Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,600)
Over the last 5 weeks, Mixon ranks …
- 1st in carries
- 2nd in rushing yards
- 6th in rushing TDs
- 23rd in targets
- 28th in catches
- 17th in receiving yards
- 6th in PPR points
He’s underpriced for a pristine matchup against a Dolphins defense ranked dead last in DraftKings points allowed to RBs. Miami has allowed a RB to hit 21+ points in 3 of the past 4 weeks.
DeAndre Washington, Raiders ($4,000)
His price hasn’t been adjusted for Josh Jacobs getting ruled out for Week 16, so Washington is your cash-game lock.
When Jacobs missed Week 14, Washington played 63% of Oakland’s offensive snaps, ran a route on 55% of Derek Carr’s drop backs and handled 14 carries and 7 targets. He scored 21.6 DK points in that one.
Washington should play a similar role this weekend vs. a Chargers squad sitting 23rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and 22nd in DK points allowed to RBs.
Marlon Mack, Colts ($6,200)
Mack has totaled just 57 rushing yards in his 2 games back from that broken hand. But he’s faced the Bucs and Saints, who sit 2nd and 6th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Mack handled 71% of the Colts’ RB carries in those 2 games, so we can safely say that he remains the clear lead ball-carrier here.
And now he’s in just about the best spot possible: at home as a 6.5-point favorite against a pathetic Panthers run defense. Carolina ranks dead last in both Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Just over the past 5 weeks, the Panthers have coughed up 726 yards and 9 TDs on 5.7 yards per carry to RBs.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons ($6,000)
We saw Freeman capitalize on that Panthers matchup 2 weeks ago, tallying 19.4 DK points. He’s in another great spot this weekend at home for Jacksonville. The Jags are down to 31st in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and have allowed 5.7 yards per carry over the last 5 weeks.
Freeman has seen solid volume since returning from injury, averaging 15.3 carries and 4 targets over the past 3 weeks.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers ($5,600)
I almost included him as a cash-game play — but I’ll highlight Gordon here because it looks like he’ll come in surprisingly low owned.
That’s probably because he’s coming off a disappointing 9.4-point outing against the Vikings. We knew that was a tough spot, though. And Gordon had scored 19.4 DK points in 3 of his previous 5.
That stretch included a 23.3-point effort against the Raiders. Gordon’s Chargers are 7-point home favorites with a nice 26.25-point implied total for the rematch.
Todd Gurley ($6,300) and Devin Singletary ($5,500) are the only 2 guys on this slate resembling feature backs — and they face the #1 and #2 defenses in DK points allowed to RBs.
Singletary still pops as the top dollars-per-point value, though. He’s played 70+% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in 5 straight games, averaging 17.6 carries, 3.6 targets and 14.2 DK points over that span. New England is more susceptible to the run than the pass and just coughed up 136 rushing yards to Joe Mixon last week.
On the other side of that game, Sony Michel ($4,600) is worth considering in tournaments. Like New England, the Bills are much weaker vs. the run than the pass. Football Outsiders ranks Buffalo just 19th in run defense (vs. 3rd in pass defense). With QB Tom Brady struggling and WR Julian Edelman hobbled by a knee injury, this should be a run-heavy game plan from the Patriots. Michel has carried 15+ times in 9 of 14 games this season, including a 17-carry, 63-yard effort vs. the Bills back in Week 4.