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Week 14 DraftKings Picks

By Jared Smola 10:12am EST 12/6/19


QB

Cash Cornerstone

Ryan Tannehill, Titans ($5,800)

Since taking over as Tennessee's starter in Week 7, Tannehill has averaged 23.1 DraftKings points per game. Only 3 QBs on the main slate (Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes) are beating that mark over the course of the season.

Tannehill has completed a sterling 72.7% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and posted a 6.8% TD rate over that span. Those numbers are likely to regress — but maybe not this week.

Tannehill gets an excellent matchup against a Raiders squad sitting 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings, 20th in DK points allowed to QBs and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

You can consider moving up to Deshaun Watson ($6,500) or Jameis Winston ($6,400), or down to Derek Carr ($5,000). But Tannehill is a nice starting point for your cash-game lineup.


Tournament Targets

Jameis Winston, Buccaneers ($6,400)

Positive game script last week resulted in Winston’s 1st real fantasy dud since Week 2. That figures to suppress his ownership this week.

Winston still ranks 4th among main-slate QBs in DK points per game. He’s topped 23 points in 6 of 12 games. And his volume should rebound this week at home for the Colts. The game has a 3-point spread with a nice 47.5-point over/under.

I prefer Mike Evans ($7,200) over Chris Godwin ($7,300) as the Winston stack this week. The Colts have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to outside WRs but the 5th fewest to slots over last 8 weeks.

Baker Mayfield, Browns ($6,300)

A lot has gone wrong for Mayfield and the Browns this year. But the schedule hasn’t helped.

Mayfield has faced just 1 defense ranked among the bottom 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. That was the Dolphins — and Mayfield came away from that one with 27.8 DK points.

He gets his 2nd bottom-10 QB defense on Sunday when the Bengals come to town. Cincinnati ranks 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, 25th in DK points allowed and 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.

Stack Baker with Jarvis Landry ($6,500) and Odell Beckham ($6,300), who are both solid values.



RB

Cash Cornerstones

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($10,300)

CMC turned in his 2nd worst game of the season last week … and still scored 17.2 DraftKings points. It was just his 2nd outing of the year with fewer than 21.7 points.

McCaffrey’s price dropped $200 for a rematch with a Falcons team that he scored 33.1 points against just a few weeks ago. He’s not a must-play in cash this week because there aren’t many cheap RBs or WRs to use. But it’s definitely worth trying to get CMC into lineups.

Leonard Fournette, Jaguars ($7,800)

McCaffrey leads all RBs with 96 targets. You know who ranks 2nd? This guy.

Fournette is averaging 6.8 targets per game. That number has spiked to 8.6 over the past 5 games. And that’s all on top of his 18.3 carries per game.

Fournette is still underpriced for the elite usage he’s seeing. He’s also in a nice spot this week at home for the Chargers, who rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, 26th in DK points allowed to RBs and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Melvin Gordon, Chargers ($6,400)

Attacking the Jaguars run defense has worked all season. Even Peyton Barber tagged ‘em for 18.4 DK points last week. Jacksonville is allowing 5.3 yards per carry to RBs on the season — and 6.1 over the last 4 games. Plus they just sent LB Myles Jack to IR.

Gordon gets to feast on this run defense in Week 14. He’s carried 20+ times in 3 of his last 4 games and averaged a decent 3.3 targets over that span.


Tournament Targets

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($5,800)

After operating as more of a 2-down grinder for the first 11 games of the season, Mixon got something much closer to a workhorse role in Week 13. He played a season-high 80% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps and ran a pass route on a season-high 55% of drop backs. Mixon came away from that one with 19 carries and 4 targets.

If that usage continues, Mixon has the potential to smash at this price tag. Sunday’s matchup is fine against the Browns, who sit 23rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings.

Sony Michel, Patriots ($5,600)

If Bill Belichick is smart — and I’m pretty sure he is — he’ll attack the Chiefs on the ground this weekend. Kansas City sits 6th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings but 30th against the run.

Attacking the Chiefs on the ground is exactly what the Pats did last year. They went 51% run across their 2 meetings. That resulted in huge 24-106-2 and 29-113-2 rushing lines for Michel.

