Week 13 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($5,900)
I’d love to get up to Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) in a likely shootout against a Bengals squad that ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks. But there isn’t enough viable value at the other positions to make that optimal.
That’s not to say I’m gun shy about playing Lawrence. He’s on a roll, registering his 3 highest Pro Football Focus passing grades of the season the past 3 weeks. Lawrence has tallied 20+ DK points in 2 straight and now gets a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
This game’s 51-point over/under is 2nd highest on the main slate. Jacksonville is sporting a healthy 24-point team total.
There are tons of intriguing plays at RB this week. There are very few that I feel good about in cash.
Josh Jacobs ($7,900) and Travis Etienne ($6,400) would be locks … if they weren’t playing through injuries. Nick Chubb has the nut matchup against Houston … but doesn’t have the pass-catching role we’re looking for from an $8,000 back.
So, for the first time in a long time, I’ll be playing only 2 RBs in cash.
Aaron Jones, Packers ($6,900)
The Bears run defense has been bad all season and even worse lately. They rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over the past 5 weeks, coughing up 5.2 yards per carry and 8 total RB TDs.
Although Jones isn’t a true feature back in an offense that also mixes in A.J. Dillon, he’s averaged 15.4 carries and 4.0 targets over his last 5 games, with 16+ opportunities in 4 of those 5. He’s a good bet for at least that many looks this weekend in what should be a run-heavy game plan from Green Bay.
Jones is at his 2nd lowest price of the season and checks in as the 5th-best dollars-per-point value at RB.
Dameon Pierce, Texans ($5,900)
Does it feel good to play a RB who’s totaled 8.3 DK points over the past 2 weeks? No, no it does not.
But let’s remember that Pierce had been super steady for the previous 7 games, averaging 18.2 DK points and never dipping below 13.2. And it’s not like the Texans offense was lighting it up over that span.
Pierce gets a great matchup on Sunday against a Browns team that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over its last 4 games. Cleveland has surrendered 5.6 yards per carry during that span and allowed 5 different RBs to score 14.5+ DK points.
Also consider: David Montgomery ($6,200), Zonovan Knight ($4,600)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($7,100)
St. Brown is about $1,000 too cheap. He’s 4th among main-slate WRs in our Week 13 projections but just 8th in DK salary.
Healthy over his last 5 games, St. Brown has averaged 9.6 targets, 7.4 catches and 88 yards. He’s ripped off 18.9 DK points per game during that stretch, despite scoring just 1 TD.
St. Brown gets a plus matchup on Sunday at home for a Jaguars team that has slumped to 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the past 5 weeks.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($6,300)
Zay Jones had the blowup game last week, but Kirk saw another 9 targets. That gives him 9.4 targets per game on a 25.7% share over his last 5 outings.
Kirk draws a Lions defense on Sunday that ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Detroit has particularly struggled in the slot, where Kirk has played 68% of his snaps this season.
Josh Palmer, Chargers ($5,600)
Palmer was relatively quiet last week, but he ran a route on all 55 Chargers pass plays and drew 7 targets. He’s averaging 9.4 targets over his last 5 games – including 8.5 over the last 2 alongside Keenan Allen.
This weekend brings a Raiders squad that ranks 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs on the season and 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.
Garrett Wilson, Jets ($5,300)
Wilson popped off for a 5-95-2 line last week, drawing 8 of 28 Mike White passes (28.6% target share). The rookie has now averaged 20.2 DK points in 4 games without QB Zach Wilson, who will be tucked safely away on the bench this weekend.
Wilson will square off with a Vikings defense that ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs on the season and 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.
Also consider: Keenan Allen ($6,500), Zay Jones ($4,900), Nico Collins ($4,200)
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($4,300)
Even after seeing just 4 targets last week, Freiermuth is still averaging 7.8 targets on a 21.4% share over his last 5 games. Travis Kelce is the only TE with more expected PPR points per game over that stretch. Freiermuth ranks 6th in actual PPR points per game.
Sunday brings a plus matchup against Atlanta’s 27th-ranked TE defense, making Freiermuth our top dollars-per-point TE value by a significant margin.
Also consider: Hayden Hurst ($3,500)
T.J. Watt has played 4 games this season. The Steelers DST has scored 26, 10, 2 and 10 DK points in those games. Watt is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the Falcons with a ribs injury but should play.
If he doesn’t, you can easily pivot to the Jets at the same price. They don’t have as favorable a matchup as Pittsburgh but are a better defense, ranking 4th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.