Week 13 FanDuel Tournament Picks
Last week presented limited opportunities to find great matchups and stacks. This week is the opposite. Multiple team stacks are viable this week, including TB, LAR, ARI, PHI, MIN, CIN and LAC. The key to being profitable this week in DFS tournaments will be picking which games to attack and which games to fade.
The choices are overwhelming this week. It’s very difficult to approach the QB position on a slate where there is no shortage of ceiling. Our projections have 8 QBs with a ceiling projection over 24 points.
Tom Brady ($8,100)
The game environment for Brady checks every single box:
- 2nd fastest pace of play on the main slate
- Buccaneers with an implied team total of 31 (highest of any team in Week 13)
- The largest mismatch in pass offense DVOA vs. the Falcons pass defense
- The Falcons have allowed the 4th most passing TDs this season
- The Falcons have allowed the 4th most adjusted fantasy points to QBs this season
He will be the highest owned QB on the slate, so if you play him, you’ll have to differentiate elsewhere.
Matthew Stafford ($7,800)
Stafford projects just as well as Tom Brady.The Rams/Jaguars matchup is the only game with a faster pace than Bucs/Falcons. The Rams also have a 30.5 implied point total, and the Jaguars defense currently ranks dead last in pass-defense DVOA. The Rams may be without Darrell Henderson in this game, making Sony Michel a popular RB play.So playing Stafford provides leverage against that.
Russell Wilson ($7,300)
Since Wilson has returned, the Seahawks have yet to score more than 15 points on offense. However, the 49ers are a pass funnel defense, ranking 2nd in rush defense DVOA but 22nd in pass defense DVOA.If the Seahawks do put up points in this game, it’s likely to come through passing production. A risky play, but could be a great differentiator if you play popular RBs, WRs or TEs this week.
Contrarian plays: Taylor Heinicke ($7,100) & Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900)
James Conner ($7,300)
In 3 straight games without Chase Edmonds before the bye, Conner played over 75% of the Cardinals snaps and got 20+ carries in 2 of those matchups. He posted great fantasy production even without Kyler Murray, who is likely to return this week after a 3-game absence. Additionally, FanDuel’s half PPR scoring favors players who score and Conner leads all RBs with 12 rushing TDs.
Saquon Barkley ($7,200)
While Saquon didn’t have a monster game last week, he did regain his previous workhorse role:
- 87% of snaps
- 72% of routes
- 85% of long down & distance snaps
- 18 opportunities
He has a workhorse role with a tendency to break long runs. At sub 5% ownership, he is my favorite tournament play as leverage away from chalkier RBs in his price range (Eli Mitchell, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, Myles Gaskin & David Montgomery).
David Montgomery ($6,600)
RBs with usage like David Montgomery’s shouldn’t be $6,600. Since returning from injury, Montgomery has played 85%, 95% and 84% of snaps but hasn’t scored a TD. The Cardinals rank 13th in adjusted fantasy points allowed and Montgomery is due for a bounce back.
Antonio Gibson ($6,200)
Gibson recorded a career-high 36 touches on Monday against Seattle.This backfield will be without J.D. McKissic this week. The Raiders defense ranks 3rd worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and is a run funnel defense, ranking 18th in rush defense DVOA but 4th in pass defense DVOA. Gibson projects to be very popular, so pairing him with a lesser owned play like Saquon Barkley is optimal.
Cheap plays: Sony Michel ($5,300) if Darrell Henderson is out & Nyheim Hines ($5,300)
Cooper Kupp ($9,000)
Kupp is the same price on FanDuel and DraftKings, which makes him a great value play on FanDuel. He’s currently the highest point-per-dollar value in our projections. In a tough matchup last week he had one of his lowest scoring fantasy games this season — but still managed 7 catches for 96 yards on 10 targets. This week's matchup is much more favorable against a Jaguars team that is currently 32nd in pass defense DVOA.
DK Metcalf ($7,300)
Along with Russell Wilson, Metcalf presents a similar leverage opportunity. Many players will be hesitant to play Metcalf due to the Seahawks' lack of scoring in recent weeks. However, Metcalf’s primary matchup according to PFF is Josh Norman, who ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash nearly 10 years ago at the Combine. The speed mismatch alone is enough for me to take a shot on a long Metcalf TD this week. Additionally, Metcalf is the same price as Mike Evans, who projects to be one of the highest-owned WRs on the main slate.Additionally, Metcalf is in the same price range as more popular options like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Ja’Marr Chase.
Marquise Brown ($7,100)
Brown has 4 straight games of 10+ targets but has only managed 88 receiving yards over the last 2 games. Lamar Jackson is 3 of 18 on throws of 15+ yards in the past three, but before this stretch, he was completing 47% of throws beyond 15 yards. The Steelers rank 6th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Hunter Renfrow ($6,400)
Renfrow has seen 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games. The Washington Football team ranks bottom 5 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and Darren Waller has already been ruled out for this game.
Marvin Jones ($5,600)
Dan Arnold suffered a season-ending injury last week, joining Jamal Agnew on the IR. In the first 3 games of the season before Arnold arrived, Jones commanded 29 targets. The Rams are bottom 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and Jones may be in for a 25+% target share going forward.
T.J. Hockenson ($6,100)
When the target leader for a team goes down, we usually see the other established target getters benefit. D’Andre Swift has led the Lions in targets this season, and with him out of the lineup, Hockenson could see an increased target share.
Foster Moreau ($5,000)
Moreau is expected to walk into a large role without Darren Waller in the lineup.With Waller sidelined in Week 7, Moreau played 100% of the Raiders snaps, commanded 6 targets and scored a TD. Expected to be the chalk at TE, if you play Moreau, you’ll need to differentiate in other places.
If you have the salary: George Kittle ($6,300) & Kyle Pitts ($6,200)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,300)
The Bucs have all 3 starting corners in their lineup this week for the first time since Week 1. The first matchup against the Falcons in Week 2 yielded the Bucs 2 defensive TDs. Matt Ryan has a 73.8% protection rate this season, which ranks 34th among QBs.
Also consider: Texans ($3,300) & Miami ($4,000)