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Week 16 FanDuel Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:07pm EST 12/25/21


We’re set up for another low-scoring week on the main slate.Only 2 of 11 games have an over/under greater than 45 points and only one team has a team implied total above 27 points. The big decision point this week is how to handle the value plays at RB in tournaments.Picking the wrong chalk to use in lineups could be the difference between winning and losing in Week 16 GPPs.

Let’s ride.


QBs

Josh Allen ($8,500)

Allen will not be a popular option for many tournament players. The Patriots' defense has been very stingy against QBs, allowing the fewest adjusted fantasy points to the position. Allen isn’t advised for cash games due to the matchup but his ceiling projection of 26.3 is second in our lineup generator due to his rushing ability.

Matthew Stafford ($7,900)

Stafford has 4 straight games with 2 or more passing TDs and has thrown 250+ yards in 3 of his last 4 as well. The Vikings are allowing the 5th most adjusted fantasy points allowed to fantasy QBs and the most adjusted fantasy points to fantasy WRs. This matchup has the highest over/under of any game on the main slate.

Joe Burrow ($7,100)

Burrow threw for 400 yards and 3 TDs in Week 7 and the Ravens have since lost Marlon Humphrey. Joe Mixon is entering this game with an ankle injury, which should lead the Bengals towards passing. The two games this season Mixon has been questionable entering were Week 5 against GB and Week 13 against the Chargers. Burrow threw 38 and 40 passes, respectively, in those games.

Also consider: Justin Herbert ($8,400) & Matt Ryan ($6,800)


RBs

James Robinson ($8,200)

On DraftKings, Robinson is expected to be one of the highest owned RBs due to his cheap price tag.On FanDuel he’s priced among the elite RBs which will keep his ownership from reaching a high level. Outside of the Texans' RBs in Week 12, the Jets have allowed a top 15 finish by the opposing team’s starting RB in every game since Week 5. Robinson has reclaimed his elite workload since Urban Meyer’s firing and should be in for a top 5 week.

Saquon Barkley ($7,000)

Barkley is a great option if you’re looking for a contrarian play to reduce some ownership. Playing Barkley allows you to jam in chalk like Justin Jackson, Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, etc. The Eagles rank 12th in adjusted fantasy points allowed and Barkley is coming off a season-high 23 opportunities including 8 targets.

Javonte Williams ($6,300)

The Raiders defense is currently allowing the 3rd most adjusted fantasy points to the RB position. Teams are currently running against the Raiders at the 11th highest rate, leading to big games from Nick Chubb, the Chiefs backfield, and the Washington RBs in the past 3 weeks. Williams has usurped Melvin Gordon’s role as the 3rd down back and despite them splitting carries, he has out-targeted Gordon 10-3 since the Broncos bye week.

Justin Jackson ($5,400)

Jackson out-carried Austin Ekeler and played 54% of the snaps with Ekeler limited last Thursday. With Ekeler out due to COVID-19 on Sunday, Jackson should absorb the primary pass-catching RB role that Ekeler has. The Texans' defense ranks 6th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and has allowed RB1 performances to James Robinson and Rashaad Penny the last two games.

Also consider: Damien Harris ($6,600) & David Montgomery ($6,600)


WRs

Justin Jefferson ($8,400)

Jefferson hasn’t commanded fewer than 9 targets since Week 9. This game has the highest over/under on the slate of 48.5. The Jalen Ramsey matchup may scare some people, but Ramsey hasn’t shadowed anyone outside of Davante Adams, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf since arriving in LA.

Keenan Allen ($7,700)

6 of Keenan Allen’s last 7 games he’s seen double-digit targets. The Chargers have the highest implied point total of the main slate and with Austin Ekeler out, that may free up a few extra targets to his already elite 27% target share. Keenan Allen faces Desmond King, who’s allowed a 70% catch rate and saw Tyler Lockett post nearly 150 yards and a TD against him 2 weeks ago.

Odell Beckham Jr ($6,600)

The Vikings have allowed the most adjusted fantasy points to fantasy WRs this season and OBJ is a great leverage play away from Cooper Kupp. If Beckham scores and Kupp doesn’t, that should provide a differentiator for Matthew Stafford stacks or one-off plays.

Marquise Brown ($6,400)

Brown has had no games in the past 7 weeks with fewer than 7 targets and 5 games during that span with double-digit targets. Even with Josh Johnson starting, Brown has established himself as a high ceiling option due to his top 10 target share. Recently, his average depth of target has been low, but the Bengals were the last team to allow a 40+ yard catch to Hollywood back in Week 7. High target totals and potential for long TDs always make Brown a great GPP play.

Cheaper plays: Darnell Mooney ($6,000) & Van Jefferson ($6,300)


TEs

Dawson Knox ($6,100)

Knox should be the beneficiary of both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis being out with COVID. The Patriots and JC Jackson may contain Stefon Diggs, but Josh Allen should still produce. Knox ranks top 6 in both red-zone targets and deep targets despite missing 3 games this season.

Kyle Pitts ($5,900)

Pitts has the #1 air yards share among TEs with 29% of his team’s total. The Lions are expected to start Tim Boyle, which should mean the Falcons dominate the time of possession. Plus the Lions defense has allowed 8 TE1 performances this season.

Punt play: Evan Engram ($5,000)


DSTs

Raiders ($3,900)

The Raiders are home against Drew Lock. Last season, Lock ranked top 6 in both danger plays and interceptable passes despite only starting 13 games.

Spend up: Buccaneers ($4,700) vs Cam Newton


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