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Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 10:41pm EST 12/30/23

Stacks

Brock Purdy ($7,000) + Deebo Samuel ($7,700) OR Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000)

Purdy is in the midst of one of the most efficient QB seasons of all time. His current 9.7 yards per attempt would be the best mark in NFL history.

Sunday brings a matchup against one of the worst pass defenses we’ve seen at least in recent memory. The Commanders roll into Week 17 ranked:

  • 31st in passing yards allowed
  • 32rd in passing TDs allowed
  • 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed
  • 32nd in pass defense DVOA

Washington, not surprisingly, ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

This defense also ranks last in adjusted points allowed to WRs, so it’s an excellent spot for both Samuel and Aiyuk.

It’s been tricky to pinpoint which guy will have the bigger game on a week-to-week basis, so I’d recommend playing a Purdy team with Samuel and a Purdy team with Aiyuk.

I wouldn’t, however, play both WRs with Purdy. As awesome as this 49ers offense has been this season, Samuel and Aiyuk have yet to top 22 DraftKings points in the same game.

Matt Stafford ($6,600) + Cooper Kupp ($8,100)

There are bound to be strong plays that get overlooked on a 13-game slate.

This stack looks like one of them this week. Current ownership projections have Stafford at 1% and Kupp at 3%.

Stafford is playing as well as any QB in football right now. In fact, he leads all QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade over the past five weeks.

Stafford has averaged 22.6 DK points per game during that stretch, with at least 22.9 in four of the five.

His Rams have a 24.75-point implied total – fifth-highest on the main slate – against a Giants squad that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA.

This looks like a particularly good matchup for Stafford against a blitz-heavy defense. Stafford owns the league’s fifth-highest PFF passing grade vs. the blitz this season; third highest over the last five weeks.

You could certainly stack Stafford with Puka Nacua. But I’ll go with the guy who isn’t questionable on this week’s injury report.

Kupp tallied just 10.9 DK points last week – but just missed two TDs. He scored 28.5 and 28.1 DK points in the previous two games.

Also consider:

  • C.J. Stroud ($7,100) + Nico Collins ($7,200)
  • Derek Carr ($5,500) + Chris Olave ($6,800) + Rashid Shaheed ($4,600)
  • Tyrod Taylor ($4,600) + Darren Waller ($4,500)

 

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,800)

DFS players tend to underreact to late news. I expect that to be the case with Pacheco this week.

He was off the DFS radar for most of the week, with plenty of folks ready to bite the bullet and play Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

But Pacheco has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and is set to play vs. the Bengals.

It’s an excellent spot. The Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites with a 25.25-point implied total – fourth-highest on the main slate – against a bad Cincinnati run defense.

The Bengals rank 28th in run defense DVOA and have coughed up 4.5 YPC to RBs. They’ve allowed five RBs to top 20 DK points this season, with three of those coming over the last seven weeks.

If Pacheco had been healthy all week, I’d have expected to him be somewhere around 15% owned. With the late news that he’ll play, I bet he comes in around half of that ownership.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($6,500)

The Eagles are sporting a big 30-point implied total for Sunday’s home game vs. the Cardinals. There will be TDs scored by this offense.

Maybe Swift can grab one or two of them? 

He’s seemingly been getting sniped by QB Jalen Hurts all season. But Swift actually ranks eighth among RBs with 8.1 expected rushing TDs. He’s scored five actual rushing TDs.

The Cardinals have allowed the fourth most rushing TDs and most total TDs to RBs. They rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

Also consider:

  • Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($9,600)
  • Kyren Williams, Rams ($8,300)
  • Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,200)
  • Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,400)
  • Zamir White, Raiders ($5,100)

 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,300)

A few factors have Hill coming in at a very reasonable 15% projected ownership:

  1. He’s still working back from an ankle injury.
  2. He draws a good Ravens defense.
  3. Folks would rather play Christian McCaffrey.

But I’d argue that Hill has just as much upside as McCaffrey this week, maybe more.

For starters, he already has six games of 30+ DK points this season. CMC has three. 

The Ravens are not an impossible matchup. They rank a good-not-great 10th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. And they’ve allowed the 15th most yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs (73.5).

And Hill has a truly massive target ceiling with Jaylen Waddle out this week.

With Waddle sidelined back in Week 3, Hill drew 11 targets and posted a 9-157-1 line … despite running just 22 routes.

Per Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar, Hill has been targeted on an absurd 47% of his routes with Waddle off the field this season.

Chris Olave, Saints ($6,800)

Olave has scored or topped 100 yards in six straight games. He hasn’t paired a TD with a 100-yard game in any of those contests. In fact, he hasn’t done it all year.

You could say he’s due. And what better time than this weekend’s matchup with the Bucs?

Tampa Bay ranks 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has coughed up 87 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs (fourth most).

Eight WRs have topped 25 DK points against the Bucs this season. Four have gone over 30.

Also consider:

  • Cooper Kupp, Rams ($8,100)
  • Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($7,700)
  • Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,000)
  • Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,500)
  • Chris Godwin, Bucs ($6,100)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, Titans ($6,000)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($4,800)
  • Rashid Shaheed, Cowboys ($4,600)
  • Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($4,200)
  • Michael Wilson, Cardinals ($3,500)

 

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,800)

Like the rest of Philadelphia’s key offensive pieces, Goedert has an elevated ceiling in Sunday’s game vs. Arizona.

The Cardinals rank 11th in DraftKings points allowed to TEs and fifth in adjusted points allowed. But that’s largely because they’ve faced the fourth fewest TE targets.

Arizona sits 30th in TE coverage DVOA. It’s not a scary matchup for Goedert.

He’s drawn nine targets in two straight games. 

Darren Waller, Giants ($4,500)

This is admittedly an uncomfortable play considering how useless Waller has been most of the season. But the best tournament plays are usually uncomfortable.

Waller ran a route on 71% of pass plays last week and is off the Week 17 injury report. He’s seemingly as healthy as he’s been all year.

Waller gets a plus matchup on Sunday against a Rams defense that ranks 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and 24th in TE coverage DVOA.

And the return of QB Tyrod Taylor looks like good news for Waller, who drew a 23% target share across Taylor’s starts in Weeks 6 and 7.

Also consider:

  • Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,000)
  • Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,900)
  • Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($3,600)
  • Gerald Everett, Chargers ($3,500)
  • Austin Hooper, Raiders ($2,500)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Bears ($3,400)

Broncos ($2,900)

Ravens ($2,800)

  

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