Week 3 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Last week was a tough one. A lot of the DFS community was loading the Chargers vs Cowboys game to no avail. When that game produced a mere 37 points, it dinged a lot of the DFS lineups we created. This week's game selection needs to be key. We’re starting to learn the roles and usage of some of these players. With more data than we had last week, hopefully, we can produce better results.
If you can afford Kyler Murray ($8,300) or Lamar Jackson ($7,800), they’re excellent plays. Both guys are in phenomenal matchups. And even though they will be among the highest owned QBs, they have the highest ceilings on the week.
Josh Allen ($7,000)
Projected Ownership: 8.1%
Probably a little risky to play in cash games, Josh Allen hasn’t gotten off to a blazing start so far in 2021. He’s only averaged 5.3 yards per attempt and a true passer rating of 53.0 in his first 2 games.
The Washington defense, while scary on paper, has allowed top 10 yardage passing and rushing in the first 2 games of 2021. Additionally, 1 of those down performances came against Daniel Jones and arguably one of the worst offenses in the NFL. CB Benjamin St. Juste is set to be matched against Stefon Diggs, according to PFF.
This could be the get-right game for Josh Allen and the Bills.
Derek Carr ($5,900)
Projected Ownership: 2.3%
Another QB that’s suited for GPPs only If you need to save money for your lineup. This Raiders offense has looked very good against two strong opponents (BAL and PIT) so far this season. Vegas had a big home-field advantage against Baltimore in Week 1, and Miami playing with a backup QB may lend itself to a time of possession gap between the two teams.
Coming off two straight 25+ point fantasy outings, Carr is worth a shot in GPPs.
Austin Ekeler ($7,200)
Projected Ownership: 14.8%
In a full PPR format like Draft Kings, this matchup is mouthwatering for Ekeler. In the last 4 matchups vs. the Chiefs, he averages 8.5 targets per game. With an over/under of 55 and sharp action on the over, I expect this Chargers offense to go blow for blow with KC.Ekeler is an integral part of that.
Saquon Barkley ($6,500)
Projected Ownership: 12.8%
Saquon Barkley hasn’t hit his big game yet. But his usage last week was an indication that this may be the week. From week 1 to week 2, Saquon jumped from:
48% > 84% snaps
38% > 74% routes
He also regained his monopoly on short down and distance (75% > 100%) and 2-minute drill (0% > 100%).
Last week he had a tougher matchup against the Washington Football Team.This week he has the Falcons, who are giving up points at will and allowing the 7th most DK points to RBs, despite playing Miles Sanders & the Bucs backfield in their first 2 games. Barkley’s ownership won’t be as high on DK as it is on FanDuel ($6,000).
D’Andre Swift ($5,800)
Projected Ownership: 8.4%
Swift is currently sitting among the top 5 RBs in weighted opportunities due to his RB-high 16 targets. Swift being priced as the 15th highest RB in another pass-friendly game script is wild. He has the most valuable role in an offense that will be playing from behind in this one. The Lions look surprisingly competitive on offense so far this year, as well.
Cooper Kupp ($6,800) & Chris Godwin ($6,100)
Projected Ownership: 22.7% & 17.6%
Expected to be two of the higher owner WRs on the slate — and I don’t care. This is a pass-heavy/high-scoring game script and Kupp has the best matchup on the field in slot vs. backup nickel corner Ross Cockrell.
Kupp should be a monster yet again this week. I’m stacking Stafford/Kupp/Higbee and running it back with Godwin.
Godwin has a great matchup in his own right. With Antonio Brown likely out with COVID and Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow Mike Evans, according to PFF, Godwin is expected to see David Long. In 3-WR sets, Ramsey has been the slot corner (over 50% slot snaps), putting him in a match up with Godwin. But with Brown out for this game, the Bucs should use more 2-WR sets, leaving Evans matched up with Ramsey on the outside.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600) & Cole Beasley ($4,800)
Projected Ownership: 13.6% & 3.6%
Ownership will likely be deflated due to the slow start this Bills offense has experienced this season.
Diggs gets Benjamin St. Juste in coverage and Beasley gets Kendall Fuller.Both corners have allowed over 5 receptions and 50 yards in 2 straight games. Josh Allen produced 9 “boom” fantasy games last year, some of those coming against the Rams, Dolphins, 49ers and Broncos defenses.
The Bills are still running a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense that offers a big weekly ceiling perfect for GPPs.
Kenny Golladay ($5,600)
Projected Ownership: 4.6%
The primary matchup for Kenny Golladay is expected to be CB Fabian Moreau, a guy who Mike Evans worked up and down the field last week. The majority of people will be playing Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, but Golladay offers a nice pivot away from those guys. With a 25% target share and a 33% air yard share in last week's game, it’s only a matter of time before Golladay produces.
Dart throws: Van Jefferson ($3,400), K.J Osborn ($3,500) & Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,000)
If I’m going to spend up this week it will be for Darren Waller ($7,400) or TJ Hockenson ($6,300). I’ll be passing on some of the elite options this week.
Tyler Higbee ($4,000)
Projected Ownership: 9.6%
Probably my favorite play of any position this week, Higbee was chalky last week and disappointed tremendously. The Buccaneers defense allowed 120 targets to the TE position last season and the 10th most DK fantasy points overall. With Robert Woods likely in for a difficult matchup, I will be fading him in favor of Higbee in this game.
Logan Thomas ($4,700)
Projected Ownership: 2%
Thomas is currently running a route on more drop backs than any TE in the NFL.
If the Bills offense gets back on track as I discussed for Josh Allen, there’s a good chance that Thomas catches a lot of passes in catch-up mode.
Some cheaper options to consider: Jared Cook ($3,900) & Cole Kmet (3,200)
Tennessee Titans ($2,400)
Projected Ownership: 9%
The Titans defense is objectively bad, but they are at home against either a hobbled Carson Wentz or backups Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley. They should have a great chance at some turnovers in this game.
If you can afford it: Raiders ($3,400) vs. Jacoby Brissett