Week 11 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Cardinals at Texans
It would have sounded crazy two months ago to say that Cardinals-Texans would be the premier game on the Week 11 main slate. But here we are.
This game is sporting a lofty 48-point over/under, is the fifth-fastest-paced matchup on the slate, and features two ascending offenses.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans have had flashes of brilliance throughout the season, scoring 30+ points four times.
The Cardinals look ready to score a bunch more the rest of the way with a healthy Kyler Murray back under center.
And neither defense is very good. The Cardinals, in particular, rank bottom-7 in points allowed, yards allowed, and defensive DVOA. (The Texans sit middle of the pack in all three metrics.)
So there’s clear potential for this game to turn into a shootout. And the values on both sides of the ball make it an even more attractive game stack:
- Kyler Murray #3 QB value
- Devin Singletary #2 RB value
- Rondale Moore #1 WR value
- Marquise Brown #8 WR value
- Tank Dell #10 WR value
- Trey McBride #4 TE value
This game isn’t sneaking up on anyone. All seven of the players listed above will be popular.
But WR Nico Collins (4%) and TE Dalton Schultz (12%) are coming in with relatively low projected ownership. Throwing either guy into a game stack will make your team unique.
And, of course, we can always differentiate at the other spots on our roster.
- Jared Goff ($6,600) + Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) + Sam LaPorta ($5,800)
- Justin Fields ($6,900) + D.J. Moore ($5,600) + Cole Kmet ($4,100)
- Brock Purdy ($5,800) + Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) + Deebo Samuel ($6,300)
Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($8,600)
Ekeler has faced a brutal stretch of defenses since returning from his ankle injury:
Outside of the Jets, those other four teams rank top-8 in run defense DVOA, adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, or both.
According to our Strength of Schedule, it was the seventh toughest RB slate from Week 6 to 10.
Sunday brings relief in the form of a bad Packers run defense. Green Bay ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA, and teams have registered the fourth highest run rate over expected against the Packers.
As a result, they rank 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
With WRs Mike Williams and Josh Palmer out, and WRs Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton dealing with injuries, Ekeler should continue to soak up a huge share of Chargers touches.
He’s averaged 16.0 carries and 7.3 targets over the past three weeks, ranking third among RBs in expected PPR points per game during that span.
Ekeler is projected for just 8% ownership.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($6,900)
De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($6,600)
The Raiders will be the fourth defense ranked bottom-6 in run defense DVOA that Miami has faced this season.
Here’s what the RBs did in the first three:
- vs. Broncos - 351 rushing yards, five rushing TDs
- vs. Giants - 216 rushing yards, two TDs
- vs. Panthers - 166 rushing yards, three TDs
There’s uncertainty with both Achane and Mostert.
How much work will Achane get in his first game back from a multi-week knee injury?
How much work will Mostert get with Achane back in the mix?
But we should be more than willing to eat that uncertainty for the massive ceilings that both guys present.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,000)
- Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($6,600)
- Breece Hall, Jets ($6,400)
- Aaron Jones, Packers ($6,200)
- Brian Robinson, Commanders ($5,800)
- Devin Singletary, Texans ($5,300)
Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,300)
This is an excellent spot for the 49ers passing game against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense with a struggling secondary.
Tampa Bay has allowed three WRs to top 23 DK points over the past three weeks.
Samuel scored 15.9 DK points in his return last week. More importantly, he looked healthy.
Samuel already has games of 22 and 28 DK points this season.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,800)
The Giants surprisingly limited QB Sam Howell to 249 scoreless yards back in Week 7.
Their performance against the Cowboys last week is much more indicative of the quality of this pass defense. Dallas WRs were running wide open all over the field in that one. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks both topped 35 DK points.
McLaurin admittedly has not had a tournament-winning performance yet this season. But that’s largely because he’s scored just two receiving TDs.
There’s 100-yard, multi-TD upside in this week’s matchup.
And he's leverage off a chalky RB Brian Robinson.
D.J. Moore, Bears ($5,600)
QB Justin Fields’ return brings back Moore’s ceiling. We saw him score 30 and 52 DK points with Fields earlier this year.
Moore’s volume didn’t change much sans Fields. But his average depth of target sunk to 10.4 yards – way down from 15.1 yards with Fields.
Those deep targets are what give Moore the tournament-winning upside.
Sunday’s game vs. the Lions has shootout potential if Fields plays well.
Detroit just coughed up 40.5 DK points to Keenan Allen last week and allowed Adam Thielen and Tyler Lockett to top 25 earlier this year.
- Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,300)
- Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,200)
- Nico Collins, Texans ($6,700)
- Tank Dell, Texans ($5,900)
- Calvin Ridley, Jaguars ($5,400)
- Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,300)
- Michael Wilson, Cardinals ($3,400)
Luke Musgrave, Packers ($3,600)
Musgrave checks in as the third-best dollars-per-point value at TE but is projected for just 1% ownership.
He’s seen just eight total targets over the past two weeks – but turned them into five catches, 105 yards, and a TD.
This is a 97th percentile athlete with big-play ability that not many other TEs possess.
Musgrave gets a Chargers defense on Sunday that ranks 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Los Angeles sits bottom five in catches and yards allowed to the position.
Donald Parham, Chargers ($3,100)
TE Gerald Everett will miss Sunday’s game vs. the Packers, putting Parham in an expanded role.
When Everett missed Week 8, Parham posted a 4-43-1 line on five targets.
For the season, he leads the Chargers and ranks second among all TEs with seven end-zone targets.
There’s significant TD upside here.
- Sam LaPorta, Lions ($5,800)
- Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($4,900)
- Trey McBride, Cardinals ($4,400)
- Tyler Conklin, Jets ($2,900)
- Michael Mayer, Raiders ($2,700)