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Week 15 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 10:24pm EST 12/15/23

Quarterback

Matt Stafford, Rams ($6,000)

This is the biggest passing mismatch on the week based on DVOA over the last five weeks.

The Commanders' pass defense has been pathetic all season, but it’s been even worse lately. Washington ranks dead last by a wide margin in pass defense DVOA over the last five weeks.

The Rams, meanwhile, rank second in pass offense DVOA over the last five weeks. Stafford has averaged 248 passing yards and 2.8 TDs per game during that stretch.

Los Angeles’ 28.5-point implied total is the second-highest on the main slate – more than two points ahead of the No. 3 implied total. 

  

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($9,300)

Only McCaffrey can run for 145 yards and feel underwhelming.

That's exactly what happened last week, when CMC scored "only" 19.3 DraftKings points. He was held out of the end zone for just the second time all season and finished with a season-low one catch.

McCaffrey was most definitely not held out of the end zone by the Cardinals earlier this season. In fact, he scored four times in that one for a massive 51.7-point outing.

Arizona’s run defense has actually been worse over the last five weeks of the season than the first nine, according to DVOA.

McCaffrey’s 49ers are 12.5-point favorites with a week-high 30.25-point implied total.

Kyren Williams, Rams ($7,500)

Williams is getting truly absurd usage.

Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged:

  • 20.7 carries
  • 5.0 targets
  • 24.2 expected PPR points per game

That’s over three more expected points per game than any other RB during that stretch. McCaffrey, by comparison, is at 17.5 expected points per game over the last three weeks and 19.7 on the season. 

The Commanders played solid run defense early on this year but are down to 18th in run defense DVOA over the last five weeks, coughing up 4.5 yards per carry to RBs.

Playing both Williams and QB Matt Stafford should allow us to soak up all the TDs for a Rams team implied for 28.5 points.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($5,800)

Speaking of absurd usage.

Elliott racked up 22 carries and eight targets on a 91% snap rate with RB Rhamondre Stevenson out last week.

Stevenson will be sidelined again this Sunday, leaving Zeke in a workhorse role against a Chiefs squad ranked dead last in run defense DVOA over the last five weeks.

The Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs. But Elliott’s passing-game role keeps his floor relatively high. 

Also consider:

  • Antonio Gibson, Commanders ($5,200)

  

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,300)

Another Ram!

Nacua has incredibly registered a target share of at least 20% in all 13 games this season. He’s seen at least seven targets in every game.

So there are very few safer volume bets at WR.

And Nacua gets a dream matchup on Sunday against the Commanders’ 32nd-ranked WR defense. Washington has allowed 10 WR games of 20+ DraftKings points this season.

Jayden Reed, Packers ($4,900)

Reed is getting excellent cash-game usage.

He’s averaged 7.3 targets plus 2.3 carries over his last four games. That includes a season-high 10 targets and four carries last week sans WR Christian Watson, who is out again this Sunday.

Reed has registered a 4.4-yard average target depth over those last four outings, which caps his ceiling but raises the floor. He’s caught 69% of his targets during this stretch.

Sunday brings an excellent matchup vs. the Bucs’ 30th-ranked WR defense.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants ($3,700)

Robinson is coming off a season-best 17.5-point outing last week.

But his usage had been trending up before that. Robinson has registered three of his four highest route rates of the season over the past three weeks and tallied a 24% target share over that span.

Now comes a Saints defense that we’ve been targeting with slot receivers all season. Slot CB Alontae Taylor ranks 81st among 93 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.

Also consider:

  • Rashee Rice, Chiefs ($6,100)
  • Garrett Wilson, Jets ($5,800)

  

Tight Ends

Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($2,900)

Okonwko has drawn 5+ targets in three straight games and four of the last five.

And he’s seen a boost in playing time with TE Josh Whyle sidelined. Okonkwo ran a route on 63% of Titans pass plays when Whyle exited in Week 13 and then spiked to a 76% route rate with Whyle out last week.

Whyle is out again for Sunday’s game vs. the Texans, who rank 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

  

Defense/Special Teams

Jets ($2,500)

The Jets have faced a bunch of high-end offenses this season:

  • Bills twice
  • Cowboys
  • Chiefs
  • Eagles
  • Dolphins
  • Texans

Yet they still rank third among main-slate DSTs in DraftKings points per game.

Most recently, the Jets have scored 12 points vs. the Texans and 13 vs. the Dolphins.

They get a rematch this weekend against the Fins, who have a banged-up offensive line and a banged-up Tyreek Hill.

Also consider:

  • Rams ($3,100)

   

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