defenses over the past 2 weeks, completing 60% of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt and tossing 3 TDs. Pro Football Focus ranks Allen 11th in their passing grades during that stretch.
It all makes him a strong money-saving play in cash games.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($7,700)
It’s gotten to the point that we should make at least 1 tournament team with Jackson every week. He’s topped 26 DK points in 7 of 9 games and gone over 33 points 4 times.
Jackson is averaging 13.7 points per game with his rushing alone. His passing upside is elevated this week against a tattered Texans secondary that’s allowed an average of 305 yards and 2.6 TDs per game over its last 5.
And Houston’s offense is good enough to make this game competitive and keep Jackson attacking.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers ($6,500)
Why is Winston projected for just 6% ownership?
The dude is rolling, with 300+ passing yards in 4 straight. He’s averaged 23.7 DK points per game over that span, despite throwing just 6 total TDs.
This matchup against New Orleans looks tough on paper. But with top CB Marshon Lattimore expected to be out with his hamstring injury, the secondary is susceptible. The Saints will be trotting out Eli Apple, P.J. Williams and 4th-round rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as their top 3 CBs.
I’m expecting a shootout here, which has been the norm for Tampa. Bucs games have averaged 59.9 points per game. Four of their 9 games have gone over 60 points.
So stack Winston with Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin and bring it back with Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas or Jared Cook.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($10,500)
Here’s your weekly reminder that McCaffrey is still underpriced. He actually pops as the top dollars-per-point play among main-slate RBs.
The Falcons have actually played the run pretty well this season, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and limiting opposing backs to 3.9 yards per carry. But CMC’s TD upside is even higher than usual this week with his Panthers sporting a big 26.75-point implied total.
Brian Hill, Falcons ($4,800)
After Devonta Freeman exited last week’s game, Hill received all 18 RB opportunities (16 carries, 2 targets). That was despite RBs Kenjon Barner and Qadree Ollison being active.
So expect Hill to play a feature role this weekend. He certainly has the size to handle it at 6’1 and 219 pounds. Hill carried 630 times for 3,491 yards and 28 TDs over his final 2 seasons at Wyoming.
He couldn’t ask for a better matchup, either. The Panthers sit dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and have coughed up 5.1 yards per carry to RBs.
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars ($7,900)
Fournette comes fresh off his bye for a matchup that’s better than you might think.
The Colts rank 6th in DraftKings points allowed to RBs. But that’s largely because they’ve faced the 9th fewest RB carries. Football Outsiders ranks Indy 23rd in run defense; Pro Football Focus ranks them 27th.
Fournette remains as good a volume bet as any RB not named McCaffrey. And he’s still in for some positive TD regression, with just 1 score on 214 touches.
Devin Singletary, Bills ($6,000)
The rookie disappointed as a popular play last week — but his price jumped up by a thousand bucks. So expect Singletary to come in fairly low owned.
His usage remained solid last week. Singletary played 68% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, handled 62% of the RB carries and garnered 7 targets (a 17% share). The Bills simply abandoned the run in Cleveland.
Expect them to rectify that this weekend in a good spot as 6.5-point favorites against the Dolphins. Miami sits 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and has allowed 4.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs.
D.J. Moore, Panthers ($5,900)
Moore is in the midst of an excellent season that’s going overlooked because he’s scored just once. He ranks 10th among WRs in targets, 9th in catches and 13th in yards. And he’s been especially productive lately, averaging 9.6 targets, 6.8 catches and 85 yards over his last 5 outings.
So Moore is too cheap for Sunday’s plum matchup against a Falcons defense sitting 26th in DraftKings points allowed to WRs and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($4,000)
Samuel’s 8-catch, 112-yard breakout last week came on Monday night — so his price didn’t get adjusted.
That breakout, of course, came with WR Emmanuel Sanders missing most of the game vs. Seattle. Even if Sanders is able to play through his rib injury this week, though, Samuel will still be a strong play vs. the Cardinals’ 21st-ranked WR defense. If Sanders is out, Samuel is basically a must-play in cash.
Amari Cooper, Cowboys ($7,700)
Priced above Julio Jones, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Cooper figures to go overlooked this week.
If we remove Week 6, when he played just 3 snaps, Cooper has out-scored all 3 of those guys. In fact, his scoring average in his other 8 games ranks 2nd behind only Michael Thomas. Cooper has turned in 4 games of 25+ DK points.
He figures to see a bunch of Lions CB Darius Slay this weekend — but that’s not a matchup to fear. Slay ranks 49th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades among 137 qualifying CBs. The Lions as a team sit 24th in DK points allowed to WRs.
John Brown, Bills ($6,400)
He’s been more of a floor than ceiling play this season. But Brown did tally 28.3 DK points back in Week 1. And his elite speed keeps that upside intact.
We could see the ceiling again this week. The Fins have been using CB Nik Needham to shadow opposing #1 WRs lately. It’ll be a mistake if they stick him on Brown. Needham ran a 4.67-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Brown ran a 4.34 at the Combine.
Eric Ebron, Colts ($3,600)
He set season highs with a 61% snap rate, 80% route rate and 12 targets last week. Expect the increased usage to continue on Sunday with WR T.Y. Hilton still out. And Ebron will get QB Jacoby Brissett back.
The matchup is fine against a Jaguars squad sitting 19th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings, 14th in DK points allowed to TEs and 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Jared Cook, Saints ($4,400)
Cook set season highs with 10 targets, 6 catches and 74 yards in Drew Brees’ return last week. He played 70% of the Saints’ offensive snaps and ran a route on 76% of Brees’ drop backs.
That type of usage gives him big upside in Sunday’s plus matchup against a Tampa Bay defense ranked 31st in both DK points allowed to TEs and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Just over their last 3 games, the Bucs have coughed up a 6-78-1 line to Jonnu Smith and a 4-37-2 to Jacob Hollister.
Arizona pops as the best dollars-per-point value among main-slate DSTs — and its not particularly close. Our projections have the Cards at $300 per point. The next closest team, the Saints, are at $403.
That’s largely because of Arizona’s dirt-cheap price. But it’s also worth noting that they get a 49ers offense that will be without LT Joe Staley, TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida and potentially WR Emmanuel Sanders.
Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well lately. But he’s never far from a multi-INT game — especially against a strong pass defense like Buffalo’s.
This is also the biggest pass-rush vs. pass-block mismatch of the week. Pro Football Focus ranks the Bills 14th in their pass-rush grades and the Dolphins dead last in pass-blocking.