Week 16 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) + JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800) + Travis Kelce ($8,000)
Geno Smith ($5,800) + D.K. Metcalf ($7,100) + Marquise Goodwin ($4,300) or Noah Fant ($3,400)
Scan the dollars-per-point rankings on either the Weekly Rankings or Lineup Generator and you’ll see a bunch of Chiefs and Seahawks at or near the top. That makes this a natural spot to attack. And it looks like the ownership will be lower than it should be – with the Giants-Vikings game attracting as much or maybe even more attention.
Seahawks-Chiefs has the highest over/under on the main slate at 49.5 points. It’s gonna be chilly in Kansas City, but winds are expected to be around just 10 mph. So weather shouldn’t impact this game much, if at all.
I don’t need to tell you that Mahomes and Kelce bring elite ceilings. But Smith-Schuster looks like an especially strong play at 8% projected ownership. He’s racked up 19 catches on 21 targets over the last 2 weeks, scoring 22.4 and then 17.8 DK points. Dating further back, he’s averaged 8.3 targets on a 19.5% share over his last 7 full, healthy games. The Seahawks rank 3rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs on the season but have slumped to 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.
The Seahawks will be without WR Tyler Lockett for this one, which dings Smith’s ceiling a bit. But it also makes Metcalf a stronger play – and gives us a couple of cheap stacking options in Goodwin and Fant.
Goodwin should be close to an every-snap player with Lockett sidelined. He’s been efficient this season, with a 71% catch rate and 14.3 yards per catch. And, when Metcalf missed most of Week 7, Goodwin came away with a 4-67-2 line.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($7,200)
If we’re fading popular Vikings passing stacks in tournaments, we can get additional leverage by playing Cook. Every rushing TD he scores is a TD not being scored by Minnesota’s passing game.
It’s a better matchup for Cook anyway. The Giants rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks, bleeding 5.3 yards per carry to RBs over that span.
Cook has been getting workhorse usage for a while now, averaging 17.0 carries and 4.0 targets over his last 8 games.
Miles Sanders, Eagles ($6,200)
Here’s another leverage spot, with the Eagles’ Gardner Minshew-led passing game expected to carry some ownership. Sanders is projected to be just 8% owned.
There’s a chance that Hurts’ absence is actually good news for Sanders. We could see the Eagles lean further toward the run with Minshew under center. And Hurts definitely leaves behind TD opportunity. He’s hogged 44% of Philadelphia’s carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and 56% of carries inside the 5 this season.
The Cowboys rank a middling 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks and coughed up a 18-71-1 rushing line to Sanders back in Week 6.
D’Andre Swift, Lions ($5,500)
My podcast partner Matt Schauf astutely noted on the Week 16 Preview that Swift and Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon are getting similar usage lately. Why do I bring that up here? Because Swift is $400 cheaper than McKinnon this week and projected for about half the ownership.
That makes Swift a strong tournament play. He garnered 8 carries and 9 targets last week and has now tallied 18, 20 and 17 opportunities (carries + targets) in 3 games off the injury report this season, scoring 29.5, 21.1 and 12.5 DK points. Swift is off the Week 16 injury report.
He gets a Panthers defense on Sunday that sits 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ RB coverage rankings.
Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($8,800), Derrick Henry ($8,600), Nick Chubb ($7,700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,100), Tony Pollard ($7,000), Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000), Jerick McKinnon ($5,900), J.K. Dobbins ($5,800), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)
Darius Slayton, Giants ($5,200)
If you’re looking to full stack or even mini stack the Giants-Vikings game, consider Slayton on the New York side.
He managed just 23 scoreless yards last week. But he ran a route on 100% of Giants pass plays and garnered 7 targets (23% share). Slayton has tallied 6+ targets in 6 of his last 8 games.
He gets a Vikings defense that ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and dead last against outside receivers. Slayton has played 70% of his snaps on the outside this year.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders ($3,900)
Washington is implied for 15.5 points in San Francisco on Saturday. So this clearly isn’t an offense to target.
But I do think Dotson makes sense at this price point. The rookie has totaled 15 targets (21% share) over his last 2 games, trailing WR Terry McLaurin by just 3 for the team lead.
Dotson has flashed upside – at least relative to this price – throughout the season, with games of 18.0, 17.9, 16.4 and 23.5 DK points. And as well as the 49ers defense is playing, they still rank just 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Dotson is projected for 8% ownership.
Also consider: Justin Jefferson ($9,300), D.K. Metcalf ($7,100), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800), D.J. Moore ($5,500), Marquise Goodwin ($4,300), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100), Nelson Agholor ($3,300)
There’s not much to like at TE, price considered, this week. So it’s a good week to just correlate your TE with your QB in many cases.
So I’ll be focusing on Travis Kelce ($8,000) and Noah Fant ($3,400).
I highlighted Fant’s spot above. As for Kelce, he’s currently projected for modest 14% ownership. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes in even lower than that, with folks looking to jam in Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Justin Jefferson.
We haven’t seen a true blowup game from Kelce since Week 11. But he still boasts 30-point upside – especially this week against a Seahawks defense that sits 32nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and 28th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings.
Also consider: Mark Andrews ($5,500), T.J. Hockenson ($4,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,500), Dawson Knox ($4,100)
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