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Week 12 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:07pm EST 11/26/22


Stacks

Justin Herbert ($7,000) + 2 of Austin Ekeler ($8,500), Keenan Allen ($6,100), Josh Palmer ($5,400), Gerald Everett ($4,400)
Kyler Murray ($6,800) + 1 or 2 of James Conner ($6,600), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700), Marquise Brown ($5,300), Trey McBride ($3,100)

I like stacking both sides of this game. The Chargers and Cardinals have been 2 of the most disappointing offenses in the NFL so far – but both units are getting healthier. Allen and Everett are off the Chargers’ final injury report. And the Cardinals should have Hopkins and Brown on the field together on Sunday for the 1st time.

This game’s 48.5-point over/under is highest on the main slate.

The biggest challenge with Herbert teams is deciding who to stack him with. Ekeler, Allen, Palmer and Everett are all nice values. I’d use at least 2 Chargers – and a triple stack is also viable.

Everett is my favorite option in this matchup. The Cardinals sit 31st in both Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Murray was a full-go in practice all week, and it looks like Arizona held him out until he was truly back to 100%. So he should bring his usual rushing upside – plus added passing upside with Hopkins and Brown available.

Murray is a more viable single stack because he derives a good chunk of his fantasy value from his legs. Using Conner is a good way to differentiate your Murray stack. I’d only consider McBride if slot receiver Greg Dortch sits with his thumb injury.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900) + Tyreek Hill ($8,800) + Jaylen Waddle ($7,300)

Jeff Wilson will be the most popular Dolphin in Week 12 DK lineups. And that certainly makes sense on paper against a pathetic Texans run defense.

But it also presents a prime opportunity to get this high-upside Miami passing attack at deflated ownership.

The Dolphins could go run-heavy and still end up scoring their TDs through the air. Or HC Mike McDaniel could simply flip the script and come out chucking the ball against a below-average Texans pass defense that will be without top CB Derek Stingley.

You definitely don’t need a runback on Dolphins stacks, but WR Nico Collins makes sense as a salary saver.

Also consider: Geno Smith ($6,000) + D.K. Metcalf ($6,500) + Tyler Lockett ($6,200), Tom Brady ($5,800) + Mike Evans ($6,700) + Chris Godwin ($6,000)



RBs

Jeff Wilson ($5,900) and Rachaad White ($5,100) are good chalk and shouldn’t be fully faded. Just be thoughtful with how you’re using them, making sure you have enough contrarian plays around them.

Here are some lower-owned plays to mix in:

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($8,500)

The value available at RB this week figures to pull ownership away from Ekeler.

He’s coming off a funky game that saw him carry 19 times but tally just 2 targets. He averaged 11.6 carries and 9.0 targets over his first 9 games.

Expect something closer to that usage on Sunday against a Cardinals defense that really struggles against RBs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the 6th most receiving yards to RBs and sit 30th in Football Outsiders’ RB coverage rankings.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($5,500)

Pacheco has handled 31 of 40 Chiefs RB carries over the past 2 weeks, averaging a big 6.1 yards per. He didn’t see a target in either game but ran a total of 25 routes, so there’s some potential in the passing game.

Pacheco should remain busy with RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire on IR. And the spot is perfect with the Chiefs massive 15.5-point home favorites with a 28.75-point implied total vs. the Rams. If this game goes according to plan, it should be a whole lot of Pacheco in the 2nd half.

Antonio Gibson, Commanders ($5,400)

Gibson seems to be taking control of Washington’s backfield. Even in positive game script last week, he out-snapped Brian Robinson 46 to 23, out-carried him 18 to 15 and out-targeted him 3 to 0. Gibson is averaging 14.3 carries and 3.0 targets over the last 3 games without RB J.D. McKissic.

Sunday brings an Atlanta squad that ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Gibson would be chalky in this spot most weeks, but he’s projected for just 10% ownership this week, sandwiched between Jeff Wilson and Rachaad White.

Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($8,800), Derrick Henry ($8,300), Ken Walker ($6,900), James Conner ($6,600)



WRs

Davante Adams, Raiders ($8,600) + D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,500) or Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($6,200)

Seahawks QB Geno Smith (13% projected ownership) is a bit too chalky to be a priority stack. But I like getting a piece of this game by mini-stacking the WRs on each side.

Adams has ripped off 3 straight games of 30+ DK points, averaging a whopping 14.7 targets per game. That level of volume might be sustainable with WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller out again. Plus, RB Josh Jacobs is dealing with a calf injury.

Metcalf and Lockett get a Raiders team that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Mike Evans, Bucs ($6,700)

Evans is on a 6-game TD drought that I expect to end very soon. He’s remained productive otherwise, averaging 9.2 targets, 5.5 catches and 73 yards over those 6 games.

Evans gets a Browns defense on Sunday that ranks 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has particularly struggled against outside receivers. Starting CB Greg Newsome, who’s split his time evenly out wide and in the slot, will miss this game.

Treylon Burks, Titans ($4,200)

The rookie has drawn 21.5% of Titans targets in his 2 games back from injury. Burks has turned those 14 looks into 10 catches and 135 yards.

He’ll likely need trailing game script to hit his ceiling – but that’s possible against an explosive Bengals offense this weekend.

Cincinnati has also struggled in pass defense lately, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders DVOA over the last 5 weeks.

Also consider: Keenan Allen ($6,100), Chris Godwin ($6,000), Josh Palmer ($5,400), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,700), Courtland Sutton ($5,600), Julio Jones ($4,000), Skyy Moore ($3,000)



TEs

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($6,500)

Travis Kelce is obviously a strong play, too – but I prefer Andrews at a $1,200 discount.

He didn’t light up the stat sheet in his return last week, but the usage remained elite. Andrews ran a route on 97% of Ravens pass plays and earned 24% of the team’s targets. He’s at a massive 29% target share in his 8 healthy games this season.

Andrews should be in that territory again on Sunday with TE Isaiah Likely out and WRs Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay banged up. And he gets a Jaguars defense that Football Outsiders ranks dead last in TE coverage.

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,400)

I’m frankly shocked to see Everett coming in at 3% projected ownership. He’s been busy and productive all season, averaging 6.6 targets, 4.0 catches and 43 yards across 8 healthy games. He was a full-go in practice all week and isn’t listed on the final injury report after missing Week 11 with a groin.

Everett should find a nice game environment on Sunday and gets a plus matchup against a Cardinals defense that sits 31st in both Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider: Travis Kelce ($7,700), Greg Dulcich ($3,700), Foster Moreau ($3,400), Evan Engram ($3,200) Trey McBride ($3,100)



DSTs

The Chiefs ($2,800) figure to be 1 of the highest-owned DSTs of the season. I’d only use them in lineups that are otherwise very contrarian.

These DSTs aren’t quite as strong as the Chiefs but will carry much less ownership:

Broncos ($3,800)
Jets ($3,300)
Titans ($3,100)
Panthers ($3,000)

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