His lack of passing-game involvement takes him out of play for cash games. But get some exposure to Michel’s big rushing ceiling in tournaments.



WR

Cash Cornerstones

Julian Edelman, Patriots ($7,100)

Only Michael Thomas has seen more targets this year than Edelman’s 124. And it’s been a steady stream: 10+ targets in 7 straight and 9 of 12 overall.

Don’t let the Chiefs’ #4 ranking in DraftKings points allowed to WRs scare you. Kansas City has been a top 5 defense against outside WRs but allowed the 7th most fantasy points to slot receivers. Edelman, of course, has run 68% of his routes from the slot this year.

Jamison Crowder, Jets ($5,300)

He feels a little scary after totaling just 6.6 DK points over the past 2 weeks. But Crowder rebounded from 4 targets in Week 12 to 9 in Week 13. He’s now averaging 6.9 targets across the last 8 games with QB Sam Darnold.

Crowder gets a rematch on Sunday with the Dolphins team he beat for an 8-83-1 line back in Week 9. Miami ranks 28th in DK points allowed to WRs and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed.


Tournament Targets

Jarvis Landry, Browns ($6,500)

Odell Beckham is in play for tournaments, too. But I prefer Landry at lower ownership.

He now leads the Browns and ranks 10th among all WRs with 108 targets. Showing better chemistry with QB Baker Mayfield than OBJ, Landry has seen 10+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games.

And he gets a pristine matchup this weekend against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the 6th most fantasy points to slot receivers.

Will Fuller, Texans ($5,500)

We know Fuller has tournament-winning upside. Remember that 56.7-point outing back in Week 5?

This could be another blowup spot. Broncos CB Chris Harris figures to shadow WR DeAndre Hopkins this weekend. That’ll leave Fuller matched up with CBs Isaac Yiadom and Will Parks, who rank 114th and 73rd in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades among 133 qualifying CBs.

I’ll take my chances on Fuller in those matchups.



TE

Cash Cornerstone

Ian Thomas, Panthers ($2,500)

TE Greg Olsen will miss Sunday’s game against the Falcons with his concussion, leaving Thomas as Carolina’s lead TE. In the 9 games Olsen either missed or left early last year, Thomas averaged 5.3 targets, 3.9 catches and 35.5 yards. That included 25 catches over the final 5 games of the season.

Thomas was a 4th-rounder last year out of Indiana. He averaged 14.4 yards per catch across 2 college seasons and earned a 91st percentile SPARQ score at the Combine. There’s upside here.

It’s worth noting that interim HC Perry Fewell said this week that Chris Manhertz and Alex Armah will also get reps at TE on Sunday. But Manhertz owns just 5 NFL catches since arriving in 2014. Armah is a fullback.


Tournament Target

George Kittle, 49ers ($5,900)

Kittle is down to his lowest price since Week 6 but still doesn’t figure to garner big ownership.

I like this spot in New Orleans. The 49ers’ passing volume might get a boost if they fall behind. And the Saints are tougher on WRs than TEs. They sit 15th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings, 14th in DK points allowed to TEs and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

In their last 5 games, the Saints have allowed the following TE lines:

3-88 to Charles Clay

4-17-1 to Austin Hooper

10-73 to Cameron Brate

5-44 to Greg Olsen

4-41-1 to Jaeden Graham



DST

Cash Cornerstone

Colts ($2,400)

The Bucs have turned it over at least once in 7 straight games. They’ve turned it over 3+ times in 4 of those 7. And only 6 teams have allowed more sacks this season.

So it’s no surprise that Tampa ranks 25th in DK points allowed to DSTs and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

The Colts have averaged a decent 6.8 DK points per game this season — 14th among main-slate DSTs. They rank 14th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA and 9th in weighted DVOA, which puts a greater emphasis on recent performance.


Tournament Target

Texans ($3,300)

The Texans are 9.5-point home favorites against the Broncos, who sport the week’s 3rd lowest implied total at 16.75.

QB Drew Lock turned it over just once in his debut last week. But he averaged an ugly 4.8 yards per attempt and ranked 26th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades. There’s implosion potential in Lock’s 1st road start.


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